Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Gaz1985]

Looking forward to Spring now, let's face it - it will soon come around...get into mid January and it seems to be Easter in no time. If it has to be mild I would like some drying out - cannot remember the last fully dry 48 hours. Been miserable now for what seems an eternity.

Edited January 10, 2014 by Gaz1985

[Chris K]

Bleurgh...it really has just felt like a one long autumn here

Still...it has only just approached mid-winter..another half to go yet and even longer for "potential" if you don't mind if it snowed in early spring!!!

[Bobby]

Ouch, that GFS 12z is nasty. Looks like that's easterly #292 going down the plughole over my 9 years model watching

[Bristawl Si]

UK Meto only ones showing consistency this Winter imo.

Other models pants imo.

[Tony27]

Looking forward to Spring now, let's face it - it will soon come around...get into mid January and it seems to be Easter in no time. If it has to be mild I would like some drying out - cannot remember the last fully dry 48 hours. Been miserable now for what seems an eternity.

easter is nearly three months away, i don;t look forward to winter when it's September as winter is still 3 months away

 

yes it has been miserable for an eternity i haven't seen a flake of snow for a year, can you imagine if we didn't see a warm sunny day for a year, getting a reasonable amount of snow here is like lerwick getting a heatwave, i don't know whats more rare a clear warm sunny day in lerwick, or a day of moderate snow here

 

in terms of the models i got caught up in all the excitement even though i have seen many downgrades before, it was the first snow chase of the winter so i naturally got sucked in, but if we see good charts appear at T180+ in future days i advise people not to ramp away on the mod thread, wait till it gets into the T120/96 time frame and even then remain cautious 

 

when i told some people it might get colder with snow next week they all complained as if it was happening again when in reality it hasn't happened here for a year, joe public don't realize how lucky they are that snow is so rare in this country esp the south but they still moan about it as if it is a regular occurrence 

 

i even bought some new warm socks the other day i doubt i will need them now

Edited January 10, 2014 by Tony27

[MP-R]

Easterlies are more successful in this country following a northerly not the other way around. There can't be many occasions when a successful evolution previously shown by the models for next week has actually occurred. The easterlies of Nov & Dec '10, Jan '10 to name a few all began with northerlies to get the cold in first, then the cold was kept in by the easterly. Cold air is always quicker to get in from a proper northerly and more widely felt across the country than easterlies.

[Dibdabbers]

Argggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh grrrrrrrrrrrrrr argghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.. That is all

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

I feel sorry for those in flooded areas i really do if we got some colder weather nice crisp sunny days would of helped a lot of people clearing up mild atlantic weather is not going to help any amount of rain will cause more flooding

[Bobby]

GFS op and control showing a possible pattern change in FI... to a BARTLETT!

 

[Dibdabbers]

GFS op and control showing a possible pattern change in FI... to a BARTLETT!

 

Naked wing walking would be less painful in winter than model watching

[Bobby]

Naked wing walking would be less painful in winter than model watching

 

In a hailstorm...

[Dibdabbers]

In a hailstorm...

In a hailstorm...

Ha ha first thing on this site that's made me smile today

[UV-RAY]

This winter really is pants and I really can't see anything cold happening within the next 2 weeks at least, in fact I don't think we'll see anything other than the odd day or two of cold from now to the end of February. This winter has all the hallmarks of a nineties  winter which predominately was mildish and wet with a few cold days thrown in during February.

Edited January 10, 2014 by Sceptical Inquirer

[conor123]

It wouldn't shock me if that Bartlett came off pretty much identical to that, see a rubbish chart at 300hrs and that general pattern seems to always happen, see and easterly/northerly at 168hrs and can guarantee there's a shortwave to scupper it.

[Gord]

I don't think I've known a working week like this one when it comes to model watching. It's been crazy! Every emotion that the weather models bring has been experienced this week.

 

Dread to think what next week will be like!

[Average Joe]

On Weds I went to the gym for an hour, came back and checked the MAD thread..... in that time it had jumped over 6 pages. Today after two hours only 3 pages..... says it all really.

[MR EXTREMES]

to be perfectly honest im glad its over!

 

all evolution is now set at least we know now that jan is lost cause only a couple of weeks and it be feb...

but fair play to the models they soon realised that the colder outcome was less likely we have cross model agreement which is at least ended round two of the winter of discontent.

Edited January 10, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Carl46Wrexham]

Looking at the main Model thread  I see the dreaded words "zonal reset". If that comes to pass then its game over for January and more than likely at least a fair chunk of February as these zonal spells have the infuriating and soul destroying tendency to stick around for weeks on end.

 

Winter 2013/14 really is fast turning into an unflushable turd. No straw clutching at promising charts at t+384 and wishful thinking is going to change that.

 

Edited January 10, 2014 by Carl46Wrexham

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still hoping for cold and snow somewhere between very end of Jan to mid Apr, too early for cold yet, as I said before Xmas, models will not show cold until near the end of Jan at the earliest

 

winter not started yet, I hope it will not be mild

[Polar Front]

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/442873/Coldest-winter-in-modern-times-on-way-with-snow-forecast-for-Britain-starting-next-week

 

Comical! 

[CongletonHeat]

GFS op and control showing a possible pattern change in FI... to a BARTLETT!

 

Best chart of the winter so far.

[Gord]

Wush I had decided decided to have stayed away from the models for this week. Would have logged off Sunday night...come back on now and would just be thinking that we were still stuck in the same old rut. Would never have known the journey we have been on!

 

Ah well...back to the Midlands thread to see how much rain Telford isn't getting!

Edited January 10, 2014 by Gord

[mike Meehan]

Still hoping for cold and snow somewhere between very end of Jan to mid Apr, too early for cold yet, as I said before Xmas, models will not show cold until near the end of Jan at the earliest

 

winter not started yet, I hope it will not be mild

I agree the continent is still too warm at the moment - it appears that winter proper has only got as far as the Urals - if there is a cold spell to come, I would say the end of Jan beginning of Feb - there is just enough time for the near continent to cool down and perhaps we could be treated to some nice dry continental snow - I hate the slushy stuff but the weather gods have their own mind and there is little we can do to affect it.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Best chart of the winter so far.

 

Agree in a way, not snowy but dry! hope to see cold charts for Feb and march/April

[Chris K]

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/442873/Coldest-winter-in-modern-times-on-way-with-snow-forecast-for-Britain-starting-next-week

 

Comical! 

 

This is all their fault in the first place. Weather always does the opposite of their headlines.

 

Edited January 10, 2014 by Chris K