Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[Richie V]

Although not really model related, paul hudson was saying earlier... Harry said, so paul when do we get snow like north america? Paul said, none as far as we can see. He then went on to say... In fact, in the coming days the record cold in the states will intensify further. So here will be calmer than of late at weeks end but theres every sign that powerful atlantic weather will resume sometime next week.

[Richie V]

Hello?

No one commenting on 12z?

Over an hour of silence.

I know I'm good at clearing a room but this is rediculus

Lol

[Bradowl]

Some decent looking charts next door but our local weatherman Paul Hudson just said still no sign of any Snow in next couple of weeks.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

Edited January 6, 2014 by Bradowl

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Feb '03 was snowy here, Feb '09, Feb '07, Feb '12

 

hopefully snow in Feb '14,

[Weather-history]

Just one observation

Is Nick Sussex, the "Navjot Sidhu" of weather model discussion?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I want GFS to show what GEM is showing! although still too far east slightly, still with GFS here things to remain wet, average for January, wetter than Dec with weaker jet systems moving through slower for next 2-3 weeks

 

do agree with TEITS about cold later in Jan, but 20th-23rd probably a little too soon, say more 30th-31st

Edited January 7, 2014 by IrememberAtlantic252

[Bobby]

A wee philosophical musing, why do people 'hunt' for weather, such as cold and snow, as if it were some kind of quarry? You have some control over hunting a quarry but none over the weather. If it's going to snow it's going to snow, if it's not then it's not, whether you look at the charts and hunt for it or not makes no difference at all. So why do people do it? Not having a dig at anyone, I do it myself, just interested why... us humans are strange.

[Dibdabbers]

A wee philosophical musing, why do people 'hunt' for weather, such as cold and snow, as if it were some kind of quarry? You have some control over hunting a quarry but none over the weather. If it's going to snow it's going to snow, if it's not then it's not, whether you look at the charts and hunt for it or not makes no difference at all. So why do people do it? Not having a dig at anyone, I do it myself, just interested why... us humans are strange.

I know what you mean, I rarely look at the weather apart from during the winter. I think its because its so rare to have a decent snowfall it becomes exciting. Like the search for the holy grail, and there is nothing more magical than stepping out in the night when it has snowed, there is a different kind of quiet and a lovely glow to the world. Why wouldn't you search for that :-)

[Bobby]

I know what you mean, I rarely look at the weather apart from during the winter. I think its because its so rare to have a decent snowfall it becomes exciting. Like the search for the holy grail, and there is nothing more magical than stepping out in the night when it has snowed, there is a different kind of quiet and a lovely glow to the world. Why wouldn't you search for that :-)

 

It's magical for sure, wouldn't it be more magical though if it just appeared unexpectedly, as a great surprise, a gift from the blue? If the models show snow and it snows then you expected it already, and it doesn't snow you're dissapointed. If you don't know what's going to happen; if it doesn't snow there's no disapointment and if it does it's a great surprise.

Edited January 7, 2014 by Bobby

[Dibdabbers]

It's magical for sure, wouldn't it be more magical though if it just appeared unexpectedly, as a great surprise, a gift from the blue? If the models show snow and it snows then you expected it already, and it doesn't snow you're dissapointed. If you don't know what's going to happen; if it doesn't snow there's no disapointment and if it does it's a great surprise.

I know what you mean however if I didn't know it was coming I wouldn't be able to set my alarm to watch it fall which I also love.

[Buzz]

Oh dear, what with the relative excitement in the main model thread you just KNOW what's coming next don't you? Either the potential for cold doesn't come off (cue wailing and gnashing of teeth, insults hurled, wrists slashed and prozac devoured), or it does come off but then the IMBY nit-picking begins.

[SnowObsessor90]

To say that I'm not even  remotely irked by the current ongoings over the pond would be a lie, hopefully the models are actually onto something this time around so us Coldies in the UK can also have a turn.

[Gord]

Start of December, we thought we were looking at a month of dry and mild weather. Then the models changed the theme quite quickly.

Start of January, some people think we are looking at a month of wet and stormy weather...

See where I'm going with this? Changes can happen so quickly.

[TyphoonNow]

Am I right in saying that last night's 0Z run and tonights 0Z run should put the same or similar stage of the run forward 24hrs? so a 144 stage would now be 120? Therefore i would expect the weather predicted tonight to be 24hrs closer than last nights?

 

Basically what i mean is why does a cold pattern predicted at say 144hrs seldom get closer the next day but still out to 144hrs? It is infuriating. it something i do not understand. Is it moving back or slower to arrive than previously calculated? 

Edited January 8, 2014 by TyphoonNow

[egret]

 market day in town today, just bought a new toboggan and a huge pile of toys in the sales.

 

Have put the toys into the pram. Now ready and waiting!!!

[paul m]

 market day in town today, just bought a new toboggan and a huge pile of toys in the sales.

 

Have put the toys into the pram. Now ready and waiting!!!

Don't throw them my way........

[SnowObsessor90]

I'm not sure  I can bare to look at this evenings output after that 06z run and it's ensembles not to the ECM ensembles which also seem unsure,  hopefully the Models now firm up on this cold trend and don't end up having yet another climb down.....

Edited January 8, 2014 by SnowObsessor90

[itsnowjoke]

Nobody utter a word of this to anyone ive made the mistake by mouthing off to my kids "theres snow on the way " only to be left with egg on my face....exciting times atm..shussssh

[garbagebags]

Nobody utter a word of this to anyone ive made the mistake by mouthing off to my kids "theres snow on the way " only to be left with egg on my face....exciting times atm..shussssh

Already told everyone at work and my friends and will tell my wife when I get home. We all do it!! 

[cobbett]

Should start a sweepstake on when toys start flying around - i reckon the 12z later will begin a slow backtrack with the usual (happens every time) of  "it's only one run" or "Hope ECM doesn't follow suit" or "it's only the GFS so ignore" blah blah. Hopefully won't happen but it almost invariably does unfortunately !

[Average Joe]

Should start a sweepstake on when toys start flying around - i reckon the 12z later will begin a slow backtrack with the usual (happens every time) of  "it's only one run" or "Hope ECM doesn't follow suit" or "it's only the GFS so ignore" blah blah. Hopefully won't happen but it almost invariably does unfortunately !

Just been in there.....didn't stay long. 

[cobbett]

Well I lost my bet then - thank god !  .

[paul m]

I have started to sell hard hats and prozac for when the next run comes out. Discounts for netweather members of course!!!!

[Dibdabbers]

Ive facebooked it, it's out there. Please don't backtrack..pleeaaassseeeeee

[shaky]

GFS looking like the early stages of the ECM already at 60 hours i.e more pronounced pressure rise to N and Atlantic LP slightly further S&W.

oh man this is getting too tense!!