Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[cheese]

people are looking for cold too soon, no cold will be showing in FI yet, southern areas very rare to see snow before last week of Jan, northern members i suppose normally have had snow by now

 

still hopeful of winter starting around 4 weeks from now, south, maybe earlier north, Feb snowiest month, mar 2nd snowiest month of year

I usually see settling snow in December - 2011, 2012 and 2013 saw no settling snow but 2011 and 2012 saw falling snow at least. As the above poster said, I'm not sure where you're getting these ideas from.

Edited January 3, 2014 by cheese

[Tony27]

people are looking for cold too soon, no cold will be showing in FI yet, southern areas very rare to see snow before last week of Jan, northern members i suppose normally have had snow by now

 

still hopeful of winter starting around 4 weeks from now, south, maybe earlier north, Feb snowiest month, mar 2nd snowiest month of year

so you keep saying, perhaps meteorological winter should be changed to feb, march and april as apparently snow is more likely in those months than in January right, why are we wasting our time looking at the models then, it would be better to come back in march and april and look for a beasterly surely as snow in january is unheard of and is not a winter month

Edited January 3, 2014 by Tony27

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Let's hope they sell out of these in the next few weeks!

[conor123]

Weekly rant: Gosh the charts are worse than Jessie J at the moment it's so tedious, how predictable the exact moment the first proper Scandi and Arctic high's start forming of the winter suddenly the jet conveniently decides to rear it's head hundreds of miles further north after being on the same track for a month.

Edited January 4, 2014 by conor123

[I remember Atlantic 252]

so you keep saying, perhaps meteorological winter should be changed to feb, march and april as apparently snow is more likely in those months than in January right, why are we wasting our time looking at the models then, it would be better to come back in march and april and look for a beasterly surely as snow in january is unheard of and is not a winter month

 

At the moment I am not looking for snow, I am looking and hoping for drier/settled weather, GFS shows it becoming drier, but say in 2 weeks, I will start hoping GFS will start showing cold

I usually see settling snow in December - 2011, 2012 and 2013 saw no settling snow but 2011 and 2012 saw falling snow at least. As the above poster said, I'm not sure where you're getting these ideas from.

 

Your location way more likely than mine to see snow in Dec to mid Jan anyway

[Polar Maritime]

At the moment I am not looking for snow, I am looking and hoping for drier/settled weather, GFS shows it becoming drier, but say in 2 weeks, I will start hoping GFS will start showing cold

 

Your location way more likely than mine to see snow in Dec to mid Jan anyway

 

You did say Southern areas 252..

[BlueHedgehog074]

I should have known the 12Z ECMWF outlook from yesterday was probably overdoing that blocking to our North and North-East. Despite the fact the 00Z ECMWF from today does show a bit of potential around 216 hours with that High Pressure over us and extending into Southern Scandinavia, the positive tilting to those Lows and troughs out in the Atlantic means they seem to end up piling on top of that High pushing it further East. It's possible that if the Lows get diverted even further North and North-East that any new Lows coming in from the Eastern seaboard may then start undercutting the High to our East propping those heights further North/North-East with a South-Easterly or Easterly flow establishing (although that is sort of just guess work). I suppose, to be fair, the next ECMWF run could easily show something different and it's possible that it was just simply being too quick with its cold, blocking solutions yesterday. Nearer to the end of January does seem to be when colder weather is to be expected. Not a 100% guarantee mind you...

 

"Whilst current indications point towards unsettled conditions persisting through much of the rest of January, conditions are not expected to be as stormy as during recent weeks. Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month. This would also increase the potential for more settled conditions leaving a lower risk of wet and windy spells than has recently been the case." - via Met Office 16 - 30 day outlook (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html)

 

Will be interesting to see whether any sledges do end up becoming sold out within a few weeks.

 

And despite what I read regarding the EC32 day outlook (not good news for cold, blocking solutions apparently with a flat(ish) Westerly flow likely to continue), I'm slightly surprised the Met Office haven't backed down much with its suggestion of cooler/colder conditions. Then again, just like the CFS long range model, the EC32 day model can be guilty of chopping and changing a lot, and clearly an outlook 32 days away can be liable to numerous alterations.  It's true, also, that the Met Office seem to have a lot of top-secret data unavailable to the public - some of which is probably pointing towards the possible cooler/colder conditions - so I'm guessing its that, along with the possibility of a Stratopsheric Warming event in the near future (if it happens) to help weaken that Polar Vortex, that explains the possible cool down near the end of the month. It would probably be fair to say, as well, that while not all the operational models today look particularly encouraging for cold, blocked, evolutions, some models, such as the GEM, are keen to build High Pressure to our North...

 

 

Would be handy though to see it remove some of that High Pressure over Europe to our South-East (though it is in Fantasy Island), otherwise we could just see a milder, South-Westerly flow which will please those of you after something not too cold. I think what is clear, however, is that many more model runs will need to be kept an eye on (including the ensembles, ensemble means and anomaly charts) to see how the models continue to handle this possible pattern change . And hopefully for those of you wanting to see the white stuff, the models will have developed favorable blocking for it with Channel lows, polar Lows, explosive North Sea or Irish Sea snow shower setups etc.  

 

Even though models, like the ECMWF, can be a good model for handling blocking to our North-East, while the GFS is apparently better at handling the pressure patterns to our North-West, I think ECMWF does get over-exited when it wants to develop High Latitude Blocking/Scandinavian blocking. As such, if it does end up showing Scandinavian blocking, or other kind of Northern blocking, some caution, I think, should obviously still be applied... unless it keeps showing it, has strong ensemble support and/or other models start supporting it.

[rich1974]

Cool and crisp end to ECM, after all the rain we've had lately a settled spell with be greatly welcomed by many

 

Boring weather on it's way then...shame.

[nick sussex]

Boring weather on it's way then...shame.

At least it will turn colder and we can see the end of the monsoon. Get the cold in and keep it and the snow will come eventually, I'm sure those who have been flooded and had their Xmas ruined will welcome those charts.

 

Not  being bitter but I'm glad theres going to be  a big thaw going on in the eastern USA, should hopefully reduce the jet, sorry USA snow lovers we're done looking at your snowy pics, let the melt begin!

Edited January 4, 2014 by nick sussex

[I remember Atlantic 252]

rich1974 is on my ignore, shame i just seen post, and as expected disagreed with it, really pleased the models are showing drier weather, due to show cold in around 2 weeks

 

agree with all of Nick s's post especially paragraph 2

[Gaz1985]

Wow what a Winter some people are having  , sea ice in the med too 

[bobbydog]

Correct: timing and outcome uncertain. Just to also stress the 30d colder possibility is not based on the nearer-term MOGREPS signal (on another product).

 

 

 

???

Edited January 4, 2014 by bobbydog

[Blizzardof82]

Quick question before the 18z, what is SACRA?

[weather eater]

An informal grouping of cold weather fans, more of a badge than anything else

[nick sussex]

Quick question before the 18z, what is SACRA?

That was set up years ago as a bit of a joke, I think its Snow and Cold Rampers Association but I could be wrong, it was a long time ago!

[weather eater]

That was set up years ago as a bit of a joke, I think its Snow and Cold Rampers Association but I could be wrong, it was a long time ago!

is that dot com or dot co.uk, ltd or PLC

Edited January 4, 2014 by weather eater

[Bobby]

Wow what a Winter some people are having  , sea ice in the med too 

 

Global picture is even worse for us, pfft. Poxy island...

 

Edited January 4, 2014 by Bobby

[R.P. McMurphy]

Wow what a Winter some people are having  , sea ice in the med too 

 

 

Gaz, reporting from the Bar....

[Frosty.]

That was set up years ago as a bit of a joke, I think its Snow and Cold Rampers Association but I could be wrong, it was a long time ago!

In that case i'm joining right now

[Blizzardof82]

Thank you  and I nominate Frosty for membership.

[Snow Queen one]

Hello Frosty did you want a membership number I have been issuing them for ages. I have not been active yet as there has been no call for it.

[Cloud 10]

Thank you  and I nominate Frosty for membership.

 

Frosty for President! 

[DAVID SNOW]

That was set up years ago as a bit of a joke, I think its Snow and Cold Rampers Association but I could be wrong, it was a long time ago!

 

 

Whilst its a little quiet in here remember SATSIGS Nick ?

[nick sussex]

Whilst its a little quiet in here remember SATSIGS Nick ?

OMG I've forgotten what that is! let me know before the mods wield the knife !

[DAVID SNOW]

OMG I've forgotten what that is! let me know before the mods wield the knife !

  Sod All The Science Its Gonna Snow