Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[cheese]

Maybe in your back yard, Tony, but snow in March is not rare at all here. We had more than 'a dusting' in March 2008.

[Winter Cold]

Im just sick of seeing the USA having super cold shot after super cold shot!! They always have a good winter guaranteed.

Sickening living in the UK sometimes!

I was hoping ppl like Peirs Corbyn, Joe Bastardie etc who were saying weve seen the end of the 90s 00s winters were right and things would be nice and cold for the next few decades but from following the model output thread these charts are a snap back in time

[Tony27]

Maybe in your back yard, Tony, but snow in March is not rare at all here. We had more than 'a dusting' in March 2008.

i did mention the south, the person i quoted mentioned the best time for snow in low levels in the south is feb to apr, which is total nonsense, it may be the best time for northerly blocking but other things come into play at that time of year and i'd rather have snow in jan than march or april, but its not up to me of course, slushy sleet/snow showers in the strong march sun don't cut it for me im afraid, a heatwave in june or a heatwave in september is no difference expect it gets dark a bit earlier in sep, its still hot and sunny during the day, snow in dec or jan is more useful than snow in march 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well in my location, snow in March is way more likely than in Dec, April more likely than Dec, Feb the most likely month for snow

 

Early Jan tends to be autumnal, 2002 an exception, anyone know what month the UK has its average pressure at its lowest? and westerlies at their highest frequency? has to be Dec and Jan

[snowblizzard]

It's very rare to see decent snowfall (powder not slush) combined with ice days down South after February! This years brilliant snow & cold during March was due to exceptionally cold upper temps rarely experienced in Spring! Looking back through archives/records, if there's been absolutely no lying snow or freezing conditions by Feb 16 then it's highly unlikely to happen at all, which usually means a snowless winter!

Edited December 31, 2013 by snowblizzard

[Gaz1985]

Not sure why people are dissing Feb to April for snow when statistically it's more likely to fall in February (most especially) and March than December, also this March a lot of places got absolutely hammered with feet upon feet of drifts - yet it was only a week off April.

 

Seriously the sun in the UK is not strong in March we're too far north. The sun only starts to get strong in mid-late April in this country give or take how far north or south you live.

Edited December 31, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Tony27]

Well in my location, snow in March is way more likely than in Dec, April more likely than Dec, Feb the most likely month for snow

 

Early Jan tends to be autumnal, 2002 an exception, anyone know what month the UK has its average pressure at its lowest? and westerlies at their highest frequency? has to be Dec and Jan

yes i often hear that saying but we would rather it snow in jan than in march or april, if snow was so frequent in march and april don't you think we would all be looking at charts hoping for snow in march and april, rather than in jan,

many times we get  HLB in march or april but the surface conditions are just to warm then to get any snow, yes dec and early jan is most known for westerlies, but if we do get snow in jan it lasts longer than in would in march or april

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Agree fully Tony, would love snow in Dec and early Jan, but it dosent happen often, jetstream etc to strong, no blocking, Easterlies in Feb to April virtually guaranteed at some point, as is cold, and probably northerlies

 

only trouble with March and April is sea can be too cold to generate convective snow, but on the coast, I would have thought more chance

[Hotspur62]

The Great Lakes and places like Montreal and Ottawa are the places to have been since early December.They have hogged all the cold with a seriousily cold spell due with lows in minus 30s over next week. General pattern doesn't look like changing much with virtually all Europe mild to very mild in some cases(e.g Scandanavia).Really hoping things change soon as getting bored looking everyday on MOD hoping for that elusive cold spell to be in sight but just seeing relentless lows coming across the Atlantic soaking us in UK every other day!!.Big hope for UK and Europe is potential Strat Warming but I see that this doesn't look as good as a day or two ago for late January. Hope I'm wrong but starting to get bad feeling this winter will not be a good one 

for coldies!!.On the bright side we are due a cold Feb so maybe this will be the month when winter finally arrives in the UK. Happy New Year

[Tony27]

Not sure why people are dissing Feb to April for snow when statistically it's more likely to fall in February (most especially) and March than December, also this March a lot of places got absolutely hammered with feet upon feet of drifts - yet it was only a week off April.

 

Seriously the sun in the UK is not strong in March we're too far north. The sun only starts to get strong in mid-late April in this country give or take how far north or south you live.

trust me if the south gets 2 inches of snow in late feb or march it would be gone by the afternoon or the next day,  hoping for a  feb 1947 or -16 uppers like last march is just plain silly and deluded, we need to expect the bog standard snow we usually get, the day i see feet upon feet of drifts in march i will run out in it naked and give you a 1,000 pounds, i didn't get a single flake last march btw but its not all about my backyard of course

[I remember Atlantic 252]

amazed with that last bit Tony? not a flake last march, I saw loads, mainly from 22nd to 24th, still fully intact snowmen on 2 April

[Tony27]

Agree fully Tony, would love snow in Dec and early Jan, but it dosent happen often, jetstream etc to strong, no blocking, Easterlies in Feb to April virtually guaranteed at some point, as is cold, and probably northerlies

 

only trouble with March and April is sea can be too cold to generate convective snow, but on the coast, I would have thought more chance

as well as the days been longer than the nights, and the sun being too strong in mar and apr,

 

so everyone on here should go away now and come back at look at the models in march and april right? cos that's when snow is more likely according to you and that's when we are likely to see a pasting of snow that lasts on the ground for a week

 

when is spring then? from may till july, perhaps we might see the daffs and tulips come out in may and june as march and april will just be too cold and snowy, i suppose summer starts in august so no point looking for hot weather in june cos it will only be spring, we best off looking for hot weather in sept and oct when it will be summer

 

so forget about ice days in jan, april is the time for that eh

Edited December 31, 2013 by Tony27

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I am hoping to see snow before then! looking at models it wont be before 20th Jan, I am hopeful of snow as early as 30th Jan,

 

certainly hoping to see snow on 25th Feb! then Iremember25/2

Edited December 31, 2013 by IrememberAtlantic252

[stainesbloke]

Who wants snow in April in the south? Seriously? About as much use and as desirable as a chocolate teapot. Agree with Tony, snow is rare in the south after Feb and even rarer that it hangs around for any length of time (like more than 20 seconds)...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS way more likely right here, ECMWF way off I feel in FI, expect it to trend towards GFS on the 12Z today

[snowblizzard]

I had a feeling that this winter would be different to the last few years! The warm, dry and quite sunny pattern through much of the summer was the biggest clue! The previous few summers were much more unsettled, cool with lots of rain and they were followed by winters with much more in the way of HLB and frequent outbreaks of cold with significant snowfalls. 2013/2014 was almost certain to be different.

So, the Atlantic conveyor continues relentlessly with more flooding likely!

Edited January 1, 2014 by snowblizzard

[stainesbloke]

I had a feeling that this winter would be different to the last few years! The warm, dry and quite sunny pattern through much of the summer was the biggest clue! The previous few summers were much more unsettled, cool with lots of rain and they were followed by winters with much more in the way of HLB and frequent outbreaks of cold with significant snowfalls. 2013/2014 was almost certain to be different.So, the Atlantic conveyor continues relentlessly with more flooding likely!

Agree, so far this winter has a very 90s-00s feel to it, which is no bad thing if we get a long hot summer! Though I do feel that late Jan and Feb could be much colder.

[phil nw.]

Yes we know periods of Atlantic wind and rain are typical for the UK in Winter but a break in this relentless rain would be welcome by many now i feel.

No sign of an early change to snow or cold though-i would even settle for high over us for a few days just to dry things out a bit.

It seems we have a wait for anything different.

[stodge]

First, Happy New Year to all model watchers.

 

Some thoughts: - first, many many winters have been "late starters" and it's far from unusual for late January and February to be significantly colder than the period before. Indeed, the converse is true - a cold pre-Christmas often means a mild January and February. I despair at those who think we should have storm-force easterlies and -20 uppers on every chart and write off weeks at a time on the basis of a couple of poor Operational runs.

 

Now, I'm NOT saying that we 're going to get something unexpected - we know so much more than we did in 1962-63 let alone 1947. It's entirely possible that had we known then what we know now we'd have seen the cold spell coming 5-6 days in advance. For example, we now know and can predict SSW events in a way we couldn't even a few years ago.

 

I've never thought we could get a cold outbreak until late January and into February. IF the strat conditions are favourable, we may get something interesting but I live in lowland London - snow for me is marginal and transitory at best. The fall of December 2010 was mostly gone in a week - most snow generally doesn't last that long in the urban heat island. I'd be much more intersted in cold, frosty and foggy conditions which could provide some serious ice-days for my part of the world. 

 

Unfortunately, too nany people look at charts in isolation and don't even understand those to be honest.

 

There is a "Technical" part to the MoD and I do wonder if the Martins of this world would be better off putting detailed analysis in there. An alternative would be to split comment on high-res and low-res output. Have one thread to discuss output from T+0 to T+144 - this is the high-res modelling which while liable to significant change itself is more generally reliable and verifiable.  The Low-res thread could cover all later output and be open to those looking for trends and longer-term ideas for output.

 

At the present, the MoD splits into three - a) those who want a particular type of weather and look for charts to back it up b) those who deal only in high-res output, are quite dismissive of the low-res and concentrate on short -term detailed forecasting directly based on the output and c) those who study high-res output to pick out trends in an attempt to offer longer-view forecasts. The prize is spotting the trend first and watching it move into low-res and verify with the sense that they spotted it first.

 

To try and create some objective model-watching utopia where only skilled forecasters comment calmly on high-res output would be to create a sterile and ultimately boring forum. I can read charts as well as the next person and I'm much more interested in the output that isn't publicly available rather than all the output and Ensemble data which we can all read and analyse. I'd rather have a thread with strat charts, long-range forecasting and trend-spotting rather than either pointless hopecasting or sterile professional analysis.

 

I welcome the pros such as Ian F who come on here and offer some insight from professional bodies though sometimes they miss the point that it's as much about spotting the trend than simply looking at the Ensembles which mask the outlier which becomes the trend. Looking at the Ensembles is like backing the favourite in a horse race - you'll probably win but backing the outsider and watching it win the race is more profitable and perhaps more fun.

[Gustywind]

Really getting fed up now with this miserable, cold, wet weather. Can't stand the thought of another month of this dreadful weather, at least with cold snowy winters you get plenty of nice sunshine in between, this zonality is relentless and very depressing!

Has there ever been a winter where all 3 winter months were virtually 100% zonality dominated as per current setup? I'm hoping there hasn't been as at least that'll give me some hope of a change before too long. Definately moving abroad in later life to a more continental style climate.

[Froze were the Days]

Have to agree this weather is dreadful! - give me colder conditions any time, at least it's drier apart from when it's snowing, if this is how it's going to be then roll-on March and then we'll probably get the wintry stuff!

[Ravendane]

Where did the tabloids get the idea this was going to be a long, cold and snowy winter?  All that talk of a hundred days of lying snow and the snowiest winter since 1847....could they be more wrong!  So depressed by all this endless, miserable and damaging wind and rain...seems to have been non stop since that soggy autumn we had....    

[Froze were the Days]

Where did the tabloids get the idea this was going to be a long, cold and snowy winter?  All that talk of a hundred days of lying snow and the snowiest winter since 1847....could they be more wrong!  So depressed by all this endless, miserable and damaging wind and rain...seems to have been non stop since that soggy autumn we had....    

mmmmm...James Madden and Jonathan Powell and other poor amateur forecasters who don't deserve the time of day (sorry I've given them the time of day, no I haven't it's evening)

[Bobby]

What I'd give for even a light dusting, crystal clear blue skies and nil wind... hovering around -12C mind.

 

I agree, only a foot of powdery snow rather than a light dusting!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

watch the ECM be full on autumn look to it on todays 12Z, anyone expecting cold before late Jan, any winter in the south, is likely to be disappointed,

 

Still got hopes of snow from very end of Jan