Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[shedhead]

I think we are now closing in on a tipping point across the next 7-10 days, which will dictate the direction of travel for the remainder of what has so far been nothing more that extended Autumn.

 

Personally I do not see any kind of half way house here, we are either going back to an Atlantic pattern, albeit not as vigorous as December's, or the block is going to win out and give us a much colder and at times wintry Feb.

 

Up until recently and since late Oct in fact I've been firmly in the latter option camp, now I'm probably 70-30 in favour of the former, but imo we do not have long to wait now for this to be settled.

[Rose]

We are running out of winter though...sun getting warmer, stronger and longer days....spring snow is so short lived... this rain and mud has cost me dear too.....I lost two much loved horses through accidents in their field due to the heavy, deep and slippery mud...One was an exquisite Spanish mare that was my heart and soul..she broke her shoulder in a fall and my lovely old gypsy cob lady that I have loved for 27 years twisted her arthritic knee and was in so  much pain I had to let her go.  Hearbreaking ...all that rain brings only misery

How awful & so very sad to hear, as  fellow horse lover & animals in general, that must have been heartbreaking for you. This is the other side of the relentless rain, not just depressing for us snow lovers but lives have been lost, it isn't just lack of snow. I look out over a paddock & the horses have had to be moved as it's a bog. Surely it has to stop raining soon, it will be the lambs soon, they can cope with cold but not the wet.

[Bobby]

I nominate this as the official theme for the Beast from the East hunt

 

 

Would love it but not buying it yet.

[The PIT]

Shouldn't it be rump thread nothing to ramp about.

[MP-R]

That Azores high could really do with taking a hike. We'd be quids in snow-wise next week otherwise.

[SnowObsessor90]

From hemispheric perspective the last few frames of ECM are probably best we've seen all winter, too bad that it's now gotten itself a reputation for being more of a fantasy model.

Edited January 16, 2014 by SnowObsessor90

[Downpour]

Right. Just checking in after taking my boy out to the pub because the gas board are fixing a leak outside my house. Obviously I'm happy for the mild conditions at the moment :-/

But that won't last. Decent day. Let's hope the pub run does the business later.

[UV-RAY]

I still can't get enthused by the latest ECM output, it's like deja vu  in the MOD thread. Anyway until the GFS comes on board then I'll continue to live up to my username.

[conor123]

GFS still looks absolutely rubbish for next week to these eyes, any cold as per usual no nearer than ever...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

GFS sadly more realistic here, still only mid Jan, still a westerly dominated time of year, ECM a bit off again on 12Z, ECM maybe right eventually but not for another 3 weeks at least, when westerlies normally run out of steam

[conor123]

Yup 18z much more realistic unfortunately, seems to be the same old rubbish everyday at the minute, upgrade's through the morning/afternoon, 'signs' of colder weather at 168+ hrs talk through the evening and then evening/overnight downgrade's back to reality with the colder chart's the next day again no nearer (aka 168hrs plus).

[Peter H]

Yup 18z much more realistic unfortunately, seems to be the same old rubbish everyday at the minute, upgrade's through the morning/afternoon, 'signs' of colder weather at 168+ hrs talk through the evening and then evening/overnight downgrade's back to reality with the colder chart's the next day again no nearer (aka 168hrs plus).

 

Yep, noticed that myself from last night.They even have the dreaded Bartlet high reasserting itself towards the end of the period on this evenings charts 

 

 

[lassie23]

I  can't believe everyone keeps getting sucked in by the ECM and its fantasy winter wonderland charts. It has been a bit rubbish this winter, the form horse is the GFS, if that continuously shows cold and snow, then we are onto something, untill then the pesky jet rules.

[snowbob]

I  can't believe everyone keeps getting sucked in by the ECM and its fantasy winter wonderland charts. It has been a bit rubbish this winter, the form horse is the GFS, if that continuously shows cold and snow, then we are onto something, untill then the pesky jet rules.

is it the models being rubbish though or the weather lol

[bluearmy]

I  can't believe everyone keeps getting sucked in by the ECM and its fantasy winter wonderland charts. It has been a bit rubbish this winter, the form horse is the GFS, if that continuously shows cold and snow, then we are onto something, untill then the pesky jet rules.

Which ecm charts show widespread snow on the 12z run ??

The gfs is almost redundant. It has less than three months left. If it were worthwhile, it wouldnt be replaced - note, pretty well replaced, not upgraded. infact, sylvain, where is the parallel ???

[Chris K]

I  can't believe everyone keeps getting sucked in by the ECM and its fantasy winter wonderland charts. It has been a bit rubbish this winter, the form horse is the GFS, if that continuously shows cold and snow, then we are onto something, untill then the pesky jet rules.

Well if you dont want to explore the wealth of solutions the models show then yes in that case it is always best to focus up to the point where all the models start disagreeing with each other.

I just think the thread will be a boring place if people can't at least express excitement, interest and debate certain runs, even if it is likely/unlikely to verify.

After all we've only had rain and wind to talk about for most of the winter so far!!

[Troubleatmill]

I  can't believe everyone keeps getting sucked in by the ECM and its fantasy winter wonderland charts. It has been a bit rubbish this winter, the form horse is the GFS, if that continuously shows cold and snow, then we are onto something, untill then the pesky jet rules.

Sorry Lassie but GFS is only on top minimal occasions, only reason we pay much attention to it is the ammount of information it throws out publicly, thats backed up by stats. Not saying ECM is right but far more reliable, hense pub run and the working lunch 06z run

[bryan629]

I  can't believe everyone keeps getting sucked in by the ECM and its fantasy winter wonderland charts. It has been a bit rubbish this winter, the form horse is the GFS, if that continuously shows cold and snow, then we are onto something, untill then the pesky jet rules.

Sorry, but as it stands there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the forecast... inter model runs show this , wheather or not which preferred model output..

a good reason for this is Shannon entropy...theres a battle going on between east and west that the models are trying to get a grip on this .

best bet is to look in the reliable for what is nailed on  ie around t 72 anything after look for a trend....there you will see just how much uncertainty there is .

We are coming to the time of year when the atlantic should slow down...wheather it does or not remains to be seen, is the high to our NE being underrated also.

a very complicated pattern we have been in and still are..so I don't think calling one model the form horse is fair comment .

[clangers23]

I  can't believe everyone keeps getting sucked in by the ECM and its fantasy winter wonderland charts. It has been a bit rubbish this winter, the form horse is the GFS, if that continuously shows cold and snow, then we are onto something, untill then the pesky jet rules.

 

As someone who is a complete novice and is trying to fathom the models, the ECM does seem to be very FI, is this always the case? Should we place greater emphasis on different models at different times of year?

 

I know that we're barely half way through winter but given that there appears to be little raise our hopes through the remainder of Jan this winter is beginning to look like a real disappointment. Moan over!

[Tony27]

GFS sadly more realistic here, still only mid Jan, still a westerly dominated time of year, ECM a bit off again on 12Z, ECM maybe right eventually but not for another 3 weeks at least, when westerlies normally run out of steam

your posts are becoming quite predictable now, we can get snow in december and january and rampant mild zonal in feb, the weather doesn't always follow the script, we had easterlies last june when it's supposed to be a westerly month

Edited January 16, 2014 by Tony27

[lassie23]

Well if you dont want to explore the wealth of solutions the models show then yes in that case it is always best to focus up to the point where all the models start disagreeing with each other.I just think the thread will be a boring place if people can't at least express excitement, interest and debate certain runs, even if it is likely/unlikely to verify.After all we've only had rain and wind to talk about for most of the winter so far!!

I agree it would be boring on this forum, the only thing is that people are genuinely dissappointed when the snow doesn't arrive. I love the suff and get very peed off when easterlies shown on the ECM keep vanishing. The GFS has been good this winter though.

[Polar Continental]

Installing winter 2014................................................error loading winter 2014... please try again later................

 

My advice, keep an eye on the JMA, IMO has been quite consistent so far this winter, ie less prone to error than the other models. 

[conor123]

Yep, noticed that myself from last night.They even have the dreaded Bartlet high reasserting itself towards the end of the period on this evenings charts 

 

 

Yup i'm sticking to my prediction of the Azores high blasting up from the South West come late next week/ next weekend in some form , once that's out the way can finally start realistically looking for an attempt at winter for the end of the month/ Early February thank goodness! 

Edited January 17, 2014 by conor123

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Yep, noticed that myself from last night.They even have the dreaded Bartlet high reasserting itself towards the end of the period on this evenings charts 

 

 

Given the amount of flooding in the south, south west and south east, that would actually be very welcome!

[The PIT]

Looks like an Atlantic power up again. Winter cancelled until 2014/15