Possible severe Atlantic storm Wednesday 18th December 2013 onwards

[alexisj9]

Here comes the start of the conveyor:

 

ir4-l.jpg

 

wv-l.jpg

 

That looks like it's picking one of the more southerly routes, so northern Ireland/W Scotland will defo not miss the storm force winds.

[Cloud 10]

Latest fax chart has the LP down to 948 mb at midnight tonight.

 

 

 

Observations for 9am..

 

 

 

LP very well defined on satellite image.

 

 

 

Very active front crossing the whole country this evening as well,which is something

we will be seeing a lot of over the next couple of weeks.

 

Edited December 18, 2013 by Cloud 10

[Coast]

New thread here as well now, specifically for the two days of Christmas and just beyond: 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78796-possible-severe-atlantic-storm-christmas-day-and-boxing-day/

[Coast]

Meteoalarm warnings for today and tomorrow:

 

 

valid from 18.12.2013 22:00 CET Until 19.12.2013 13:00 CET

 

Wind  Awareness Level: Yellow 

 

Severe gale force winds are likely to affect parts of Northern Ireland, central western and northern Scotland on Wednesday night and early on Thursday; gusts may exceed 80 mph locally. The wind will lead to large waves with some coastal over-topping possible. In addition, persistent heavy rain will quickly clear from Scotland leaving squally wintry showers.

 

 

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/en_UK/0/0/UK-United_Kingdom.html

[knightrider]

Im still waiting for a day similar to October 27th 2002, when winds substained 47mph here, and gusts reached beyond 65mph.

Yes I remember that storm well, we had similar mean speeds with gusts of 70-80mph although I'm not sure if it effected you as much but the October 2000 storm which happened during the night was marginally stronger here in Essex I vividly remember my bedroom windows shaking from the force of the gusts and I was scared they where going to come through, trees looked like they where about to snap in half and noise was deafening accentuated by the torrential rain which was the capitalist for the severe flooding that the country experienced throughout the rest of that autumn. During the storm's peak we had 50mph sustained with gusts nudging 90mph!

[BurntFishTrousers]

Soon a monster, if not already!

 

[Coast]

Current surface wind:

 

 

Current rain rate:

 

 

Infra red:

 

[BurntFishTrousers]

Shannon, issued on Wednesday 18 December 2013 at 0359 UTC
 Southerly severe gale force 9 now decreased gale force 8, veering westerly and increasing hurricane force 12 soon

Rockall, issued on Wednesday 18 December 2013 at 0359 UTC
 Southerly storm force 10 now decreased severe gale force 9 veering westerly and increasing hurricane force 12 soon

Malin, issued on Wednesday 18 December 2013 at 0359 UTC
 Southerly storm force 10 now decreased severe gale force 9, veering northwesterly and increasing hurricane force 12 later

Hebrides, issued on Wednesday 18 December 2013 at 0359 UTC
 Southerly storm force 10 now decreased severe gale force 9, veering northwesterly and increasing hurricane force 12 later

[Matty M]

M6 Buoy is already @ 972hPa and has dropped an incredible 12.3hPa in just 3 hours

[knightrider]

 

Shannon, issued on Wednesday 18 December 2013 at 0359 UTC  Southerly severe gale force 9 now decreased gale force 8, veering westerly and increasing hurricane force 12 soon

Rockall, issued on Wednesday 18 December 2013 at 0359 UTC  Southerly storm force 10 now decreased severe gale force 9 veering westerly and increasing hurricane force 12 soon

Malin, issued on Wednesday 18 December 2013 at 0359 UTC  Southerly storm force 10 now decreased severe gale force 9, veering northwesterly and increasing hurricane force 12 later

Hebrides, issued on Wednesday 18 December 2013 at 0359 UTC  Southerly storm force 10 now decreased severe gale force 9, veering northwesterly and increasing hurricane force 12 later

 

Not very often you get so many hurricane force warnings in the same shipping forecast around our shores!

[Boro Snow]

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&HH=27&BASE=201312180000&WMO=&ZOOM=0

 

Useful tool for you guys the EURO4 Model,, liam dutton and matt hugo are raving about it because its free

Edited December 18, 2013 by Boro Snow

[mardatha]

Skylight was just replaced on saturday after being sucked out...looks like it's set to go again lol

[Cloud 10]

Amber warning's now out from the Met-office.

 

Met Office: UK: severe weather warnings

[knightrider]

Looks like the storm is going to peak between 9pm and midnight here in Essex, netweather going for mean speeds approaching 30mph with gusts of over 50mph if that's the case it'll be quite similar in intensity to the peak of St'Jude, I'm still a little bit stumped as to why the Met Office don't seem too concerned about issuing a definitive warning for London and the South-East covering the Home Counties.

[Sussex Jules]

Knightrider it is no way similar to St Jude's storm that was far worse. It certainly doesn't seem to hit the South East with the same intensity compared to say the South West. I am sure the Met Office are monitoring the situation but trees not being in full leaf will lessen any impact high winds have on this area.

I do think some people view Met Office warnings as some sort of honour badge and fail to understand the matrix that defines the various warnings.

[SteveCoops]

Great, just as I stagger my way home from work's Christmas party then!

[Coast]

Looks like the storm is going to peak between 9pm and midnight here in Essex, netweather going for mean speeds approaching 30mph with gusts of over 50mph if that's the case it'll be quite similar in intensity to the peak of St'Jude, I'm still a little bit stumped as to why the Met Office don't seem too concerned about issuing a definitive warning for London and the South-East covering the Home Counties.

 

They do have one for lower down (geographically) as I think they are in for stronger gusts:

 

Yellow warning of Wind

 

Issued at: 

1116 on Wed 18 Dec 2013

 

Valid from: 

1500 on Wed 18 Dec 2013

 

Valid to: 

2200 on Wed 18 Dec 2013

 

Heavy rain and gales will affect south and west Wales, southwest England and some southern coastal counties of England on Wednesday evening. Gusts will reach 50 to 60 mph quite widely, with 70 mph gusts possible in exposed coastal areas. Heavy rain may also cause some localised flooding across parts of Wales and southwest England. The rain will clear and strongest winds will ease from the west.

 

The public should be aware of the potential for minor disruption. A deep area of low pressure will pass close to northwest Scotland during Wednesday evening, extending bands of heavy rain and gales across many areas during Wednesday afternoon and evening. Strongest gusts are likely in coastal areas exposed to the southerly winds. Heaviest rain will be on high ground in the west, with the potential for both river and surface water flooding.

 

A deep area of low pressure will pass close to northwest Scotland during Wednesday evening, extending bands of heavy rain and gales across many areas during Wednesday afternoon and evening. Strongest gusts are likely in coastal areas exposed to the southerly winds. Heaviest rain will be on high ground in the west, with the potential for both river and surface water flooding.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=se&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1387324800

Edited December 18, 2013 by Coast

[Matty M]

M6 buoy to 967.5hPa @ 11am

[knightrider]

Knightrider it is no way similar to St Jude's storm that was far worse. It certainly doesn't seem to hit the South East with the same intensity compared to say the South West. I am sure the Met Office are monitoring the situation but trees not being in full leaf will lessen any impact high winds have on this area.I do think some people view Met Office warnings as some sort of honour badge and fail to understand the matrix that defines the various warnings.

Well the highest gust recorded at my location during St'Jude was 53mph and netweather and MetO's models seem to suggest something similar to that this evening so I think my question deserves a more valid answer, this could quite easily be as bad as St'Jude for south eastern areas and potentially significantly worse elsewhere especially up in the north-west and maybe even south-west!

[Cheshire Freeze]

There's  one thing about it, December will probably go down as a stormy month.....however here there has been nothing of note. Western Scotland is where most of the action has been thus far.

[Sussex Jules]

Well the highest gust recorded at my location during St'Jude was 53mph and netweather and MetO's models seem to suggest something similar to that this evening so I think my question deserves a more valid answer, this could quite easily be as bad as St'Jude for south eastern areas and potentially significantly worse elsewhere especially up in the north-west and maybe even south-west!

Yes and as you can see from what Coast posted further up the page the Met Office have warnings out for those areas if you read the matrix you will see why the Met Office are probably not considering the South East as worthy of any warning at this period in time. Don't forget they have far more detailed models and experience to produce their forecasts.

[knightrider]

Yes and as you can see from what Coast posted further up the page the Met Office have warnings out for those areas if you read the matrix you will see why the Met Office are probably not considering the South East as worthy of any warning at this period in time. Don't forget they have far more detailed models and experience to produce their forecasts.

It's weird because they state that warnings for London & SE have been issued but then it doesn't highlight it on the map the warnings only go as far east as Hampshire then stop!

[Sussex Jules]

It's weird because they state that warnings for London & SE have been issued but then it doesn't highlight it on the map the warnings only go as far east as Hampshire then stop!

It goes into West Sussex as well or parts of it. Hampshire and West Sussex fall under the Met Office defined area of South East England.

[knightrider]

It goes into West Sussex as well or parts of it. Hampshire and West Sussex fall under the Met Office defined area of South East England.

Lol I find that bizarre, I would classify those areas as central southern England and I think most people would agree with me there, east of Sussex maybe but not west of it and Hampshire certainly isn't.

[Nick B]

Hmm, obviously the Met Office need to be considering a serious warning to the South East specifically for anyone with a gazebo or marquee for this batch of warnings, because gusts up to 50mph could certainly cause their owners significant problems.  COBRA are probably meeting about this right now.

Edited December 18, 2013 by Nick B