Possible severe Atlantic storm Wednesday 18th December 2013 onwards

[Jo Farrow]

That's rather like what happened with St' Jude the really intense spell of winds only lasted about half an hour as the sting jet effect took over and the low pressure swung out into the north-sea yet they gave warnings about that storm days and days in advance, makes you wonder now whether they where that worthwhile, saying that people where caught out by it and killed as trees came down so in hindsight I guess the warnings where rightly issued, just seems strange how the MetO and the media seem a lot less concerned with this storm despite the predicted winds being arguably stronger!

Some part was still the uncertainty of the track, main update is always at 11am for MO warnings. Also the trees are not in leaf anymore as they were for 'St. Jude' storm, so that impact is lessened.  |Also it has been ruddy windy and stormy again and again these past weeks, anything not secured or already blown away by now..... perhaps we have settled into a stormy rut and it isn't big news it's just winter, even if the Atlantic is throwing some sturdy storms our way

[knightrider]

Some part was still the uncertainty of the track, main update is always at 11am for MO warnings. Also the trees are not in leaf anymore as they were for 'St. Jude' storm, so that impact is lessened.  |Also it has been ruddy windy and stormy again and again these past weeks, anything not secured or already blown away by now..... perhaps we have settled into a stormy rut and it isn't big news it's just winter, even if the Atlantic is throwing some sturdy storms our way

Sturdy is an understatement, next weeks storms look potentially devastating Merry Christmas lol   With regards to tomorrow's storm at least Peter Cockroft on the BBC London news evening bulletin a little earlier gave warning for the London area suggesting gusts of 40-50mph, it'll probably be 60+ nearer the south coast!

[BurntFishTrousers]

The 12z run shows a normal run-of-the-mill winter storm for tomorrow night. A few days ago it showed far worse. So, I'm not yet buying that the next 24-26hrs is going to be stormy. Of course, this may change in the next few runs but it's close enough now.

 

Meanwhile, Xmas time looks far more stormy .

Edited December 17, 2013 by BurntFishTrousers

[knightrider]

The 12z run shows a normal run-of-the-mill winter storm for tomorrow night. A few days ago it showed far worse. So, I'm not yet buying that the next 24-26hrs is going to be stormy. Of course, this may change in the next few runs but it's close enough now.

 

Meanwhile, Xmas time looks far more stormy .

What so you don't consider 50-60mph winds in the south and 80mph+ winds in the north to be a big storm?  This is Britain we are talking about, our weather is usually a lot tamer, if we was in Florida then yes it would just be an autumn breeze! 

[Mokidugway]

What so you don't consider 50-60mph winds in the south and 80mph+ winds in the north to be a big storm?  This is Britain we are talking about, our weather is usually a lot tamer, if we was in Florida then yes it would just be an autumn breeze! 

even in florida they take 80 mph winds seriously !!!...

[Jo Farrow]

Sturdy is an understatement, next weeks storms look potentially devastating Merry Christmas lol   With regards to tomorrow's storm at least Peter Cockroft on the BBC London news evening bulletin a little earlier gave warning for the London area suggesting gusts of 40-50mph, it'll probably be 60+ nearer the south coast!

I'll stick with the forecast for this week first, that's enough in itself, ...'sturdy'... didn't want to go all Daily Express,  hoho

[knightrider]

even in florida they take 80 mph winds seriously !!!...

Exactly, anything over 74mph sustained is a hurricane and some predictions suggest that on exposed Irish and NW Scottish coasts sustained winds of 70mph+ are possible meaning gusts may well be approaching 100mph

[R.P. McMurphy]

Exactly, anything over 74mph sustained is a hurricane and some predictions suggest that on exposed Irish and NW Scottish coasts sustained winds of 70mph+ are possible meaning gusts may well be approaching 100mph

 

Yes, certainly a strong storm, but not the worst we have seen, the past day it's been downgraded and downgraded, and the models still can't agree on the location of the low's final position.

 

Although I will point out, it's Hurricane Force, not an actual Hurricane.

[Matty M]

Yes, certainly a strong storm, but not the worst we have seen, the past day it's been downgraded and downgraded, and the models still can't agree on the location of the low's final position.

 

Although I will point out, it's Hurricane Force, not an actual Hurricane.

Youve focussed too much on the GFS only that model has downgraded the storm, of course it could be correct but i would back a ECMWF, NAE combo.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Youve focussed too much on the GFS only that model has downgraded the storm, of course it could be correct but i would back a ECMWF, NAE combo.

 

Possibly, but with so much uncertainty on the positioning anything can happen...  We will see.. Either way, batten down the hatches NI and NW Scotty.

[Mokidugway]

Upgrades downgrades upgrades it doesn't matter someone somewhere in uk is going to get some sturdy no sorry serious weather !!..

[Matty M]

Quite a large difference here.

 

Mean ECMWF versus GFS OP

 

Mean ECMWF significantly (at this range) further south than GFS.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2013 by Matty M

[rich1974]

Quite a large difference here.

 

Mean ECMWF versus GFS OP

 

Mean ECMWF significantly (at this range) further south than GFS.

 

 

So does this mean it'll be worse down the south now....oh I'm so lost with all these charts.

[Matty M]

So does this mean it'll be worse down the south now....oh I'm so lost with all these charts.

In short, yes but not too far south, just more chance of a direct hit on parts of Ireland and Scotland.

 

GFS had the strongest winds largely missing these areas.

[wimblettben]

Personally if I had to come up with a dangerous wind criteria (possible serious injury or death) it would begin at 55mph as large branches or trees come down from a wind like that.

 

A be aware advisory(Possible minor injury) for anything above 40mph as I have seen 45mph gusts to break large twigs or small branches off of trees when measuring with my handheld anemometer.

 

I don't think our house will get the full amount of the wind tomorrow if its coming from a southerly direction as the trees block it off, I suspect it will probably read maxes between 35-40mph when there could be 50mph out in the farmers field.

[Bobby]

Looks nasty still on the 12z ECM especially N. Ireland and NW Scotland, a closer look...

 

 

[ZONE 51]

The 12z run shows a normal run-of-the-mill winter storm for tomorrow night. A few days ago it showed far worse. So, I'm not yet buying that the next 24-26hrs is going to be stormy. Of course, this may change in the next few runs but it's close enough now.

 

Meanwhile, Xmas time looks far more stormy .

Not going to feel that way for some.. especially in the south where the 50 - 70MPH gusts are likely to be feeling severe, not used to much higher than 50mph round these areas you know! Still a significant and potentially damaging storm this, torrential rain fall and the severe gales(storm force north) combined, and high seas battering shore lines quite a concern too.

[rich1974]

That St Judes storm we had last month or when ever had what they call a sting jet, I remember the time it must have passed my home, it only lasted 20 minutes but it was really bad, what wind speeds would they have been as the sting jet past over? That might give me a better understanding of how bad things might get.

[ZONE 51]

This was today in Epsom Surrey.....

http://www.epsomguardian.co.uk/news/10882857.Huge_tree_crashes_down_and_blocks_half_of_road_in_Epsom/?ref=rss

 

 

A tree crashed down and blocked half of a road in Epsom leading to congestion this afternoon.

Edited December 17, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Mokidugway]

That St Judes storm we had last month or when ever had what they call a sting jet, I remember the time it must have passed my home, it only lasted 20 minutes but it was really bad, what wind speeds would they have been as the sting jet past over? That might give me a better understanding of how bad things might get.

did a sting jet form over the uk ? I thought it formed over denmark or Germany where the storm peaked !..

[Sussex Jules]

did a sting jet form over the uk ? I thought it formed over denmark or Germany where the storm peaked !..[/

There were reports of 80 mph gusts over Essex which they thought was possibly a sting jet.

[rich1974]

did a sting jet form over the uk ? I thought it formed over denmark or Germany where the storm peaked !..

Look I'm no expert mate so sorry for sounding stupid.

did a sting jet form over the uk ? I thought it formed over denmark or Germany where the storm peaked !..[/

There were reports of 80 mph gusts over Essex which they thought was possibly a sting jet.

Thanks for the reply mate.

[knightrider]

That St Judes storm we had last month or when ever had what they call a sting jet, I remember the time it must have passed my home, it only lasted 20 minutes but it was really bad, what wind speeds would they have been as the sting jet past over? That might give me a better understanding of how bad things might get.

Your not stupid lol, yes there was a sting jet as St'Jude moved out into the north-sea which is what caused that powerful squally spell around 6:30 to 7am

 

did a sting jet form over the uk ? I thought it formed over denmark or Germany where the storm peaked !..[/

There were reports of 80 mph gusts over Essex which they thought was possibly a sting jet.

Gusts near Essex and Kent coasts might have been in the region of 80mph but inland they never got much above 70mph, generally speaking they where more like 55-60mph. My local weather stations (there's 2 in my estate) recorded 53 and 49mph but even that was still enough to bring down quite a number of trees down in my local village mostly small trees mind.

[ZONE 51]

After reading back just got to put this...

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/sturdy?s=t

 

Any more disagreements? 

[Mokidugway]

Look I'm no expert mate so sorry for sounding stupid.Thanks for the reply mate.

now ones saying that only going by reports, sorry if I offended ..