Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Summer Sun]

Sorry but where did you get the information about the ECM 32 , are you a subscriber ?

 

You can find info on Twitter from the EC 32 Ian Fergusson and Matt Hugo tend to tweet about it, if you go back a page Ian posted its latest update earlier

Edited December 27, 2013 by Summer Sun

[legritter]

ECM 32 holding firm with the Westerly pattern right through to the end of January, to go along with the Susan Powell comments on boxing day that there are no signs of anything particularly cold for the next month. I also noticed that there were some eye candy ensemble members wheeled out last night, always a bad sign if its cold your looking for.

This mornings ECM is a horror show for cold and I thought that was what we were hoping the gfs would be trending too....

In a nutshell, you can have all the HLB you like, but until the Azores high moves away it ain't gonna do much good.

i,ll take the possibility of the ecm and broad feeling from all weather related channels out to max of two weeks thats 14 days into the future a long long time in forecasting even with todays massive computers and Sat information .and with the possibility of a russian block setting up the weather two weeks from now could be totally different let alone  one whole Month .All to play for gang ,dont think otherwise unless you have a magic crystall Ball but if you do please share it with our vibrant friendly best weather Forum in the world .

[lassie23]

It's my very first post on a weather forum anywhere in the world. Everyone with their superior knowledge on here makes me feel so dumb and I haven't had the guts to post before. So forgive me if I ask a stupid question, like whatever happened to the new mini ice age and the slowing of the jet stream? This winter has been an atlantic onslaught and the trees in my garden are starting to bud. Which of the models predicted this MILD stormy early winter and which one has been performing best with the modelling of these storms? We really could do with some cold, I saw a wasp in my cat's dinner bowl and it's December.

[SMU]

Welcome lassie-

 

With the recent winters being jam packed with cold spells perhaps we have forgotton this isn't the norm-

 

This December just passed has been exceptionally mild ( +2c) above average-

Never fear though, there is rarely any winters that pass without cold-  so sit tight & your Xmas wishes will come true

 

 

S

[nick sussex]

Looking at all of todays model outputs I think we're looking at the most likely scenario of low pressure running through the UK into Europe on a more nw/se jet axis shown in map 1 below:

 

 

The PV is just too strong and we never see a clearance of energy away from Greenland, so I think PM air and somewhat colder.

 

Although high pressure does stay on the scene to the ne it really isn't able to move sufficiently sw, I would add another scenario so even with a  stalemate  there is a chance of some snow as troughing disrupts near the UK, at the moment the boundary looks to be further east but its not impossible to see this brought further west:

 

The set up shown below does need too have a more amplified Azores high to help increase the sharpness of the downstream low but I think this option is still possible because of the uncertainties inherent in this type of set up:

 

 

Generally with the high to the ne, PV to the nw and an upstream signal for a more amplified pattern in the eastern USA its risky to completely dismiss more colder options.

 

Trough disruption is a notoriously difficult thing for the models to judge and so I'm keeping option 2 on the table.

 

We'll see over the next few runs whether we see any retrogression in the pattern and also whether we see some better trough disruption near the UK.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[draztik]

I feel bad for the newbies coming in here, looking for direction. They keep seeing comments like "changes afoot... Cold incoming" etc etc, when its clear to see the Atlantic is driving our weather , and is showing little sign of waning in the medium term. Just look at what the models are suggesting for Eastern Canada, another intense outbreak of very cold air, which will only aid to strengthen an already fired up jet.

We don't have crystal balls, for sure. We only have the models. The models, since early Dec show the Atlantic being the driver. And it wants to remain so in January.

[nick sussex]

I feel bad for the newbies coming in here, looking for direction. They keep seeing comments like "changes afoot... Cold incoming" etc etc, when its clear to see the Atlantic is driving our weather , and is showing little sign of waning in the medium term. Just look at what the models are suggesting for Eastern Canada, another intense outbreak of very cold air, which will only aid to strengthen an already fired up jet.

We don't have crystal balls, for sure. We only have the models. The models, since early Dec show the Atlantic being the driver. And it wants to remain so in January.

Draztik the NH set up is different going forward than what it has been during December, you simply can't compare the two because high pressure to the ne will add forcing on the pattern to direct energy more into Europe.

 

There is also a misconception with the PV, it doesn't matter if it looks nasty, its where the energy coming off it is directed that will determine the weather for the UK, a positive PNA pattern in the USA often leads to bitter cold in the eastern USA, but that set up also favours colder conditions in western Europe.

 

Its a fine balancing act going forward because of high pressure to the ne battling against the energy coming off the PV, at the moment you'd favour the stalemate type scenario with more PM air but with the proviso that things may change.

 

Just too early to say either way.

[MR EXTREMES]

I'd hold fire on this colder setup its looking to slowly recede to a more aaverage set up.

I think our best chance might well be February but even that month I'm skeptical about.

The vortex looks like winning this winter hands down ad the dominance of the euro and azores high I think it's close but a fail.

[jvenge]

Models seem to be suggesting a slightly less mild version of what we have had this week. Storms, just not quite as mild. Maybe snow for some. Not gonna try past day 8 or so though.

Edited December 27, 2013 by jvenge

[lassie23]

Thanks for the welcome Steve! So I take it that as long as bitter air is spilling out of Eastern Canada into the Atlantic, then that fuels an endless supply of storms for the UK. That is a pretty depressing scenario and so is a winter with no snow, it's been a while since that happened. Has there ever been a winter with all atlantic driven weather before? Surely it can't go on for another 3 months........can it?

[bluearmy]

Good posts nick but not sure all will listen to you. Even the gem anomolys now digging into euope though they don't have the anomoly well to our ne to be as strong as gefs or ecm. Hence the more ne tilt on the mean chart at T288 posted earlier by drastik.

[jvenge]

Thanks for the welcome Steve! So I take it that as long as bitter air is spilling out of Eastern Canada into the Atlantic, then that fuels an endless supply of storms for the UK. That is a pretty depressing scenario and so is a winter with no snow, it's been a while since that happened. Has there ever been a winter with all atlantic driven weather before? Surely it can't go on for another 3 months........can it?

 

Not likely to! First half of December was technically different to the second part. First part of Jan currently looking like a slightly cooler version of this week (my opinion!). Anything can and will happen. I think everyone agree there isn't gonna be a deep freeze in the first half of Jan though.

[bobbydog]

now i know comparing previous winter charts has little bearing on any other winter,

 

however, for those writing off winter as a whole, take a look at these from 1990/1991

 

 

 

 

just a few of the common charts of the time. very strong vortex, HP over europe, or atlantic driven, stormy PM flow. pacific ridging making frequent appearances.

 

point is, there are no guarantees but we can't write off winter because of current conditions or model output.

 

 

 

because eventually, this happened.........

 

 

 

[shaky]

now i know comparing previous winter charts has little bearing on any other winter,

 

however, for those writing off winter as a whole, take a look at these from 1990/1991

 

 

 

 

just a few of the common charts of the time. very strong vortex, HP over europe, or atlantic driven, stormy PM flow. pacific ridging making frequent appearances.

 

point is, there are no guarantees but we can't write off winter because of current conditions or model output.

 

 

 

because eventually, this happened.........

 

and the vortex this year looks nowhere near as strong as the charts you've posted above!!

[lassie23]

Is it true that a SSW event is about to take place, can this change things? Do the models pick up on such an event? James Madden, Johnathan Powell and Mr Vogan must be praying for one.

[jvenge]

Is it true that a SSW event is about to take place, can this change things? Do the models pick up on such an event? James Madden, Johnathan Powell and Mr Vogan must be praying for one.

The quickest way to deep cold right now would be some form of blocking developing over Greenland. Others would likely disagree. That's not an impossibility. There is more potential in what is seen now than what was seen in December.

 

Don't listen to those joke forecasters :-) They took a stab in the dark, likely based around last winter, and got it massively wrong. The only people worse than them are the newspapers who give them somewhere to vent.

[legritter]

It's my very first post on a weather forum anywhere in the world. Everyone with their superior knowledge on here makes me feel so dumb and I haven't had the guts to post before. So forgive me if I ask a stupid question, like whatever happened to the new mini ice age and the slowing of the jet stream? This winter has been an atlantic onslaught and the trees in my garden are starting to bud. Which of the models predicted this MILD stormy early winter and which one has been performing best with the modelling of these storms? We really could do with some cold, I saw a wasp in my cat's dinner bowl and it's December.

Welcome Lassie 23 ,weather will somewhere  balance itself out ,but no guarantee when ,but we are in a very interesting Mode currently .Yes we had big bumble bees , bulbs coming up Moths galore ,but that could all go in a flash ,enjoy our forum and post we are all in it together to enjoy ,cheers .

[draztik]

Good posts nick but not sure all will listen to you. Even the gem anomolys now digging into euope though they don't have the anomoly well to our ne to be as strong as gefs or ecm. Hence the more ne tilt on the mean chart at T288 posted earlier by drastik.

have a lot of time for Nick S posts and views, and i agree the synoptics may be different as we head into Jan compared to early Dec. but as long as we have troughing to our nw, with little sign of a strong Scandi block forming (per ec32 update), then we will continue with the westerly signal for some time yet imo.

[Snowman.]

Unless I've been living under a rock I don't think anyone has actually called for a cold spell in the first half of Jan the most we hope for is a pattern change which COULD lead to something more wintry later down the line.

 

People need to stop jumping to conclusions on here or trying to slit someone's throat just because the want mild or cold weather.

 

Its actually becoming a burden to be on here sometimes with every other post contradicting the other with constant snipping at each other trying to gain the upper hand.

 

Please, if you're going to post about what happens a month can you please provide some evidence and back up your claim, there is another thread where you can discuss gut instinct but this is the model thread.

[TSNWK]

Unless I've been living under a rock I don't think anyone has actually called for a cold spell in the first half of Jan the most we hope for is a pattern change which COULD lead to something more wintry later down the line.People need to stop jumping to conclusions on here or trying to slit someone's throat just because the want mild or cold weather.Its actually becoming a burden to be on here sometimes with every other post contradicting the other with constant snipping at each other trying to gain the upper hand.Please, if you're going to post about what happens a month can you please provide some evidence and back up your claim, there is another thread where you can discuss gut instinct but this is the model thread.

The evidence could be the latest EC32, which continues its consistent westerly theme of the last month and which has verified in december, also the Susan Powell remarks on the bbc yesterday, finally the lack of anything consistent showing proper cold towards the back end of the operationals. Edited December 27, 2013 by TSNWK

[mcweather]

The evidence could be the latest EC32, which continues its consistent westerly theme of the last month and which has verified in december, also the Susan Powell remarks on the bbc yesterday, finally the lack of anything consistent showing proper cold towards the back end of the operationals.

 

I hope Fergie does not mind but his recent tweet is quite insightful:

 

  fergieweather

Tentative signs of some changes to broadscale story later through Jan as number of MOGREPS & EC members offer E'rly types with low to Biscay

27/12/2013 08:30

[Mucka]

I just wrote a huge detailed post which took me about an hour to construct and then just as I was ready to post I went to switch between tabs and accidentally closed the netweather one. I may actually never recover. It was more stressful than watching an England batting collapse.

 

The jist of it though was that we are already seeing a pattern change, not looking for one in 10 days time.

We now have Arctic high coming into play and a Scandinavian ridge, both distinctly lacking in Decembers output, though you may not have noticed if pattern change is only defined by conditions outside your window.

That is not being pedantic because these changes could make a difference to the weather we get as we progress through January.

 

There has been a lot of blather about what defines cold in England but I think all most people are interested in regarding cold is whether it is cold enough to snow.

Personally I have never said we would get the sort of pattern that can deliver deep cold in the first half of Jan, just that there would be better conditions around late Dec/early Jan for some blocking to develop but that blocking would likely be transient ridges and/or weak blocking to the North. Those were my thoughts 10 days ago and they are my thoughts now. I said there will be increased prospects of snow falling to low levels, particularly Northern England but that the weather will remain unsettled with any snowfall likely to be transient.

 

So what of the output, what should we be looking at and is January really a write off for deep cold?

 

Firstly the Arctic high, where is it heading and will it have any influence on the pattern?

 

 

Secondly the Scandinavian ridge, how strong will it be and can it stall the Atlantic onslaught?

 

 

How much trough disruption can we get and how amplified will the pattern be behind? Can we get an Atlantic ridge for example?

 

 

There are a lot of complex interactions quite early in the output which means divergence is increased and foreshortened in the output which is just another way of saying there is plenty to play for.

No deep cold likely in the first half of Jan but some decent prospects for some wintriness at times to low levels. At the same time we will either be seeing the Atlantic taking back over or blocking getting a foothold keeping the pattern more amplified as we head toward mid month with the prospect of the sort of deep cold some are only interested in, still a possibility in the second half of January.

 

Keep an eye on the short, mid term as even transient blocking can have consequences later and take all output in FI with a pinch of salt, cold or mild, until we have a better handle on how much the strong zonal flow will be disrupted through early January.

Thank you to Ian for his updates and nice to hear there is at least a weak signal that some blocking might establish itself later in January.

As for the EC32, I still say we can not expect them to show cold without a very strong signal for blocking taking hold and we don't have that. What we do have is a complex situation where opposing forces will do battle as height rises to the East and weak HLB attempt to squeeze and hold back the Atlantic onslaught. Longer range output will make assumptions that the longwave pattern isn't overly disturbed by weak and transient ridges but those assumptions may still turn out to be wrong.

Edited December 27, 2013 by Mucka

[Timmytour]

It's my very first post on a weather forum anywhere in the world. Everyone with their superior knowledge on here makes me feel so dumb and I haven't had the guts to post before. So forgive me if I ask a stupid question, like whatever happened to the new mini ice age and the slowing of the jet stream? This winter has been an atlantic onslaught and the trees in my garden are starting to bud. Which of the models predicted this MILD stormy early winter and which one has been performing best with the modelling of these storms? We really could do with some cold, I saw a wasp in my cat's dinner bowl and it's December.

 In the middle of a run of mild winters we had thisSnowfalls are now just a thing of the pastThen...as a number of cold winters kicked in we had...Expect more extreme winters thanks to global warming, say scientistsPeople sometimes like to shoehorn their facts in to fit their theories, rather than maybe let the facts help develop and refine theories.On here it's often the same as folks will see patterns in the models that will fit in with the way they want the weather to go.  And good luck to them i say. It's a forum where many different views should be welcomed.  But the longer you are on here the more you'll discover who the more rational and expert folks on here are.  And there are lots of them.Hope you enjoy coming on here and contributing.....but it's best never to take one model as gospel, and never to take one members prediction as gospel either.  There's a mine of information to be had on here but it's up to you to go down the mine and pick out the stuff you think is valuable.As an aside....I do believe the Gulf Stream was supposed to stall as a result of arctic ice melting into the Atlantic, but this year the ice cover has risen by 60%...so who knows, this may have reactivated the Gulf Stream which in turn may have effected the strength and position of the jet stream     

[draztik]

Unless I've been living under a rock I don't think anyone has actually called for a cold spell in the first half of Jan the most we hope for is a pattern change which COULD lead to something more wintry later down the line. People need to stop jumping to conclusions on here or trying to slit someone's throat just because the want mild or cold weather. Its actually becoming a burden to be on here sometimes with every other post contradicting the other with constant snipping at each other trying to gain the upper hand. Please, if you're going to post about what happens a month can you please provide some evidence and back up your claim, there is another thread where you can discuss gut instinct but this is the model thread.

Well you may have been under a rock, as you have missed ramps from Crewecold and the other usual suspects, forecasting a December 2010 cold spell into January. That aside, we are discussing the models. These are not assertions based on nothing. The ec32, gefs, gem ens et al., allow us to discuss weather into January. Of course not all members will agree all of the time, but no one to my knowledge has been offensive. We just don't agree on the apparent way forward - its healthy to discuss this. Ironically, You are the one bringing this thread off topic, go figure.

[Chris K]

I hope Fergie does not mind but his recent tweet is quite insightful:

 

  fergieweather

Tentative signs of some changes to broadscale story later through Jan as number of MOGREPS & EC members offer E'rly types with low to Biscay

27/12/2013 08:30

 

Indeed but it is also worth pointing out a reply to a question he was asked on the same 'tweet' about what he meant by cold:

 

Ian Fergussonâ€@fergieweather

@wingers_world colder phases BUT the Atlantic domination continues apace for the reliable forseeable. So, "unsettled with colder periods".

 

Not exactly bad though some places could possibly see snow if this was to verify? Especially further North and higher ground.

 

PS - do we have a "Twitter output discussion" thread?   

 

draztik, on 27 Dec 2013 - 14:05, said:

Well you may have been under a rock, as you have missed ramps from Crewecold and the other usual suspects, forecasting a December 2010 cold spell into January.

That aside, we are discussing the models. These are not assertions based on nothing. The ec32, gefs, gem ens et al., allow us to discuss weather into January. Of course not all members will agree all of the time, but no one to my knowledge has been offensive. We just don't agree on the apparent way forward - its healthy to discuss this.

Ironically, You are the one bringing this thread off topic, go figure.

 

I think I remember CC already admitting to being under the influence of a whole bottle of wine at the time he wrote that  

Edited December 27, 2013 by Chris K