Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Gaz1985]

Manchester 6z ens showing nothing notably cold, still looks zonal to me - a repeat of the last few weeks coming up I reckon. Rain wind rinse and repeat. Just average UK Winter weather so not surprising to me. 

 

[Ali1977]

Don't think we'll see anything good in the models going on the latest meto update!!!

[tight isobar]

12 z do look slighty better with troughing on a more (to a degree) southward push.but the worry is yet for any real cold on offer more/less nw euro as a whole.no real solid uppers to dig into.However it must be urged we are at at progress to where things for UK can change at the drop of the hat...

[TSNWK]

The GFS not upto much after a better start upstream, quite different though with the 06hrs run over the ne USA and further upstream with the next low moving east, I suspect we'll see a model divergence this evening.

Happy to bow to your far superior knowledge nick, would you just mind explaining why, I actually thought things were an improvement on the 12z and just looking at the 186 chart it looks like there is energy heading south to our west.. Edited December 27, 2013 by TSNWK

[bluearmy]

by the way, those of you who think there is all powerful trop vortex should take a look at the NH profile at the beginning of low res. there isnt, but whats left is in the wrong place for nw europe (for the time being)

[Tim Bland]

Could be snow in the north and high ground further south at day 10 on the GFS 12z

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=252&code=0&mode=0

Goes to a north easterly

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=288&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1

Edited December 27, 2013 by Tim Bland

[TSNWK]

Early part of low res actually looks rather interesting to me, 1045 surface high over Greenland, Azores high ridging towards Greenland and troughing heading south.

[tight isobar]

Tentative, but smelling the coffee. Something a change into early jan I'm sure. Be intresting watching from here on in.

[That ECM]

Comparing last nights 12z GFS and tonight's. There are similarities and I think you should compare runs from the same time period ie 12z against 12z. GFS becomes interesting in Fi again.

[stodge]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122712/gfs-0-204.png?12

 

Afternoon all

 

Not quite sure how that synoptically works to be honest.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122712/gfs-0-288.png?12?12

 

Well, it's nice to look at I suppose.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013122712/gfs-0-372.png?12

 

Again, nice to look at - I suppose the one message I'd take from the GFS 12Z operational is that the sign for a southward migration of LP centres and a more NW/SE alignment is still there as is the sense of things slowing in the Atlantic.

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO at T144

GFS at the same time

Huge differences to the North east

2 near identical runs from the UKMO today. 

Edited December 27, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mucka]

Far from backing away from the Scandi ridge the UKMO really goes for it, compared with GFS

 

 

EDIT

 

Ah CS you beat me to it. Yes rather large differences out to the mid range which underlines the futility of getting too hung up on FI charts at the moment.

 

GEM more in the UKMO camp and I expect ECM will probably follow

 

Edited December 27, 2013 by Mucka

[bluearmy]

yep - ukmo continues to make far more of the ridging and also the energy in the west atlantic. that would be an interesting meeting !  gfs 12z op is in line with extended ens to around T288 when it loses its marbles.

[TSNWK]

Well I have seen far worse runs than today's GFS 12z. Putting the pleasing on the eye low res to one side, the best part for me was the shift to the south west of that Azores high, as I posted earlier you can have all the HLB you like, but it ain't gonna be any good for us if the Azores high chooses not to play ball.

[Polar Maritime]

Not a bad run again from the 12z as it's the trends we are looking for.. Jet still sinking south a little and pulling Low Pressure with it bringing much cooler wintry weather to the UK, in line with METO update for temps something more seasonal, even below average during Jan. 

 

Edited December 27, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[TSNWK]

Far from backing away from the Scandi ridge the UKMO really goes for it, compared with GFS

 

 

EDIT

 

Ah CS you beat me to it. Yes rather large differences out to the mid range which underlines the futility of getting too hung up on FI charts at the moment.

 

GEM more in the UKMO camp and I expect ECM will probably follow

 

Hello for coldies what is the preference, today's 12z GFS or the UKMO 12z, and if the 12 UKMO would something please explain. Cheers.

[cooling climate]

The GFS 12z took longer to get there than I thought but it is definitely

the direction to look for cold to the UK. The UKMO is not very reliable

at the t144 range but it is certainly not backing down and has in fact

further endorsed the trend for heights to the ne in its outer range.

This is the direction I was hoping we would see in the earlier part of

the run from the GFS.

ECM certainly not without interest tonight.

Edited December 27, 2013 by cooling climate

[shedhead]

Looking at the 12 GFS panels it is encouraging to see the core of the PV finally lifting out of Baffin/Hudson Bay and higher pressure at least starting to hold firm at higher latitudes. That said the Atlantic train still looks rather a long way from slowly down significantly, let alone leaving the rails, but finally a 'trend' towards something 'colder' does appear to be slowly emerging. 

 

[Polar Maritime]

 but finally a 'trend' towards something 'colder' does appear to be slowly emerging. 

 

 

 

Steady on Shed...

[Purga]

Ay Caramba!

 

 

High pressure over Svalbard in the much more reliable tmeframe from UKMO

 

So the plot thickens and if nothing else it gives us all something to talk about!

Edited December 27, 2013 by Purga

[Duane S.]

Unable to track anywhere less favourable than W-E at worst, energy is digging SE that little bit deeper run after run, a very decent GFS 12z all in all. Throw the UKMO output into the mix and a good start to proceedings.

[MR EXTREMES]

The GFS 12z took longer to get there than I thought but it is definitelythe direction to look for cold to the UK. The UKMO is not very reliableat the t144 range but it is certainly not backing down and has in factfurther endorsed the trend for heights to the ne in its outer range.This is the direction I was hoping we would see in the earlier part ofthe run from the GFS.ECM certainly not without interest tonight.

you are kidding about the ukmo do you have the stats to back this statement up ?

[Mucka]

Hello for coldies what is the preference, today's 12z GFS or the UKMO 12z, and if the 12 UKMO would something please explain. Cheers.

 

That's actually a very good question and not one that is easy to answer given that GFS12z eventually goes on to deliver a nice set up while UKMO of course only goes out to 144h. The point being we can only compare like to like and talk in general terms rather than extrapolating what is likely show at day 10+.

So with that in mind I would always prefer the more amplified pattern and slowing down/disrupting the flow from the Atlantic as that offers more opportunity in general terms if we think in terms of buckling and splitting the jet to get low pressure to undercut giving us the prospect of some decent MLB or HLB setting up later.

 

Really, when we are generalising, it is a case of trying to get low pressure to our South and high pressure to our North as you know so we are looking for a pattern that we think will best aid that process. For me that is UKMO over the GFS 12z output to 144h

[IDO]

I know the GFS won't happen, but it was pretty much what Fergieweather updated us to with this morning, the tentative direction of some of MOGREPS/EC ens:

 

 

Low over Bay of Biscay and an easterly.

 

With the ops switching between the variations of the ens inter run, it is no surprise this option came out sooner or later (20% of the GFS 06z had this synoptic).

 

Not much difference at T144 between the GFS and UKMO. The UK links the Russian and Arctic High, the GFS just misses that linkage:

 

UK:  GFS:

 

Instead we have to wait longer for the GFS to link the Greenland heights with the Arctic high. The GH sinks SE and blocks the Atlantic. With the S.Euro upper trough acting as a block, that high can't sink further south, the Atlantic flow gets redirected south, to the Bay of Biscay region, hopefully reinforcing the upper trough. The Atlantic then undercuts till late March 

 

Why is it never as simple as that 

[Captain Shortwave]

GEM is not half bad tonight

No cold just yet but getting there and the synoptics are going the right way. Cold air is starting to Advance through Scandinavia though, but still a while to wait.

Lets hope for a stunning ECM then