scotland Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>

[LomondSnowstorm]

what about the kinks in the isobars will that contain a front or possible squall line or that which could contain gusts.

 

complete amateur question as I don't have a clue but that front we had in December 10 was just kinks like that was it not.

Oh I see what you mean now, that's a trough embedded in the flow, the kink with the event in December 2010 was a bit different but in essense it's a similar idea - around this area convection tends to become organised and also associated with increased winds.

This analysis showed a few of them lurking to our southwest and they're bound to crop up given the extent of this low (bringing with them associated squall lines) so this could swing round to bring further wind and rain/high ground snow tomorrow morning (although overall wind speeds will have reduced by this stage).

[Buriedundersnow]

12 o'clock revised chart has dropped the feature down south and made more of the kinks out west and maybe have something developing and pressure is down to 930mb that's a 4mb drop in the last hour things could get a little interesting here

 

 

936mb line moving back closer to lewis  aswell

Edited December 25, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[LomondSnowstorm]

12 o'clock revised chart has dropped the feature down south and made more of the kinks out west and maybe have something developing and pressure is down to 930mb that's a 4mb drop in the last hour things could get a little interesting here

 

1.gifeur_n_large.gif

 

I must say this second deepening is both concerning and surprising - it was meant to have weakened by now and certainly I didn't think it'd get back down to 930mb. It should still weaken but I doubt it'll get up to 940mb by 6am as the NAE has it:

[Buriedundersnow]

I must say this second deepening is both concerning and surprising - it was meant to have weakened by now and certainly I didn't think it'd get back down to 930mb. It should still weaken but I doubt it'll get up to 940mb by 6am as the NAE has it:

 

 

next revised chart will be key to see if its still deepening cos a 4mb drop in an hour then it very well could be

[Buriedundersnow]

1 o'clock initial chart has it at 935mb with no kinks or that maybe its way wrong like the last initial will wait for the revised to see what comes

 

Edited December 25, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[LomondSnowstorm]

1 o'clock initial chart has it at 935mb with no kinks or that maybe its way wrong like the last initial will wait for the revised to see what comes

 

eur_n_large.gif

 

Such big fluctuations seem a bit unlikely, especially moving 4mb in the one direction and then 5mb back in the other, and if it doesn't revise down I'd be tempted to say that the 00Z revision was erroneous.

[Buriedundersnow]

Such big fluctuations seem a bit unlikely, especially moving 4mb in the one direction and then 5mb back in the other, and if it doesn't revise down I'd be tempted to say that the 00Z revision was erroneous.

 

might possibly be as the 00z initial was 933mb then revised down to 930mb.

 

still looks on satellite like more than one centre spinning round could they have different pressures and be getting picked up on different ones.

Edited December 25, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

revised is at 934mb so looks like you were right LS

 

 

that's me done for the night I need my

 

if anyone wants the charts you can find them here

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=NEurope&date=2013122501&size=large〈=en&area=eur

 

have a good Christmas everyone and more fun Friday and the days running up to it

[lupe]

amen Bus

[Highland Snow]

Luke 2: 8 - 20:

 

8  And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night.
9  And, lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid.
10  And the angel said unto them, Fear not: for, behold, I bring you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people.
11  For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Saviour, which is Christ the Lord.
12  And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.
13  And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God, and saying,
14  Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.
15  And it came to pass, as the angels were gone away from them into heaven, the shepherds said one to another, Let us now go even unto Bethlehem, and see this thing which is come to pass, which the Lord hath made known unto us.
16  And they came with haste, and found Mary, and Joseph, and the babe lying in a manger.
17  And when they had seen it, they made known abroad the saying which was told them concerning this child.
18  And all they that heard it wondered at those things which were told them by the shepherds.
19  But Mary kept all these things, and pondered them in her heart.
20  And the shepherds returned, glorifying and praising God for all the things that they had heard and seen, as it was told unto them.

 

A very happy Christmas to all on the Kilted Thread.

 

 

[Colsuth]

Merry Christmas from Piper Bravo. Due home on friday afternoon so hoping that the weather is ok. Still 60 mile gusts here so confined to the accommodation.

[Polarlow]

Merry Xmas everyone  

[Blizzardo]

Merry Christmas everyone! A few rain showers rattling in this morning with the last one turning to sleet. 4.0c/2.9c.

I like the look of the ECM this morning with the trend being for small pressure rises over the Pole and Greenland forcing low pressure to our North West on a more NW/SE trajectory. This in turn is putting pressure on the vast area of high pressure over the near continent. It's baby steps just now but there does look like some potential for a gradual cool down and with that some opportunities for snow.

[Swave Snow]

We just had a snow shower in Aviemore, nothing settling, snowing again now

Edited December 25, 2013 by Swave Snow

[Allyw12]

Merry Christmas everyone hope you have a lovely day

Well after last nights gales and rain its now sunny and breezy temp 6.1

[lorenzo]

Very Merry Xmas folks... ( here we go again....) !!

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-3-1-60.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-12-1-60.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-15-1-60.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-16-1-60.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-17-1-60.png

 

[Norrance]

Merry Christmas to a'body.

Sun just disapearing as a shower rattles in. 5C.

Surprised not to find any damage about this morning as I heard quite a few bang and clatters in the night.

Away for a few pre lunch aperitifs now. Orrabest Nor.

Edited December 25, 2013 by Norrance

[November13]

Just need one flake for my bet at Glasgow.Merry Christmas everyone.

[Hairy Celt]

Merry Xmas from a twig-strewn Black Isle, just messy but no obvious damage so far. The strand line looks a bit mental. The wind is finally starting to settle down a bit - for now.  Off down to Cumbria for a spot of storm-chasing soon - well to see people really but the wind looks likely to be of interest there at the end of the week....

[Ravelin]

Well Santa finally delivered my Lidl weather station, all I need now is to get enough free time to actually get it out of the box.

 

Wind had died down by 7am child induced departure from bed. Mixture of early sun, cloud and a cold breeze, but I doubt it'll be quite cold enough for snow if we do see any showers. At least its dry for the kids in the street to get out on their new bikes and scooters.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

     MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!!   

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Well Santa finally delivered my Lidl weather station, all I need now is to get enough free time to actually get it out of the box.

 

 

I've just finished assembling a Polly Pocket Wall Party. Just for starters too.

 

Merry Christmas all.

[lorenzo]

I've just finished assembling a Polly Pocket Wall Party. Just for starters too.

 

Merry Christmas all.

 

Packaging is like some kind of twisted revenge imparted by the nation of China for sneaking off with a couple of their pandas.

[skyeblue]

Merry xmas .Think bus might sleep to sometime in April

[Buriedundersnow]

Merry xmas .Think bus might sleep to sometime in April

 

 

unfortunately not I was up bright and early this morning just not so much of the bright from me lol.

 

little hints still in the models this morning and I was right the ECM and GFS are starting to hint at the same sort of thing.

 

both have low heights on the slide northwest to southeast wanting to try put low heights into Europe and trying to put higher heights into Greenland.

 

ECM

 

 

GFS

 

 

now this is a pattern that has cropped up several times inside GFS FI and now the ECM is trying to come on board with it but they haven't got it sorted out yet and more runs are needed to see if we can get anywhere.

 

the pattern isn't a sure fire thing as pointed out to me before we need to see it in the strat charts as well and its not there yet but that may come along plus the bit of vortex being left in Canada is always a pain and could scupper things.

 

also although the AO forecast is going negative (today has thrown a few very positive members in so may need to keep an eye on this) there are still differences in the NAO forecast with it mainly in the neutral territory and I wont get any confidence just yet in Greenland being a possible solution till we see the NAO forecast go negative but its early days yet and still all to play for.

 

I don't know how reliable these will be today with it being Christmas but seen as its computer generated it should be fairly reliable but will just watch the next few days to see how these go.

 

 

now this could all come to nothing just as I had saw something come up in the model several times I thought I would follow and see if it goes anywhere but as we saw last time I could be wrong  but apart from the odd northerly coming in I cant see anything else of note to watch yet apart from one or two hints to our north east but this has popped up more so I will go for this the now and if we do take another attempt at Greenland it wont be for another 12 or so days I think.

 

hope santa left everyone what they wished for under the tree and you are all enjoying the day very much.