scotland Scotland - Regional Discussion - 23/12/13 >>>

[LomondSnowstorm]

Had a technical White Christmas here with sleety flakes mixed in with rain showers at around 12.30pm

[Northernlights]

Hope everyone is having a good Christmas Day.  Got cattle done in morning then feet up in the afternoon.

 

Some minor damage from last night including a couple of skylight windows and more slates off the steading roof . Lots of water poured in the  draughty window frames diven in by the wind on the southside of the farmhouse so towels were used to soak it up. Appears to be a few trees down next to the wood and various branches so a bit more tidying up to do in the New Year.

 

Set up Christmas dinner table last night next to the Rayburn in case the power went.

 

 Turkey dinner was excellent home grown sprouts picked and cooked within half an hour,parsnips and carrots. Everyone mucked in with special mention to Aurora Storm for a marathon potato/parsnip peeling effort last night. 

 

 Currently  a moderate breeze, clear and 3.8c.

Edited December 25, 2013 by Northernlights

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

No idea why chemikal can get them to embed but I can't.

 

Wee Christmas song.

 

Edited December 25, 2013 by lorenzo
Just pasting You Tube link vs. Linking address seems to do the trick

[Zenarcher]

Merry Christmas everyone hope your'e having a good day! 

Got sent these images yesterday from Barra in the Western Isles some minor damage throughout but some of its been caused by the recent storms as well,

 

 

 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Edited by lorenzo, 31 minutes ago. 
Just pasting You Tube link vs. Linking address seems to do the trick

 

A-ha; got you. Cheers.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Gateux and cream!!! anyway, what are people saying about Friday???

[milkmaid]

merry christmas ,that was indeed a strange storm for us

[Buriedundersnow]

Gateux and cream!!! anyway, what are people saying about Friday???

 

 

Fridays storm still looks like the details are to be sorted fully with the ECM and UKMO wanting the strongest of the winds for northern England while the GFS wants to give us a good hit but we will have to watch for the next 24hrs while everything is firmed up fully and if you look back a page or two ROGER J SMITH popped in last night and gave us some really good insight into what this storm could be like and basically he feels this storm is far more dynamic than last nights storm and could very well hold stronger winds

 

heres the charts

 

ECM

 

 

UKMO

 

 

GFS

 

 

with regards to what I have been looking at further on for us cold lovers and the GFS 12z has taken a fairly good step forward with a substantial block developing in the arctic with the colours we all like to see and heights getting a better shot at Greenland but again didn't stick although looks prime for another go after but that's nothing to worry about at this stage as there is plenty of time left to sort everything out if this is the road we are to go down plus for newcomers if you look through my video links below of cold winters in the past then you may notice we don't always hit first time and it can sometimes take 2,3 or even 4 shots to get it right.

 

heres the charts

 

 

the ECM 12z wants to give us a temporary scandi high which sinks then toward the end looks like it may be lining up a go at Greenland similar to the GFS pattern and I am sure this is where things are going to go in the end although heights toward Scandinavia isn't out of the question yet.

 

heres the charts

 

 

now onto the strat and its too early to tell anything from the ECM at this stage that will come in the next 5 or so days maybe a little sooner but the GFS strat charts have thrown us some good things to look at with first the 6z hinting towards Greenland and the 12z taking a better step towards Greenland and looking like it might want to try split the vortex but with it being FI then as always not reliable at this moment but always good to see anyway.

 

heres the charts 6z left and 12z right

 

 

again these are only forecasts but with the current wave 2 and possibly some wave 1 in the forecast this could be a possibility although remember this isn't a strat warming yet but wave activity can certainly give us cold and open up the vortex to taking even more punishment from future developments but we will find out a lot more once it gets into ECM reliable strat forecasts.

Edited December 25, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[NorthernRab]

Nollaig Chridheil dhuibh uile / A Merry Christmas to you all! 

 

We had a technical white Christmas here with some snow falling, but nothing lay and we had one hell of a Christmas eve in terms of wind! 

 

Hope it's been a great day for you all 

[Buriedundersnow]

another thing on the coming storm this is where the NASA HIGH RES has things on its 0z run the 12z will be out later tonight.

 

I was watching the NASA model with last nights storm and I feel it had a better handle on it than the other models and was fairly steady with its forecasts but with models we can never tell until 0hr if it is right or not but heres what it is showing anyway

 

[edo]

Merry Xmas!!! been in Dundee and all quiet apart from a squally shower at 15.30 typically as unloading a full car....

My cousin just told me how he's looking forward to a corporate day of golf on Friday at St Andrews.... I giggled and warned him he may want to calm his enthusiasm....might be tad windy..... No sign of flakes here... Did Glasgow get a technical white Xmas for bets purposes?

[lupe]

Hey all,

 

well hope the day went well for all you folks,  thanks bus for the info,as a newbie its great info on what is going on.  you must be on the red bull by now!  

Over my way its 4.6 degrees and breezy...no snow but a heavy sleet shower last night..

 

So,  i have my new glow in the dark wolf shirt on, my new socks on and a rifle ready for the next box of after eight mints i see...(yuck)   Im not a xmas person at all but its been great and loved this forum at the same time to..

Everything is crossed for friday,  We more or less get the eye of the depression and i have no idea what that will bring apart from a 950mb i think? Will be real interesting, 2 sleeps to go!!

 

Anyway, sorry to but in on any chatting...but thanks again for a great few days keeping the dream alive guy's.    Time for a cuppa now, but i do wish you guys a good few days and the best new year when it comes......its just so refreshing to meet a "real nice group of people"

 

roll on friday!!

[Zenarcher]

Lastest GFS shows the low reach 944mb as it crosses Scotland during Friday morning and afternoon,

 

 

The strong winds will arrive for Scotland as early as Thursday evening with 50 to 60mph gusts along the South and West,

 

 

3am Friday the winds ease off quickly for these parts but pick up along Eastern and Northern Scotland where gusts will be the same 50 to 60mph but the Eastern coasts may see 70mph. From 6am to 12pm winds will generally be not on the severe side as the low passes over us but Southern Scotland may see 55mph gusts.

 

Onto Friday afternoon and into the evening the West, South and East can expect 50 to 65mph gusts and the South Eastern coasts may touch 70mph for a time as well,

 

 

After 9pm the winds quickly drop down as the low pressure moves away.

[Buriedundersnow]

other signs towards something colder in the new year are the ensembles.

 

now just a note to anyone looking in who doesn't fully know the models the GFS doesn't really tell u much in FI as it has a tendency as a model to go for ordinary zonal patterns (low after low from the west) but there is still colder runs in the mix which is a good sign from the GFS ensembles

 

 

better sign is the ECM ensembles which are defo going for a cool down into January

 

heres the 0z for London

 

 

and the 12z from a different source and for Holland as the other 12z isn't out for a while yet but its still pointing at a cool down for beginning of January

 

[Bullseye]

Merry Christmas everyone enjoy. Hoping for 8 foot of snaw for next 3 months like 47 winter, dosen't sound like much does it?

[aggy]

Had enough of storms now

Any way merry blooming crimbo lovely people x

[Zenarcher]

Had enough of storms nowAny way merry blooming crimbo lovely people x

 

I know what you mean this month alone we've had 5 storms affect the 6th, 14th, 15th, 19th, 24th and soon to be 27th. We have been stuck in a unsettled spell of weather for all of December and it can usually take a while to get out of but recent model runs show at the moment more settled weather after the 27th. Still some wet and windy weather around but at the moment no more storms on the horizon.

[blitzen]

Evening all. Hope you had a lovely day. Certainly got a bit breezy last night here but been ok today. Looking forward to tomorrow  which will be much more relaxing.  I feel really tired now with all the cooking etc over the last few days. All worth it though and family enjoyed it.

I have kind of lost track of the weather. Will pop into MOD and have a look.

[howham]

Merry Christmas all! Bright, cold and dry. I'll take that.

[blitzen]

Certainly not going to get my knickers in a twist trying to follow the next storm. I think at the end of the day the last one caught us all by surprise! At the mo it looks like those further south of us are in the firing line.

[mistyqueen]

Happy Boxing Day all! Glad to see that things have calmed down now and it appears that not too much damage had been done. The storm wasn't nearly as bad here as anticipated, no power cuts, so Xmas dinner was just dandy. Even managed to get out twice yesterday for a walk as we basically were just slothing it on Xmas Eve! Calm here now, hoping to get out again today for a good walk to work off some of yesterday's marathon scoff! My family know me too well........so much chocolate....so little time!!!

[lorenzo]

Morning All and Happy Boxing Day.

 

Pretty cold overnight last night with a wee bit of frost this morning, minimum temps as of 0600.

 

More active weather inbound today as this train of lows fuelled by that strong jet continues. Current Fax and surface obs. put this low in the mid-Atlantic at around 968mb, with another 25mb drop expected as the bombogenesis continues.

 

The low maturing and reaching a depth of 943mb by midnight.

 

Maintains good strength also as it approaches the UK.

 

ECM / GFS / UKMO - for around mid-day tomorrow.

 

UKMO Fax shows the centre of the low in comparison to our Xmas Eve / Xmas Day visitor not being as far North of the country, meaning that the windfield may have an impact to areas further south this time.

 

Gust profiles

 

Couple of images from satellite of #Erich (think that's the name for this one).

 

More weather warnings to keep an eye on, feel really sorry for areas already impacted by flooding more rain inbound, good snow potential showing also overnight on the NMM.

 

Enjoy the nice clear crisp weather today - the Atlantic washing machine / Snawbag Jnr is inbound..

 

 

 

 

 

[Highland Snow]

Happy Saint Stephen's Day to all on The Kilted Thread.

 

Minimum here was 2.2C at 03:02. Currently 4.0C(+1.0C/hr).

 

18.8mm of rain yesterday and especialy wet between 15:00 and 16:00 bringing total rainfall for December to 164.9mm. The R. Almond is high and has brought a considerable amount of silt downriver. The salmon run should be continuing due to the very dry conditions up to the last week of October.

[Highland Snow]

I wonder!?

 

[BleakMidwinter]

Looks like the sky got broken in the storms, as there's some bright stuff leaking out now, sort of yellow and shining. Also, all of the sky that's visible is a really strange colour, sort of bright blue. I'm guessing it'll all get mended by Friday though?