Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[tight isobar]

Better alignment atlantic energy already 12z

[karlos1983]

10 mb higher pressure over Greeny at T66

 

Going to give yourself heart failure if you try and analyze each frame, trust me, that used to be my downfall

[Panayiotis]

Just something to remember the 06z GFS has always had a bias to move everything east. These westward 'corrections' are to be expected from the 12z...

[Mapantz]

Just something to remember the 06z GFS has always had a bias to move everything east. These westward 'corrections' are to be expected from the 12z...

I'm not seeing hardly any westward correction, the low on the 12Z is actually further north.

[shaky]

I'm not seeing hardly any westward correction, the low on the 12Z is actually further north.

is it futher east though!!

[Joe Levy]

There are lots of comments on the minute details of this 12z GFS run which, as interesting as they are, will only cause anxiety and worry! We are only 90 hours in and yes, the high pressure to our north is stronger, but that has little bearing on what will actually happen. This is not a make or break situation, this is a finely balanced situation in which small changes will continue to alter what we see in the output! It is still far enough away that the general trend is the most crucial aspect.

[tight isobar]

is it futher east though!!

its when easterly flow developes you look for westward correction, im liking early frames.

[Paul]

Very busy in here tonight, for those who may be new to model watching - you can view all the major models here:

 

GFS

ECMWF

ECMWF EPS

GEFS Ensembles

UK Met

Fax

GEM

Compare The Big 4

 

Happy model watching

 

Thought it would be handy to repost the above as the 12z watching session gets underway! 

 

Also, for those comparing the 06z and the 12z on the GFS (or the 00z and the 12z on the ecm), you can look at them alongside eachother on the viewers - just click the previous run button on the right hand menu and you can compare like for like:

 

[Mapantz]

is it futher east though!!

Very slightly at T+81. The post regarding northerly movement was the difference between the 06Z and 12Z at T+60.

[nick sussex]

Look upstream, key change which will effect the phasing near the UK, over the eastern USA, more amplified in line with expectations from NCEP.

[radiohead]

Just something to remember the 06z GFS has always had a bias to move everything east. These westward 'corrections' are to be expected from the 12z...

 

I'm not sure if this is possible. The 06Z GFS is simply the same computers running the same formula as the 0Z or 12Z runs, the only difference is that initial conditions have been updated since the previous run. I'm not sure how that would lead to any kind of directional bias for our part of the globe.

 

Perhaps Snowballz can shed some light on this, if she is around.

Edited January 9, 2014 by radiohead

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well early doors but i think i detect a small upgrade here guys the blocking to the north and north east looks better placed,dont shoot the melinda though!

[Nick L]

If you spend every run trying to see whether it's moved a mile west or east, you're going to drive yourself to insanity. Just look at the bigger picture, there will always be run-to-run variability.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

If you spend every run trying to see whether it's moved a mile west or east, you're going to drive yourself to insanity. Just look at the bigger picture, there will always be run-to-run variability.

Agreed to a certain extent nick but small changes can have big effects !!

[tight isobar]

If you spend every run trying to see whether it's moved a mile west or east, you're going to drive yourself to insanity. Just look at the bigger picture, there will always be run-to-run variability.

agreed but after yesterday's drama's most will be scrutinising per frame.

[MR EXTREMES]

its looking like a fail heights to far east this would give even more reasoning to the met office and why they are cautious.

but it does so far look bad from the gfs 12z at t114 but this could change in the next few frames but knife edge if this one fails then I totally give up on an easterly.

 

but then the 6z was poor for southern areas

[DubWeatherAddict]

I'm not sure if this is possible. The 06Z GFS is simply the same computers running the same formula as the 0Z or 12Z runs, the only difference is that initial conditions have been updated since the previous run. I'm not sure how that would lead to any kind of directional bias for our part of the globe.

 

Perhaps Snowballz can shed some light on this, if she is around.

 

 

Actually the 06z doesnt include much radiosonde data as the 12z along with some other things. The 12z would have the most input . 

[shaky]

Right am getting mixed messages here!!has this run backed west or gone gone east?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Nice SAcandy high of 1030mb in place at 120,can it force the jet to disrupt?

[Downpour]

 THEY AREN'T!!!I just re-iterated that above: they expect the easterly feed across UK established by later next week, BUT the degree to how pronounced this becomes; the areal scope of below-average temps (i.e. E-W, N-S); the propensity for snow; plus the longevity are all unknowns.So to be clear (again): for now, the lean towards the EC-NCEP colder solutions BUT note that MOGREPS is less bullish (and might yet prove correct).You will not hear terminology like 'cold blast' from Exeter at this juncture, because in their view, it's just standard January colder fare - contra Daily Express hyperbole.

Thanks Ian. I actually wrote the OP before I read your update. My apologies - and thanks for your nuances. 

[Joe Levy]

"Totally giving up" and "fail" are absolutes - the weather is not about absolutes, it is about getting as close to the right forecast as we can, with caveats about timing and all sorts of little details. If this run "fails" I am not giving up on an Easterly. There are some excellent features in this run that would serve in our favour in the long run, such as stronger heights to our north. This does not guarantee their occurrence but it is a good signal. In any case this run looks as promising as any other run I have seen lately i.e. I am not a fortune teller and not an expert!

its looking like a fail heights to far east this would give even more reasoning to the met office and why they are cautious.

but it does so far look bad from the gfs 12z at t114 but this could change in the next few frames but knife edge if this one fails then I totally give up on an easterly.

 

but then the 6z was poor for southern areas

Edited January 9, 2014 by Joe Levy

[bluearmy]

there is no back track from the gfs 12z in the short term - looks more ukmo than gem re the 00z output. the pendulum stays put at the day 5 range and a comparison with the 12z from yesterday shows how far it has swung in 24 hours. (select 'live compare' on meteociel)

[MR EXTREMES]

no neg tilt perfect round low pressure its a fail dreadful climb down by the gfs.

can it still slide under don't look like it.

[sebastiaan1973]

UKMO 96h, that are of low pressure reaching from the Atlantic to the coast of southern Norway is bad. It prevents a northerly expansion of WA.

[Snowy L]

Low pressure is not well orientated in this run, need the isobars to straighten out on it's leading edge.

These last few winters have spoiled us, I've forgotten how frustrating the models can be at times, looks like another cold spell that got away, 3rd time this winter...