Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKMO is a disaster for flood hit areas with copious ammounts of rain as the block gets shoved way out east.

Its just one low after another barrelling across the Atlantic,sick of it.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKMO turns out OK.

 

We can work with this

 

Can i ask whats Ok about it eagle? 

[Sussex Jules]

UKMO turns out OK.

 

We can work with this

 

 

 

ukmo nearly identical to the gfs

there is nothing that can be positive about the ukmo run and to be honest I cant see the ukmo and gfs being wrong.

Can somebody tell me who is right and who is wrong because comments like this just add to the confusion on here

[gottolovethisweather]

Its gone from -8c to +4 on top of the Scottish hills in one run at T240....just shows models have no clue at this range...

 

Yes Ali, something is certainly up, up there above us with the PV shifting, all NWP is currently in a state of confusion. This will ultimately be illustrated in the relative near-term scatter (approximately t+108 to t+144 timeframe if not earlier) of Northern Hemispheric options via the various ensembles spreads.

 

Check out the link I posted earlier (as below) for those potentially confused by my statement above, nothing has yet been nailed but we will know our fate soon I guess.  Best wait for this link to be updated this evening and look for where the various UK synoptic options begin, on the chart below it was at t+108 hours which would now be t+90 hours at the current time. Put simply, something is afoot.

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=fr&run=00&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNM&hh=108

Edited January 9, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[IDO]

Errrm the Pressure is still high over Scandi on all those frame, indeed @240 the wind direction is easterly over central Britain 

 

 

High, was talking about the original Scandi High at T144: 

 

Later in the run we get a daughter high from near the Arctic that slowly sinks towards Scandi.

[The Eagle]

The UKMO is good IMO for longer term prospects. Jet is north - south and signs of height rises toward GL.

[Panayiotis]

ukmo nearly identical to the gfs

there is nothing that can be positive about the ukmo run and to be honest I cant see the ukmo and gfs being wrong.

They are different!

1)Low coming out of Canada on GFS already going over the ridge, whereas the UKMO canadian low is helping the ridge...

2) Heights further north on UKMO over Scandi

 

Edited January 9, 2014 by Panayiotis

[shaky]

Ukmo better better especially at 120 hours!!could be a battleground snow event on that chart acroos england!!looks Looks pretty cold!!one things for sure its better than the gfs!!

[Snowman.]

Can somebody tell me who is right and who is wrong because comments like this just add to the confusion on here

Open these in two tabs.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014010912/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014010912/UN144-21.GIF?09-17

 

Make the judgement yourself.

[bobbydog]

What's a SWW?

 

Sudden Whinging and Whining?......

 

 

anyway, i think its worth bearing in mind that our cold weather (or not) apparently depends strongly on the interaction and disruption of these two LP systems at T+90 hrs -

 

 

 

which don't even exist yet......

[The Eagle]

Can i ask whats Ok about it eagle? 

 

 

The LP to the west is moving north - south. Similar to the GFS but better + height rises toward GL + less sinking of the high to the east means colder pool remains more or less in tact.

[Matty M]

Although things don't look great, there is still room for frontal snow across the UK. In particular it is not game over for Northern parts with the cold air being advected in at times as the lows move across B&I. And this line could move north and south in upcoming runs.

[MR EXTREMES]

and to top it of another model the jma

its incredible to see such a dramatic change if anything id be inclined to say its the worst ive seen since being a member of net weather complete turn around from nearly all models so far except the better gem.

Edited January 9, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[SW Saltire]

IF did warn of increasing 'Shannon entropy' a couple of days ago. This is clearly illustrated in the NWP. GEM still good, UKMO is ok, but if either the UKMO or the horrendous GFS verified we would need to start building a netweather ark. If the ECM is better and crucially the ECM's ensembles then I'll still be happy. People will say wait till the 0z, they will conclusively decide. No, the journey has only just begun

[cooling climate]

At this rate give another day or two and there will be no sigh of an easterly in the models

and we will wonder what all the fuss was about.

The UKMO at t144 just about dangles a carrot but you would have to think that the heights

over Scandinavia will drain away southeast similar to the GFS run.

 

Only good point on the GFS 12z as some have already mentioned is the stratosphere warming

in FI. You never know we might see a cold snap in february with -5c 850's covering the country.

Real polar vortex weather.

[LeeSnowFan]

YIKES

 

 

For Myself who is stil learning these charts and newbies can you explain this instead of saying YIKES as it dosent help?

Thanks

[shedhead]

Fair to say the 12 GFS has all appeal of a pound of chillies in your boxers, but UKMO is still half decent to say the least at 144hrs, with the potential to develop into something cold if it went to 168-192hrs.

 

 

 

 

For now though all eyes turn to ECM, will it be Bollinger or Boddingtons? We don't have long til we find out.

 

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

For Myself who is stil learning these charts and newbies can you explain this instead of saying YIKES as it dosent help?

Thanks

I think its about another Atlantic low about to dump another load of rain on the UK Lee.

[UV-RAY]

I think I'll await the weekends output before casting judgement the UKMO is better with heights looking more robust and further North, however it's a fluid situation so best to sit back from afar and cast a beady eye on developments.

[mountain shadow]

The Met does goes to T+168 but its not for public view.

Maybe Mr Ferguson could tell us whether it undercuts or not.

[Weather-history]

Crikey, I have just looked at the first 3 GFS Ensembles at 150hrs on meteociel and the difference between them is staggering.

Surely that is an error?

Edited January 9, 2014 by Weather-history

[mulzy]

Not sure the 850s on this UKMO 144 chart are right - can anyone of the experts confirm or otherwise please...

 

 

 

[weather eater]

The Golden rule of model watching is, whatever the models are showing at 72hrs plus is going to change and when we we are talking 120hrs plus they are going to change substantially. If you follow that rule you shouldn’t get surprised or disappointed when cold runs go to pot and you shouldn’t get bullish about them verifying either. If you apply those rules to today’s 12z GFS output, then whatever the synoptics being modelling are at 132hrs, those synoptics are going change over the next few days, they may be poorer, they may be better but they will be different. The Low pressure system being modelled to our west at 132hrs which was elongated in earlier runs allowing it to undercut in the way we want is now rather round, not good, but the likelihood is that its shape and track will continue to evolve over the next few days, give me pragmatism over optimism or pessimism any day of the week.

[Matty M]

A wide spread of solutions on the GFS ensembles.

Certainly compounds the fact that this is still very much up in the air.

ECMWF will be intriguing and also it's ENS

[MR EXTREMES]

is there any chance that the gem could produce an alantic block or even a Greenland block in its latest frame?

straw clutching I know....