Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Paul]

Again, posts like:

 

"This run is bad"

"This run is a shocker"

"That's it, the cold isn't coming"

 

Are not model discussion, they're model reaction, and that sort of reaction is not what this thread is for so please put them over into the model banter thread:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78680-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-winter-201314/

 

Posts are being removed because of this, it's wasting your time and the teams time, and ultimately for those who won't make the effort to make sure their posts are relevant to the thread they're posted into, it will lead to the possibility of being stopped from posting into any of the model threads. No-one wants that to happen, but equally those using this thread deserve to be able to use it as intended - ie as a discussion about the model output, not as a toy throwing, emotional rollercoaster with no actual model related info within a large portion of the posts.

 

Please take heed of this!!!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Bit of a straw clutch here but it's certainly true that the models are struggling with how the lows out west interact with the block, and I wonder if we've been here before with the previous low - on Tuesday the ECM 12Z was showing this for Tuesday 14th:

Taking 48+ hours to disrupt the trough southeastwards:

But by tonight's run we see a cleaner undercut on the first low, albeit with the second one then proving more problematic:

By the time it disrupts it basically stalls, failing to get any further east:

 

I do wonder if, with another 24 hours of modelling, we'll see the models getting a better grip on the second low and maybe even getting a decent undercut.

The other thing of course is that the Scandi high is modelled a bit further east on this run, but with better trough disruption under the block you'd expect the heights to back a bit further west anyway.

Edited January 9, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

@ Beng 144 Charts 65%

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECH1-168.GIF?09-0

 

If you want to see what the curvature of the lines we need to see @ 144 when the front approaches its at 168 just to the East of the UK ( in the north sea) lines bending back SE into the continent.

 

It would be nice to salvage something like the ECM 00z from this with continued jet flow NW SE allowing the Scandi high to remain in situ...

 

S

Is the jet just digging too far south on much of the 12z output?

[R.P. McMurphy]

Surely this can`t be right, the low pressure all but vanishes south.

 

Edit: wrong chart.

 

Well thats interesting. Instead of it just going right through and destroying all hopes, it sinks completely south....

 

Hmmmm

[Long haul to mild]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECM1-192.GIF?09-0

 

The Low now meanders around aimlessly in the Atlantic, although it has spawned a second feature to the South near Portugal. Whether that will have any effect for us though is debatable,

[Stuie]

Well thats interesting. Instead of it just going right through and destroying all hopes, it sinks completely south....

 

Hmmmm

Exactly, last week it powers through, this hits a brick wall. Maybe a battleground is starting to take shape?

[SMU]

Is the jet just digging too far south on much of the 12z output?

No its going South & SW towards the azores on the 12z ECM-

 

needs to be SSE

 

at least the scandi high is still there @ 192.

 

S

[Ali1977]

It's a pretty strong Scandy high at 192, maybe I that was slightly further North it would help the low slide...definitely some changes to come.

[R.P. McMurphy]

No its going South & SW towards the azores on the 12z ECM-

 

needs to be SSE

 

at least the scandi high is still there @ 192.

 

S

 

Yup, as long as the pressure remains over Scandi, we always have a shot at getting cold weather...

 

[Long haul to mild]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECM1-216.GIF?09-0

 

Lots of low heights into Iberia at T216 and SE winds picking up over the UK....

[phil nw.]

We have just removed another 15 off topic posts.

Please take note of the teams requests to stay on topic in this thread please everyone.

It helps people reading your posts to understand your views if you refer to the charts and not your emotions- which as you know belong in the other threads.

It also saves the team a lot of hassle which would be much appreciated too.

 

Thanks all.

[Bobby]

Odd looking charts from the ECM, warm air being pumped up from N. Africa, certainly not cold.

 

[bluearmy]

the ecm makes more of the small ridge from the azores T120, which then prevents the trough from sinking se and it heads south. there has been a cluster of runs doing this on the ens so no surprise to see this evolution. no reason to think its going to be like this tomorrow post day 6. clearly we have now lost the battle to get the initial depression to disrupt favourably. At day 5 although there is a sniff on the ecm and that could easily develop further as an individual occurance. thereafter,the models seem to agree that the next system will stay solid and circular, rather than elongate and disrupt se. this is where we still have chances that tomorrow will see a change on this but as each day passes the models should have a better handle on the solution. tbh, looking at this ecm op run, its a comlpete mess and that alone should tell us plenty about what we are seeing. the ecm ens due out at 8-30 to see how the spreads look and the london ens at 11pm. thats about all its worth looking at later on as i doubt the 18z gfs will give much decent guidance (whatever it shows, would we believe it?)

[nick sussex]

You really couldn't make it up, displaced Azores high, block to the ne and yet someone ran over a black cat and the models want to dish this up! Very bizarre and how you get from the ECM120hrs to the 144hrs with zero trough disruption and football low!

 

The upstream pattern and block to the ne should be a lock in cold set up but somehow the models aren't listening.

[Thundery wintry showers]

As well as the continental air being kept away to the east, the other issue is that we could easily end up with a south-easterly type with modified continental air coming in, which would be quite cold at the surface but relatively mild at the 850hPa level, meaning stability and stratocumulus trapped underneath a cap.  The GFS T+168 chart gives us a good example of this:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20140109/12/168/h850t850eu.png

The ECMWF chart at T+168 is also similar.  There are two main issues, the proximity of the stubborn trough to the west, and the high pressure ridging south from Scandinavia, which helps to bring relatively mild air in from the SE rather than directing the coldest air directly westwards.

[TSNWK]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECM1-216.GIF?09-0 Lots of low heights into Iberia at T216 and SE winds picking up over the UK....

Se winds from Africa via Italy..

[mountain shadow]

We appear to be missing the North Italian low which was on earlier runs.

.Just needing a trigger low.

[R.P. McMurphy]

I

 

Odd looking charts from the ECM, warm air being pumped up from N. Africa, certainly not cold.

 

 

It's not that odd - it's because of the lows in Iberia, pumping up the air.

 

 

Oh and just to add, it will certainly feel cold with that feed. Just not cold enough for snow. It's the 850's that will be high.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Glenn W

[Blizzardof82]

You really couldn't make it up, displaced Azores high, block to the ne and yet someone ran over a black cat and the models want to dish this up! Very bizarre and how you get from the ECM120hrs to the 144hrs with zero trough disruption and football low!

 

The upstream pattern and block to the ne should be a lock in cold set up but somehow the models aren't listening.

Maybe the weather will though Nick

 

Why are the lows not distributing and going under the block? 

[Tamara]

I must be one of what seems to be too few members who is finding the evolution of this pattern fascinating and is enjoying it rather than finding it a mood rollercoaster   So much is changing from the pattern of the first half of this winter and for me, just as one illustration, the latest ECM output is underpinning that yet again, irrespective of face value outcomes. 

 

So much variance evident in the modelling as early as day 5 as illustrated by a few posters this evening already - and the balancing act between the heights to the NE and the attempted trough disruption to the west which the models are finding a complex equation to evaluate after the comparative ease of a tramline zonality conveyor belt so far this winter is a welcome sight to see imo after what we have been used to.

 

Much to anticipate and watch - as stated this morning. Enjoy, its only the weather 

[cooling climate]

The ECM 12z finishes with one of the mildest mid January east/southeasterlies

I think I have seen.

Can not take that run seriously. Nothing to do with not showing cold it just looked

totally implausable.

[Captain Shortwave]

Man alive, stratus city sums the ECM up, mild 850s, cool surface temperatures and a very stable atmosphere. I guess it's slightly better than the wash out recently, but frankly one could go mad from boredom if the ECM verified as there is no quick way out of this

JMA follows the other models in sinking the low towards the Canary Isles

Edited January 9, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

if anyone posts that the T240 ecm shows potential ..................................

[Long haul to mild]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECM1-240.GIF?09-0

 

Atlantic quiet as a dormouse; winds starting to swing more to the East, but block to the E may be sinking due to pressure from LP to the north of Scandi?

[minus 9]

At the end of the day the models predict what might happen. Not what is going to happen.could all b different tomorrow morning. I think we are along way off predicting anything past 120hrs with any confidence.