Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Can the block over Scandy have enough muscle to disrupt the second big low incoming at 144h?

I hope so

[John Cox]

Yes an utter lottery and some of the runs are sensational for cold/snow!

.....and just so people are not feeling too downhearted.

This forecast from our Irish met office today:

 

"The general outlook for next week is for an easterly airflow to become established over Ireland. Many areas having mainly dry weather but some wintry showers likely at times in the south, east and northeast. Rather cold with highs of about 4 to 7 degrees in moderate to fresh mainly easterly winds. Night frosts in areas sheltered from the wind."

[Mucka]

-6c uppers are not required for snow if there is an easterly feed. -2c should do the trick. ECM looks good to me with -4c uppers and the low slipping under

 

Hmm that is not what we were discussing though is it?

Most of those GFS members are a world away from that ECM 120 chart but never mind, carry on.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

-6c uppers are not required for snow if there is an easterly feed. -2c should do the trick. ECM looks good to me with -4c uppers and the low slipping under

That may true for inland areas but coastal counties would struggle for snow under -2c uppers.

[cooling climate]

You have to laugh ECM at t120 showing a different solution to its previous runs and

different again from the UKMO and GFS.

Having said that it shows much more promise of than that of the other two models and

is quite a good chart with the potential for some wet snow.

[shaky]

Can the block over Scandy have enough muscle to disrupt the second big low incoming at 144h?I hope so

well if that high carries on getting sucked towards iceland greenland then there should be an undercut but if it sinks then the low will bulldoze through!!

[supernova]

Well not quite the continuation of yesterday's stellar runs many were hoping for from both GFS and UKMO but all is not yet lost and a possible SSW being discussed in the Strat thread, albeit still in FI http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78161-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20132014/page-48

 

For those who've thrown in the towel already there are still a number of potential solutions, even within tonight's offerings, which could provide a noteworthy event for most...

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile ECM rolling and looks very promising, even at 120hrs 

 

Edit: Just seen 144hrs  

Edited January 9, 2014 by supernova

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECH1-144.GIF?09-0

 

& the third near miss & rain event ( snow over Hills Scotland ) of the day.

 

What a poor day - models hero to zero in 24 hours.

[Gaz1985]

Chilly uppers but no where near as cold as what was showing yesterday - so still a downgrade with the deep cold. But like I said yesterday I will sit on fence until Sunday. I think our fate will be known by then, lots of twists and turns in this saga to come I think.

 

Edited January 9, 2014 by Gaz1985

[Matty M]

When you actually look at it, there is quite good continuity between the big three models @ 144hrs!

 

Potential cold spell postponed, but wouldn't take toooo much to swing it back in our favour.

 

Need a signal for less aggressive Atlantic lows in the coming days.

[Mucka]

Now this is the part that confuses me, I just can't understand the lack of disruption on this next low. Maybe someone can explain because to me it should disrupt earlier as it pushes up against the high pressure.

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Just blasted through the 12z - quite a downgrade TBH from yesterday  - 832 online so generating interest at least - early days as per usual etc etc.... but some members might be reaching for the valium.

 

Ian

[bluearmy]

the theme yesterday was the way that nearly all the models took the scandi ridge across to our north towards greenland. clearly, they were wrong en masse as they are all back towards n scandi again. given that we are one day closer to verification on this, you wouldnt expect them to revert back west again tomorow.

[beng]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECH1-144.GIF?09-0

 

& the third near miss & rain event ( snow over Hills Scotland ) of the day.

 

What a poor day - models hero to zero in 24 hours.

 

Steve - any chance of you having a stab at the probability of the t144 chart verifying?  I'd have expected more energy to head SEwards - based off the t120 chart.  

[Bristawl Si]

As is usually the case in these winter set ups the UK is roughly the 'boundary' between cold and less cold.

If we're lucky we're on the 'right' side; if not, we're on the 'wrong' side.

Standard fayre in winter -, me thinks. Outlook to be decided....and probably only at T24

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Looks very similar to UKMO at 144 so will be interesting to see where it goes from here

[MR EXTREMES]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECH1-144.GIF?09-0

 

& the third near miss & rain event ( snow over Hills Scotland ) of the day.

 

What a poor day - models hero to zero in 24 hours.

ive given up steve really have its not happening cross model agreement in that more unsettled weather but nothing from the east.

ive taken a deep breath and excepted that this is a none runner.

 

the only hope is the alantic high will get futher north into southern Greenland.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Erghhh the GFS is so so so so so close, we are literally on the cusp of that real decent cold just across the N sea over Denmark. Such a fine line separates us. Will it, or wont it? Just reminds me too much of that early Feb 2012 where we just missed out by a hairs breadth of real decent cold. Tense is not the word!!

 

Also to note, while Northern Europe heads into the freezer, we see South East Europe possibly hit by a mid winter heatwave if you like! 15c uppers knocking on the door of S Greek Isles in the forseeable!

Edited January 9, 2014 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[weather eater]

No it’s poor, big round LPs no good to anyone, but it’s at 144hrs, there will be more changes, let’s hope more favourable one’s.

[Long haul to mild]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECM1-168.GIF?09-0

 

Low sinking SSE at T168 and filling as it does so; seems like a good sign maybe?

[Stuie]

Surely this can`t be right, the low pressure all but vanishes south.

 

Edit: wrong chart.

Edited January 9, 2014 by StuieW

[Snowy L]

At least the ECM pushes the low heights into Southern Europe, something that just completely (and imo wrongly) disappeared on the GFS. Though it looks like the next low pressure pushes everything too far east. Will be a great cold spell for central Europe.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Snowy L

[SMU]

@ Beng 144 Charts 65%

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014010912/ECH1-168.GIF?09-0

 

If you want to see what the curvature of the lines we need to see @ 144 when the front approaches its at 168 just to the East of the UK ( in the north sea) lines bending back SE into the continent.

 

It would be nice to salvage something like the ECM 00z from this with continued jet flow NW SE allowing the Scandi high to remain in situ...

 

S

[cooling climate]

Maybe its just me but the ECM t168 chart looks all wrong. In 24 hours the low drops

directly south 500 miles and files 20mb with no distruption or anything.

Can not see that verifing.

 

Lol at t192 its going northwest. I would expect better from the pub run.

Edited January 9, 2014 by cooling climate

[terrier]

Well it looks to me like all models this evening have backtracked. But if the met office are still going with this easterly next week that's good enough for me. What's happened to mr murrs positivity? It was only last night he said he couldn't see this backtracking. Plenty time for it to change yet Steve keep the faith. It could all look a lot better in the morning