South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 1/1/14 18z ------>

[karlos1983]

But battleground situations can either be soggy or snowy (more often the first) for the South-West, as we're often on the battleground!

 

No fear Joe, plenty of time for Westward correction 

[Joe Levy]

No fear Joe, plenty of time for Westward correction 

I fear nothing! I shall take on the PV and the Azores High by myself! Wish me luck...

[Joe Levy]

IF posted this in the mod discussion: "By Monday, UKMO-GM has snow showers advecting well inland on westerly flow across e.g. W Country, M4 corridor, Wales etc. As I mentioned yesterday, the unusually chilly characteristics of the westerly flow - at least, as currently progged - looks more likely to bear wintry ppn than otherwise might be the norm for late Jan. One to watch...."

[Mapantz]

A fair bit of rain fell here this evening, more than I was expecting, 16.4mm. January total now at 211.8mm.

[otleygas]

IF posted this in the mod discussion: "By Monday, UKMO-GM has snow showers advecting well inland on westerly flow across e.g. W Country, M4 corridor, Wales etc. As I mentioned yesterday, the unusually chilly characteristics of the westerly flow - at least, as currently progged - looks more likely to bear wintry ppn than otherwise might be the norm for late Jan. One to watch...."

One to keep an eye on for sure. Likely to be latgely confined to higher areas I guess though?

[Joe Levy]

One to keep an eye on for sure. Likely to be latgely confined to higher areas I guess though?

That depends. I'd imagine that for settling snow, yes. But with low thicknesses and unusually cold uppers for a westerly, falling snow is certainly feasible. It's a long way away though and much could change in either direction.

[karlos1983]

A fair bit of rain fell here this evening, more than I was expecting, 16.4mm. January total now at 211.8mm.

Only had 8.4mm yesterday, you've over taken me Manpantz I'm now on 211.2mm for January.

[A.J]

morning all, an improving picture today weatherwise after last nights rain.....foggy here at the moment, but hopefully should see some sunshine later on

[Coast]

Here we go again.....

 

Yellow Alert of Rain

24 Jan 2014, 00:05

 

Yellow Alert of Rain

 

 

Valid From: 24 Jan 2014, 00:05

Valid To: 24 Jan 2014, 23:45

Issued at - 21 Jan 2014, 11:22

 

Bands of rain are expected to move eastwards across Cornwall and Devon during Friday. Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 mm are expected over most parts, with 30 to 40 mm possible over some areas, mainly windward coasts and hills. With the ground saturated over much of the region, the public should be aware of the risk of further local flooding and associated disruption.

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/sw_forecast_warnings.html

 

More rain to hit North Devon as weather warning is issued for Friday

 

A weather warning for heavy rain has been issued for North Devon on Friday. The region was battered by rain this morning, but more is set to come at the end of the week.

 

The warning, which is the lowest of its kind, has been issued by the Met Office and will remain in place from 12.05am Friday morning until 11.45pm on Friday evening. Bands of rain are expected to move eastwards and rainfall totals could reach up to 40mm over coasts and hills.

 

As the ground is already saturated there is a risk of localised flooding. A chief forecaster at the agency said: “Active frontal troughs will move eastwards across the UK during Friday, bringing further strong winds and heavy rain to many places. “The combination of very moist air and strong winds will give rainfall accumulations that have the potential for flooding disruption over parts of southwest England where the ground remains saturated.â€

 

 

 

 

http://www.northdevonjournal.co.uk/rain-hit-North-Devon-weather-warning-issued/story-20478368-detail/story.html#ixzz2r7KemsaK

[Nights King]

The rubbish 'winter' continues...

 

Will we see one this year?

[Andy Bown]

Well after 3 more winter like days, largely due to frosty/icy mornings as it still turned very pleasant in the sunshine, today is back to the really spring like conditions with plenty of sunshine, a few drizzly showers and more notably the temperature still rising at 9.7c!

[Mapantz]

Chances of another 50mm of rain in the south west between Friday and Monday? Pretty high I think?! Wettest month I've recorded here since having a station (10 years) and there's still 10 days left, quite extraordinary rainfall amounts, half a years rainfall in under two months. :O

[festivalking]

Chances of another 50mm of rain in the south west between Friday and Monday? Pretty high I think?! Wettest month I've recorded here since having a station (10 years) and there's still 10 days left, quite extraordinary rainfall amounts, half a years rainfall in under two months.

 

How the water meadows on the frome doing at the moment. Heading back to the homeland next weekend!

[ARTDEMOLE]

Yellow warning of rain extended to South of S. Glos/M4 corridor.. Fergie tweet...

 

 

FOR  FRIDAY......

Edited January 22, 2014 by ARTDEMOLE

[Bristawl Si]

 

Yellow warning of rain extended to South of S. Glos/M4 corridor.. Fergie tweet...

For when exactly?

[ARTDEMOLE]

 For when exactly?

edited post  FOR FRIDAY...

Edited January 22, 2014 by ARTDEMOLE

[Evening thunder]

Not posted for a while here, but the monthly total back home is up to 178.4mm according to the Davis, though I do think it could be reading a tad too high. However last Thursday there was a line of heavy showers for a few hours with 21.8mm for the day, and apparently the stream across the lane flooded the road and a few cm into the drive, which hasn't happened before this Autumn/winter. Looking like we could make it over the 200mm mark before months end too.

 

December was wet with 146.2mm though not exceptional. the River Otter flooded parts of the floodplain a few times though only like it does every year or two.

Nothing like last year with 3 major flood events and 2 of them with 4 days when 152mm fell in 6 days. The highest accumulations and worst flooding this time has been further east on the whole. 

 

Yesterday had a min of -2.4c, and the 14th got down to -2.7c. Not very good for them to be the lowest mins in January, but that's colder than anything recorded in January or February last year, which both had absolute lows of a measly -2.4c.

[gottolovethisweather]

An update to my snow-watch post from the other day.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/?p=2903476

Edited January 22, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[littlemissy]

John Hammond on bbc 10.30 weather forecast said wet and windy for all on Sunday ....he didn't look at all comfortable .

 

But tomorrow looks bright -after a wet old night ..........

[A.J]

John Hammond on bbc 10.30 weather forecast said wet and windy for all on Sunday ....he didn't look at all comfortable .

 

But tomorrow looks bright -after a wet old night ..........

It wouldn't suprise me, especially if he uses the same curry house as me, they take about 4 days to go though the digestive tract

[Dorsetbred]

Another good frost this morning, with pavements like skating rinks. Temperature is rising as the rain approaches, so most people will miss the good covering of the frosty stuff this morning.

[Frosty_wsm]

Plenty of excitement in the mod thread this morning I see, mentioning of snow next week looking increasingly likely, if the models are correct that is, question is will us in the south west be able to join in or will the boundary between cold and mild air be hovering over the region somewhere.

[Mapantz]

Plenty of excitement in the mod thread this morning I see, mentioning of snow next week looking increasingly likely, if the models are correct that is, question is will us in the south west be able to join in or will the boundary between cold and mild air be hovering over the region somewhere.

Modified rPm air will definitely bring the threat of squalls, hail and other wintry features but that low sinking south east wouldn't be that great for our region.I'm still not seeing the excitement, unless you live further north, perhaps folks have been so snow starved this season that they're trying to look for any synoptic reason to get excited?I see people on the attack towards Gibby in the MOD thread? What's that all about? Some people need to wind their necks in, he goes out of his way to do that in-depth analysis and someone with 4 posts says he copies the MetOffice forecasts?! The comment should be removed really.Anyway, 7.6C with sunny spells.

[SteveB]

Plenty of excitement in the mod thread this morning I see, mentioning of snow next week looking increasingly likely, if the models are correct that is, question is will us in the south west be able to join in or will the boundary between cold and mild air be hovering over the region somewhere.

 

I would have thought it would have to be a near perfect setup for us to see anything snow wise over in Weston. Maybe a trip to the Mendips or Exmoor might offer some hope, but hear on the coast, its just too mild.

 

Only been below freezing twice this winter so far, and only had a handful of frosts.

[karlos1983]

Modified rPm air will definitely bring the threat of squalls, hail and other wintry features but that low sinking south east wouldn't be that great for our region.

I'm still not seeing the excitement, unless you live further north, perhaps folks have been so snow starved this season that they're trying to look for any synoptic reason to get excited?

I see people on the attack towards Gibby in the MOD thread? What's that all about? Some people need to wind their necks in, he goes out of his way to do that in-depth analysis and someone with 4 posts says he copies the MetOffice forecasts?! The comment should be removed really.

Anyway, 7.6C with sunny spells.

 

Agree Mapantz, Martins assessment imo is pretty good for what the models are showing, just because they don't open the door to Narnia, people get most upset. Ridiculous. I got sucked in last night by some comments and I'm pretty annoyed with myself this morning for taking the bait, but hey we live and learn.