South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 1/1/14 18z ------>

[AWD]

Forgetting about snowfall for a minute, as it's looking rather iffy to say the least for our region still, the EURO4 model is now in full range for Friday's projected rainfall;

Near 12 hours of varying intensity rainfall for a lot of us, only clearing east by Friday afternoon. Totals on their own aren't too alarming, but of course, with current ground conditions, the impact will be all the more noticeable.

Accumulative rainfall by tomorrow evening;

And then we have..............

Eeerk, Sunday!!!!!

Edited January 23, 2014 by AWD

[AWD]

Those looking for winter, well.....

You could always hope the MetCheck in house model is on to something;

[karlos1983]

Those looking for winter, well.....

You could always hope the MetCheck in house model is on to something;

image.jpg

 

Metcheck lol, now that should be put to sleep!

[Mapantz]

Those looking for winter, well.....

You could always hope the MetCheck in house model is on to something;

image.jpg

Lol - I was under the notion that metcheck just have a computer program that converts raw GFS output to viewable data in tables?

For the same period, it's all rain for me!

[Biggin]

Heavy hailstorm here atm

[AWD]

Lol - I was under the notion that metcheck just have a computer program that converts raw GFS output to viewable data in tables?For the same period, it's all rain for me!

That's what I though too but the current GFS modelling shows minimal, if any snow during next week down here, so it must be based on something else?But what???

[Dorsetbred]

Those looking for winter, well.....

You could always hope the MetCheck in house model is on to something;

Hard core drugs maybe

[Gibby]

Modified rPm air will definitely bring the threat of squalls, hail and other wintry features but that low sinking south east wouldn't be that great for our region.

I'm still not seeing the excitement, unless you live further north, perhaps folks have been so snow starved this season that they're trying to look for any synoptic reason to get excited?

I see people on the attack towards Gibby in the MOD thread? What's that all about? Some people need to wind their necks in, he goes out of his way to do that in-depth analysis and someone with 4 posts says he copies the MetOffice forecasts?! The comment should be removed really.

Anyway, 7.6C with sunny spells.

Nah not a problem to me. I can take criticism and I am always the first to admit when I'm wrong and I do get it wrong sometimes but to me the charts this morning didn't look right for snow anywhere other than parts of the North and that is what has been borne out in the updated mid term Met outlook this morning. Mind you that's not to say it won't snow next week here in the SW but my predictions this morning were based on the 00z output and no more. If I feel tonight's 12z offer something more hopeful I will report it. of more concern to me and imo should be within the Mod discussion is the swamp the UK is currently and what it's likely to become in the next week if this morning's charts verify. But as always over there this is glossed over by most in search of a wet blob of snow but hey ho everyone to their own.

Edited January 23, 2014 by Gibby

[Nights King]

Monday says sleet on met office app i think thats best ill see this winter the way it's going.

 

certainly bored to death of all this rain and even more bored of flooding taking up the news every other day.

 

I do however have a good photo of the Somerset lakes which I took out of the plane window last week which i'll post later. 

Edited January 23, 2014 by mullender83

[ARTDEMOLE]

Met Office Amber warning for Areas S.West for Friday And Sunday.. This is not welcome for the Somerset Levels..  

[Andy Bown]

I notice the forecast has also changed somewhat for Saturday with Ian's Points West prediction yesterday evening backed up by this lunchtime's 3 dayer showing Saturday as dull with light rain rather than a drier, brighter, showery day.

 

Quite an interesting sky here this afternoon with clear blue sky to the East and thicker cloud to the West (which due to the wind is moving NW-SE at present) presumably already flowing in ahead of the next system.

 

January is currently at 190.5mm so just 23mm needed to make it my record wettest month - that's a no contest given that the required amount may fall tonight/tomorrow let alone what could come on Sunday!

[dec10snow]

Met Office Amber warning for Areas S.West for Friday And Sunday.. This is not welcome for the Somerset Levels..

The amber warning is actually SOLELY for the levels... Shows you how serious it is there...

[Somerset Squall]

Yep, it's never ending it really is! Been cut off here for 3 weeks now, and with the outlook, it could easily be another 3, but probably even longer than this. Not surprised about the Amber alert for here.

[Dorsetbred]

Been watching a really nice display of Cirrocumulus the last hour, fantastic full sky cover.

[Frosty_wsm]

All the talk in the mod thread about a possible battleground scenario next week yet the one part of the uk that a lot of posters talk about missing out on any possibility of snow is the south west, pffft, anyone got a time machine so I can go back to the 80s when it was often a case of the south west being the part of the county to get hit the worst as the weather systems would barely make it into the uk. These modern day cold blocks just ain't as strong as in the good ol days lol.

[Nights King]

All the talk in the mod thread about a possible battleground scenario next week yet the one part of the uk that a lot of posters talk about missing out on any possibility of snow is the south west, pffft, anyone got a time machine so I can go back to the 80s when it was often a case of the south west being the part of the county to get hit the worst as the weather systems would barely make it into the uk. These modern day cold blocks just ain't as strong as in the good ol days lol.

 

Yes even with improvements tonight we are still well out of the picture for next week 

 

The rainy season continues 

[snip]

The amber warning is actually SOLELY for the levels... Shows you how serious it is there...

10 minutes walk for me, fortunately downhill. 

[somersetsnow]

My Cousin lives in New Jersey and they woke up to 15ins of Snow today………we haven't had 15 bloomin Flakes 

[dancing daisy]

Yep, it's never ending it really is! Been cut off here for 3 weeks now, and with the outlook, it could easily be another 3, but probably even longer than this. Not surprised about the Amber alert for here.

It's still awful isn't it. I stupidly thought things were improving as yesterday i managed to drive through seven bends. Now I have seen a weather forecast I think it's time to rechristen the levels to somerset on sea

[Panayiotis]

You guys must be happy with Ian's comment on the model thread re snow @96hrs! I certainly am! (But low confidence, so not getting my hopes up yet!)

Edited January 23, 2014 by Panayiotis

[BristolBaggie]

Sledges at the ready folks. Please for the 1st time this winter be right.. From Ian F taken from MOD thread

Re Monday - yes, Dep Chief confirming likely easterly movement of wintry ppn into some southern-central areas with time (not expected disruptive for those districts at present), but current E4 PPN discrimination highlights Bristol-M4 corridor; parts of Devon etc at greatest risk of what could be disruptive snow/hail/ice issues (because potentially phasing with AM rush hr). I'm not allowed to copy the high-res charts; sorry... but it's an interesting signal.

Edited by fergieweather, 2 minutes ago.

[Argyle1980]

Bring it on! Need a change down here and things are shifting more to the west each day now.

Stay safe people

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well Iv woke up to wet snow this morning, what a surprise

[Dorsetbred]

Reports of snow on the M62 this morning (I know it's a bit out of our area), so shows there was a snowy leading edge to this.

Meanwhile, down here it's that monotonous stair rod persistent WET rain where you just end up soaked. Even though it had not been raining long large puddles and run off is obvious this morning.

Edited January 24, 2014 by Dorsetbred

[Andy Bown]

Interesting scenario this morning reviewing the radar with the rain band progressing only so far East before now sliding SSE, is that due to the HIGH pressure block?