South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 1/1/14 18z ------>

[George]

Well the Met office update doesnt look all that great for us for snow down here!  UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Jan 2014 to Friday 7 Feb 2014:Unsettled through Wednesday with showers or longer spells of rain, these wintry in the north. Also a risk of easterly gales in the northeast, where it will be feeling cold. Elsewhere, temperatures will be near or just below normal, with a risk of overnight fog and icy patches. Turning less unsettled with sunshine and some showers on Thursday, these perhaps wintry, mainly in the northeast. However, westerly winds are expected to return by the weekend bringing further outbreaks of rain, and perhaps some hill snow to the north. There will also be some drier and brighter weather too, especially in the south and southeast of the country, with the continuing risk of overnight frost and local fog patches. Temperatures mostly rather cold, but near normal at times in the south.Updated: 1210 on Fri 24 Jan 2014

I believe Monday is our best chance of seeing something wintry for here in the S/SW, that met outlook is for wed onwards.

[AWD]

It's too early to forecast snow with any certainty yet, even for the pro's/Met Office. Look at today's rainfall event for example, not as bad as originally forecast for many of us.

Turning colder next week now looks likely, but further detail to that is subject to "Shannon entropy", lol.

I've got a good feeling that some of us will get something next week. The most marginal can often be the most rewarding for this part of the world. I'll wait until the weekend before putting my thoughts across though, need to see if the theme is maintained for a couple more runs yet.

I wouldn't mind a colder but drier feed anyway. Trying to work around Whiteball/Fairwater with half land and half water is getting kinda tiresome now.

Don't forget Sunday in amongst the hype either, that's the main "event" as things stand for our region currently.

Edited January 24, 2014 by AWD

[Frank Trough]

 

Well the Met office update doesnt look all that great for us for snow down here!

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 29 Jan 2014 to Friday 7 Feb 2014:

Unsettled through Wednesday with showers or longer spells of rain, these wintry in the north. Also a risk of easterly gales in the northeast, where it will be feeling cold. Elsewhere, temperatures will be near or just below normal, with a risk of overnight fog and icy patches. Turning less unsettled with sunshine and some showers on Thursday, these perhaps wintry, mainly in the northeast. However, westerly winds are expected to return by the weekend bringing further outbreaks of rain, and perhaps some hill snow to the north. There will also be some drier and brighter weather too, especially in the south and southeast of the country, with the continuing risk of overnight frost and local fog patches. Temperatures mostly rather cold, but near normal at times in the south.

Updated: 1210 on Fri 24 Jan 2014

 

 

I won't be holding my breath waiting for snow to fall in Bournemouth. Cue massive snow disruption for my wedding (in Bomo) next saturday.....

[MPG]

It's too early to forecast snow with any certainty yet, even for the pro's/Met Office. Look at today's rainfall event for example, not as bad as originally forecast for many of us.Turning colder next week now looks likely, but further detail to that is subject to "Shannon entropy", lol.I've got a good feeling that some of us will get something next week. The most marginal can often be the most rewarding for this part of the world. I'll wait until the weekend before putting my thoughts across though, need to see if the theme is maintained for a couple more runs yet.I wouldn't mind a colder but drier feed anyway. Trying to work around Whiteball/Fairwater with half land and half water is getting kinda tiresome now.Don't forget Sunday in amongst the hype either, that's the main "event" as things stand for our region currently.

Sundays rain will be interesting to see if comes off. The rain today went SE in France and not West across the UK.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Hope we get something next week ,,,,else all we'll get from others "told you so".. So Monday or Tuesday had better come up with the goods.... 

[AWD]

Hope we get something next week ,,,,else all we'll get from others "told you so".. So Monday or Tuesday had better come up with the goods....

Personally I think Monday & Tuesday is too soon, I'm thinking more Weds - Sat, but hey ho, what do I know.Obviously, as Ian said earlier, there is a surprise risk for some of us on Monday.

[festivalking]

We could end up being on the wrong side of marginal all week which would not surprise me although we could end up in luck if it is nudged just a little further west and end up with more than the east

 

Previous winters (and i'm sorry i can't back this up with charts) always seemed that the slider would hit the midlands keeping us in rain and M4 north in snow but as days go by the slider slides further south and west.

 

Remember last year and the channel islands getting the mother of all snow storms and we got nought (still get sweats in the night over that).

 

The block always seem stronger than modeled i guess,  so those in the east rubbing their hands could be instead rubbing their eyes in disbelief if the block stands up!

[Nights King]

Personally I think Monday & Tuesday is too soon, I'm thinking more Weds - Sat, but hey ho, what do I know.

Obviously, as Ian said earlier, there is a surprise risk for some of us on Monday.

 

Using the ppn total of the gfs netweather forecast for the period that suggests sleet I have calculated I shall see 5cm of snow Monday morning   If only

 

Lets see what todays runs bring though as we could all end up back to square one again with block less strong.

[Skullzrulerz]

Any 'Snow' For me next week?

[karlos1983]

Like AWD says, I think we need to see a few more runs showing the same theme, or better before we can get excited about the white stuff. One thing for sure, despite what has been put on the Met outlook etc (not that it is negative), there has been no downgrade since this mornings runs as yet, just a bit of anxiety in the forums, perhaps getting mixed messages from over ramping, met outlook and IMBY'ism.

 

Next clue's to be given in the next couple of hours when the 12z roll out.

 

Fascinating stuff and by far our best shot so far this winter for anything seasonal/cold. I wouldn't rule anything out as yet!

Edited January 24, 2014 by karlos1983

[Frosty_wsm]

Hope we get something next week ,,,,else all we'll get from others "told you so".. So Monday or Tuesday had better come up with the goods....

Don't worry about that, one day we'll get one of those classic battleground events that dumps a load of snow in the south west where the front stalls and then we can say" told you so" to others. One just has to look back in the archives to see that the south west has been the place to be in many a classic battle ground scenario between cold and mild.

[Andy Bown]

The rain seems to be getting its act together now with more appearing on the radar almost 'in situ' ready to head E/SE later on.

 

As for snow prospects, while it is possible that some will fall I fear those hoping it lies on the ground for too long may be disappointed because the ground temperature isn't that low so thawing will occur and there isn't a hard frost forecast to lower those temperatures.

[knocker]

Rain ceased for a while but now moderate with 8/8 Ns.

 

Fairly obvious why.

Edited January 24, 2014 by knocker

[AWD]

Any 'Snow' For me next week?

If you can make it up to Bodmin Moor then there is a chance. Watch this space!

[festivalking]

If you can make it up to Bodmin Moor then there is a chance. Watch this space!

 

yes one wonders where the potential snow would be if any at all.

[knocker]

Given that the max temp forecast for Camborne next week is around 9C and looking at the model/charts I would say there is zilch chance of snow in Cornwall even allowing for a lower temp on the moors.

 

[DanDorsetUK]

Well im not even looking to sunday or next week for Snow down here we should be looking at the pattern towards the end of the week, Get the cold in first thats the main thing i think towards the end of next week we will really start to see Winter kicking in for us on the south coast! The BOOM for us wont be long!

[dec10snow]

The rain seems to be getting its act together now with more appearing on the radar almost 'in situ' ready to head E/SE later on. As for snow prospects, while it is possible that some will fall I fear those hoping it lies on the ground for too long may be disappointed because the ground temperature isn't that low so thawing will occur and there isn't a hard frost forecast to lower those temperatures.

To be honest, the way this winter is going, I think many will be happy to just see some snow flakes falling... Settling will be a bonus as well, even if not for long!

[Skullzrulerz]

 

Will be getting something out of this if this happens!!!

[AWD]

 

Will be getting something out of this if this happens!!!

Yeah, bloody wet!

[Frosty_wsm]

Yeah, bloody wet!

Come on you block, push that lp further south west.I noticed Steve in the mod thread mentioning the the jma solution would be snow for all the uk, guess we have to hope it's called the correct solution if your after some wintry weather. Edited January 24, 2014 by Smartie

[Argyle1980]

All in time for the high tides too..... Not good

[festivalking]

David braine ramp alert for spotlight. Suggesting showers turning increasingly wintery on Monday. Not known for over egging forecasts. Looking good for moors on the sw.

[MP-R]

Wouldn't be surprised if there are some surprises on the Mendips and Cotswolds too. 

Edited January 24, 2014 by MP-R

[kumquat]

It's so tricksy getting snow down here. I keep hearing in the MOD thread about March 2013 and it's like WTF???!!!

 

When I look at the archive model output for that period it seems a bit cruel that we missed out (in Bristol environs, anyway). Such cold uppers between March 11th and 13th. It's got a lot to do with luck as much as it's got to do with model output.