Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[echodelta21]

Lol...it's heartening to see the first signs of NIMBYism showing on the forum (whichever wind direction favors the particular poster MUST be the one everybody needs...). Discounting model output, it's a sure sign of something approaching.

On a more on topic note, it's been evident from recent output that anything and everything has been forecast at some point or another. The most important nontechnical thing I can see is that the time frame is slowly getting shorter and the 'tipping point' has been approaching at about the same rate (barring a few wobbles with a potential easterly).

I would be more worried if the same tantalising synoptics were showing at T+168 and remaining there with each successive day of output.

Edited January 18, 2014 by echodelta21

[mike Meehan]

Shows the human input of the chief forecaster, the Met are quite clearly going with the 'block' holding more to our N/NE, that fax chart is pretty nice considering the GFS at the same time. I know this gets said every winter really but there really is an extreme level of uncertainty at the moment and I think the models are going to struggle for the time being, theres lots of complicated PROJECTED weather patterns going on around the NH within the next 10 days or so. Nothing to be overly depressed about, nor excited about but you can tell this thread is full of people frustrated by a rubbish, let down winter so far.

 

Understandable I guess, but I still think something is around the corner with the projected NH pattern we'd be exceptionally unlucky to miss out for the entire winter, chins up chumps.

I suppose it could happen the temps in Scandinavia have cooled quite lot in the last few days as has North West Russia and cold temps are good for building anticyclones, so we may just be in with a chance

[SLEETY]

120 hrs fax chart. fax120s.gif The fat lady has been taken off the stage and locked in her dressing roomuntil further notice. 

wow look how close the cold air gets on that chart,anyone writing off the chances of a cold spell must be on the wind up.

especially as that chart has human input

I think their are going to massive upgrades on the model runs over the next couple of days.

Maybe the ecm control run was the trendsetter all the time.

get your tickets ready folks the Siberian Express maybe on its way very soon

[Blake]

 

Heights building over Greenland possibly merging with HP rising up in the Atlantic, could it be enough to force the LP heading out of Canada elsewhere other than the path most the recent lows have headed?

 

Meanwhile the low to our west comes up against the block to the NE/E, goes under the HP introducing at first a cold blast from the North (see the colder Arctic air pushing down from the north in the two frames above) as the centre of the low sits over Germany before sinking south giving us an Easterly with colder air also heading in from the NE/E with heights extending back across the north.

 

In theory anyway... is this possible from the charts I have added?

 

Also, if I am not mistaken (probably am), look to Greenland here, first signs of an SSW reversing the jet? Would support the colder air coming into the other frames I have posted.

 

 

Thoughts please? Am I on the wrong tracks completely?

 

Still learning, go easy

 

Goodnight

Edited January 18, 2014 by GUWeather

[Panayiotis]

Nice easterly @120hrs on the NASA model!

[legritter]

Shows the human input of the chief forecaster, the Met are quite clearly going with the 'block' holding more to our N/NE, that fax chart is pretty nice considering the GFS at the same time. I know this gets said every winter really but there really is an extreme level of uncertainty at the moment and I think the models are going to struggle for the time being, theres lots of complicated PROJECTED weather patterns going on around the NH within the next 10 days or so. Nothing to be overly depressed about, nor excited about but you can tell this thread is full of people frustrated by a rubbish, let down winter so far.

 

Understandable I guess, but I still think something is around the corner with the projected NH pattern we'd be exceptionally unlucky to miss out for the entire winter, chins up chumps.

yes some very interesting weather is possibly on its way for the n /hemisphere lets hope we can build on current long range output ,bring it on i say ,Stellas all round .

[Biggin]

 

 

 

 

 

Watch this space for further updates - but certainly do not base forecasts on the rest of winter on the ECM 32 dayer - we need to be a little bit more lateral in our thinking I suspect.

Correct chio, useful for perhaps days 1-10ish (in conjunction with other outputs) but thats about as far as I would go.  I currently believe the UKMO output for days 1-5  tho  have been improved on and are getting pretty much spot on in that period (mogreps and glosea4/5) tho. 32 days is beyond FI and into infinity and beyond. The models chopping and changing with each output are why I prefer to observe around the days 1-5 mark.

.

Edited January 18, 2014 by Biggin

[ZONE 51]

CFS looking interesting, quite frustrating seeing what could be but isn't, not yet anyway... going to post a few what I call "best of the CFS" occasionally on here (for cold fans)

 

The cold all Bottled up situation:

this is @ +720 I know further than the GFS FI but if you don't look you won't know what could happen later...

.................................I'm lookin through begging to find a better cold chart to cheer you all up 

 

+816... nope that's the wrong direction...

+840..looks good but would look better over this way more..

+1008.. ermmmmm

 

Not this times ppl but close! time for a coffeee and a snowpill?

 

Only playing to cheer you up after recent posts "I will provide more informative and interesting posts in the future" repeat x 100... 

 

I think what it is we actually can't believe theres no real cold and snow on offer after what was the new ICE AGE  that had set in since something like 2007...

 

(could this post be moved to the other model thread sorry should be there I think)

Edited January 18, 2014 by ElectricSnowStorm

[TSNWK]

I'm thinking that UKMO looks cold and dry around 120 144 preceeded by cold and wet with surely a risk of some snow on higher ground at least.

GFS I would have thought would offer some interest as well at the very least around 120 144 and as for the end of the high res and the whole of low res I have no idea as am still learning and not used to the charts being shown this morning I will leave that to the experts...

In a nutshell I think we have plenty to discuss when people come online.

Happy Saturday

TSNWK

[KyleHenry]

UKMO 0z shows Scandi high put under intense pressure and pushes it SE but it still hangs on and gingerly reforms by 144 hrs. GFS 0z shows the same. All this from the WAA up the west coast of US which keeps the Arctic high 1040 mb directly over the pole. Naturally the PV is split and sends the Canadian vortex towards Greenland. UK takes a hit from NE edge of AH raising temps. GFS 0z shows the jet stream move north of UK, then straight at us. The jet stream pushes the Siberian Lobe far to the east. GFS shows the jet stream dissipate which will allow the coldest temps to back westward again. At a guess seven days to move back into Eastern/ Central Europe for start of Feb. It's then all about the Canadian Lobe, AH and Arctic high pressure. Westward movement of the Canadian lobe is logical after the WAA dissipates. AH to sink and follow lobe west and Arctic high to move South. Bobs your uncle. Greenland high, northerly then blocked easterly= heavy snow for 6th Feb. Going way beyond even FI has no fear for me lol

Or instead send an Atlantic WAA all the way up to the Arctic high like the ECM 0z does at 240 hours. The models are amazing to watch at present

Edited January 18, 2014 by KyleHenry

[That ECM]

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/7280/ECH1-240_dpu4.GIF

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/4054/gfsnh-0-240_vvz5.png

Forget the detail. Look at theme. The PV is looking very different and with so much going on in the NH no one is going to confidently forecast for the end of the month. If we get lucky then we have four plus weeks to enjoy proper weather. Interesting to watch this unfolded.

[TSNWK]

ECM looks similar to the UKMO around 120 and 144 it then goes on to drop energy over the uk from the north west with heights building over the pole and as for 240 chart well as above I don't really know, but you don't see charts like it very often is all I will say..

Think there will be some chat in here this morning.

[The PIT]

ECM swings towards the UKMO solution shown yesterday so a brief spell of very mild weather just outside the reliable time frame before returning to temps either side of normal. So nothing drastically cold in the runs and the hunt for winter proper continues.

GFS possibly the cooler of the runs but no model shows the block moving west.

[KTtom]

Amazing agreement between GFS/ECM at or around day 8 with a lobe of vortex detached from Greenland heading east, the next low leaves Canada on a NE track allowing the Atlantic ridge to head north..

 

ECM:

GFS:

 

ECM goes on to produce this @ day 10....Not a synoptic pattern we are used to this winter!

 

 

Could be a very interesting month February.

Edited January 18, 2014 by KTtom

[TEITS]

Well the peachy charts I have been expecting have arrived.

 

I have been following the Iceland SLP ensembles and note how the operational has much higher pressure than the mean.

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20140118/00/prmslReyjavic.png

 

This has been the case for several runs now and combined with the ECM it illustrates the operationals are what you need to follow. The GEFS ensembles will be playing catch up on this.

 

Back to the ECM/GFS and note how the increasing heights to our N are forcing the LP to track south of the UK. I would be wary of this at the moment because at this range I have seen this before only for the LP to sit across the UK rather than clearing S.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

My overall summary though is very positive. Forget about looking for an E,ly in the nearer timeframe because as you know I have never fancied this occurring. The real action is towards the end of the month when a massive change is going to occur. The combination of the Arctic HP, Scandi HP, lack of LP tracking across the Atlantic, bitter airmass moving S from the pole, will provide some very exciting model watching days ahead of us.

 

However this pans out for us there is no doubt a change from the weather pattern we have seen so far this winter is going to occur.

[MR EXTREMES]

steve murr you were pretty close you said 168 hrs tetis yep this is much much better. from the ecm.

 

ukmo has the block still there to but not as close as yesterday but if it were to go futher out then it would be close im sure its game on this morning as has been said its a waiting game feb is a common month for northern blocking and has been for the last few or more winters.

 

ukmo at least is dry and frost will feature in the forecast across England mostly.

the gfs I wont even post charts as was suggested by nick sussex yesterday it is the model that is repeatedly dropped by noaa.

 

I think the ecm ukmo.

Edited January 18, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[Frosty.]

It could be a Beast from the North East instead of the East then teits

Edited January 18, 2014 by Frosty.

[MR EXTREMES]

and look at the strength of blocking I cant see why the models would suggest such high mb values of heights if there was no strong support for it,

and this chart from the ecm is the very reason why the ao is expected to tank into negative values.

 

 

for the first time this winter the ao has broad agreement yes there a few that go positive but just look at the range of negative values could get close to a record lows if I remember rightly 09/10 winter had some impressive neg ao this could beat this.

It could be a Beast from the North East instead of the East then teits

I think nw the north then ne and east is very possible indeed.

the arctic blocking has moved forwards to since yesterday long may this continue.

 

and the fax charts that were posted last night shows that the heights to our northeast are not going nowhere fast and its angle on the fax shows that its so finely balanced that a cold easterly is still up for grabs 1 low pressure moving more south east than shown and its game on it is that finely balanced.

Edited January 18, 2014 by emotional rollercoaster

[bluearmy]

although we see some decent x model agreement on the broad lw pattern at various stages, the range of possible scenarios into 10/15 day period are likely massive re what surface conditions our little bit of nw Europe receives.

I suspect Shannon is still very busy. one hopes the arctic high will garner enough ens support to reduce the variation soon. The Canadian vortex - with that huge split, one would expect it to weaken somewhat. I wonder if that will become a trend if the split begins to seem odds on to verify. Note the monster storm on yesterday's ECM op at day 10 dives south this morning as a less intense feature. that's what the control run did with it on yesterday's 12z ECM.

Edited January 18, 2014 by bluearmy

[Man With Beard]

An example this morning of how the Azores High might link with the Scandi High in a less favourable way for cold - on UKMO at T144, it will allow a slow sinking of milder air over the top. If the link could happen slightly further north and over the top of a bigger area of low pressure, it could actually pull more of an easterly into the SE - still possible for that to happen.

[nick sussex]

Isn't that typical, as soon as the GFS moves the pattern west, the Euros take it east!

 

The earlier disagreements are probably just a different route to pretty much the same later output, of the big 3 the UKMO falls into the underwhelmed at T144hrs because its flattest and has more energy spilling east, although any easterly would be a shortish affair this could still help later if the GFS was by a miracle correct because if pressure hangs on to the ne this could help sharpen the low which moves in ahead of the displaced Azores high.

 

The interesting later output is still along way away and to get a low to drop south like that is a very unusual set up,phasing worries upstream continue to haunt proceedings and will the Arctic high be as strong and verify like that, if fortunes do change and we see the ECM verify then that would suggest a cold spell rather than snap but thats for another day.

[chionomaniac]

End result of the ECM today is probably what those who thought laterally, envisaged yesterday evening. We have three possible height sources around day 10 - the Azores ridging northwards, the Arctic high and the Scandi high. The relative strength of each and how they interact will determine whether we will hit a cold bonanza or not. For the first time this winter we at least have bought a ticket for the lottery.

Edited January 18, 2014 by chionomaniac

[forecaster]

Just looking at the various MJO forecasts, a fair agreement to go into fairly high amplitude phase 6/7. That suggests to me the Azores is going to get involved in proceedings and certainly shows where recent GFS runs has been getting the bullish Atlantic ridging from later on in FI. Shame then that there is a tendancy thereafter to recurve back into the circle of nothingness instead of building into phase 8. Plenty of times for change here yet though.

 

MJO active in the W Pacific during northern winter increases chances of negative NAO occurring 10-20 days later when compared with climatology.

[Captain Shortwave]

Oh how life would be so much easier if that Scandi high actually did something useful and help drive a colder pattern instead of just sitting there sinking/re-amplifying in a continuous loop.

I'm going to admit I'm nervous about requiring a full blown Atlantic ridge to get the job done and also whilst some may discredit the GEFs, the fact remains that yesterday they were showing a clear Arctic high which is clearly not there today. Maybe they went off on one (wouldn't be the first time), but like the whole winter so far it seems the the strength of any ridging from the mid-latitudes to the pole will once again come under close scrutiny.

Whilst some may see chasing an easterly in the earlier timeframe, well I beg to differ, yeah it might not be frigid but it improves our starting position when (I guess I must use "if" too) the tropospheric vortex splits.

[nick sussex]

Oh how life would be so much easier if that Scandi high actually did something useful and help drive a colder pattern instead of just sitting there sinking/re-amplifying in a continuous loop.

I'm going to admit I'm nervous about requiring a full blown Atlantic ridge to get the job done and also whilst some may discredit the GEFs, the fact remains that yesterday they were showing a clear Arctic high which is clearly not there today. Maybe they went off on one (wouldn't be the first time), but like the whole winter so far it seems the the strength of any ridging from the mid-latitudes to the pole will once again come under close scrutiny.

Whilst some may see chasing an easterly in the earlier timeframe, well I beg to differ, yeah it might not be frigid but it improves our starting position when (I guess I must use "if" too) the tropospheric vortex splits.

Yes I agree, the easterly or even just more favourable trough disruption could make a difference later, you can see the ECM postage stamps still have different solutions but even if we miss the easterly its important some energy goes se rather than just ne like the UKMO.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014010912!!/

 

There does still seem a lot of volatility with the strength of the block to the east ,overall today the UKMO goes from champ to chump, although this does seem to be a repeating pattern of the last few days, flatter in the morning, and more amplified in the evening.

 

The ECM mean at T240hrs highlights our concerns re needing that amplified ridge, phasing upstream and the PV just gets that tug east, its obvious from the ECM mean that there are a huge split in solutions.