Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[Catacol]

surely those charts are from NOAA?

and sure, if they link, we could have a spell of some decent winter cold. As ever, time will tell!

 

Yes - apologies. NOAA runs on the CPC website. Got myself confused with CFS too! I find that site a quagmire... Have amended my initial post..

Edited January 18, 2014 by Catacol_Highlander

[winterof79]

Yes exactly - its the fact that a pattern change is increasingly looking like coming at last that matters here. As ever its broad trends that matter rather than worrying over intra output details. The details take care of themselves over periods of days at a time - its the direction of travel of the overall pattern trend that matters each day.

 

I've been saying for a little while now as these changes approach, that in relative terms against the background of such a hostile vortex driven pattern, we should be impressed at the changes we have been seeing since the first week of January - as slow and frustrating as it has seemed wrt the heights to the NE and the refusal for energy to disrupt completely.

 

However we cannot really have expected this to happen at the surface with an upper trough to the NW as an attachment of the Canadian vortex.

 

Many zonal winters of this intensity simply do not show pattern changes in the offing as soon as the mid january-ish period as are now being highlighted by the anomaly and some surface synoptic charts.  Expectations, realistically of this winter have been that opportunities for cold weather would always be loaded towards the final third - so on this basis we should be pleased at seeing encouraging pattern changes already around the half way point.

 

As others have posted, there is a likelihood the MJO signal will support the Azores High being involved and at this stage route 2 to cold through the back door via an amplified atlantic ridge is the most realistic option to hope for (if we are going to land a cold pattern).

 

There is little point in fretting about the complexities however of how this might play out at this time. The 'noise' in the ensembles and mass of solutions further out is completely to be expected and imo to be welcomed. It would be odd and unrealistic to see a linear signal reflecting a clean outpouring of cold from the arctic to our latitude against the background of a messy vortex break up, which continues as work in progress.   This winter has seen complete lack of uncertainty till the last week or two and a further increase in this I would take as a good signal that even if the remainder of January was to remain elusive for cold, further programmed wave activity to follow incrementally will increase our chances into Feb.

 

Indeed this for me has always been our best time for things to fall in place - so on my own timescale of expectations anything that happens sooner continues to be an enjoyable bonus

 

In the meantime the Canadian vortex is and continues to be the spoiler. It is the disruption of this that holds the key to removing sufficient energy out of the atlantic pattern to allow the arctic High, the Scandi High and, hopefully, an amplified Azores ridge to do their work. At least we have seen operational and some ensemble maps suggest that a favourable interaction of these is possible. That is progress indeed from the predictable never ending atlantic tramlines of recent weeks.

 

An immediate connection via route one arctic high and Scandinavian High would of course be the fastest and coldest option, but realistically imo it is unlikely until further westerly energy is removed from the hemispheric pattern. The demise of the Canadian vortex looks to be a systematic one based on repeated wave activity attacks.

 

However, within the context of this very poor winter so far then the route 2 option, which I know I suggested from a week or so back could well come into radar range as a possible pattern evolution, and now has done so, is quite a feasible outcome, and should be welcomed wholeheartedly as a possibility. The arctic High has much greater chances to influence our parish after atlantic amplification, rather than before it.

 

Lets see how this plays out though and let details along the way take care of themselves

Another cracking informative post relating to the overiding signals that need patience.Iam afraid that no matter what evidence is put before some on this forum,they will still refuse to acknowledge it.Thanks Tamara,it is enthralling to watch unfold,if a tad frustrating.

[winterof79]

So no talk ref Northern blocking from the meto, I wonder if the last few days runs are going to disappear and we just keep the relentless westerlies going.I was hoping meto might start talking of blocking this weekend!!!

I cannot recall them referring to blocking in the past I could be wrong on that.

[nick sussex]

I cannot recall them referring to blocking in the past I could be wrong on that.

Yes they won't refer to it in those forecasts as most of the general public wouldn't have a clue what they're on about. The signal is however strong and is expected to be the strongest positive anomaly going by NCEP.

 

I don't think the issue is whether we'll see that Arctic high but whether the upstream pattern will play ball, I'm a bit more optimistic now that the MJO has finally finished its vacation and is on the move.

[draztik]

Yes - apologies. NOAA runs on the CPC website. Got myself confused with CFS too! I find that site a quagmire... Have amended my initial post..

 

Agreed! it is a treasure trove of information, but there are booby-traps trying to get there!!

 

Incidentally, here is the CFS Ensemble take on week 1 & 2

 

so even the CFS is seeing an opportunity, but doesn't see any link. Indeed, it's week 3 and 4 forecast shows what happens if they don't link, back to cool zonal. As some have said, this is the moment that could define February

Edited January 18, 2014 by draztik

[Gaz1985]

Looking cool and zonal on the Manchester ens, but to be honest no deep cold showing or anything very unusual.

 

I won't come off the fence on anything other than zonal until the Met Office come on board with an update like we've seen in previous years >>>"There are signs of the weather turning colder and drier later in the period with temperatures below average if not well below average and the increasing chance of snow across northern and eastern areas but not exclusively so"

 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Gaz1985

[492]

Pressure rising slightly over and to the NE of UK with biggest falls over the western Med as the low slips SSE as modelled. This should cause some backing of the flow over the continent.

 

  http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

[UV-RAY]

Got to pick you up on this. The Met cannot say anything else at present because the models are not consistently picking up on a change - and unfortunately in some respects the Met seem unwilling to break away from model forecasts much at all. Modified fax charts are about as far as they are prepared to go in publicly challenging their model runs. But wiser heads that are a bit brighter than the models are seeing something else happening - and evidence is out there if you care to look, especially in the Strat and MJO forecasts. If predicting the weather was simply a case of reading the medium and long range model forecasts then not only would we have a different forecast every day, but we would be wrong time after time.  And the chances are certainly not "receding". Absolutely without question they are increasing. However... none of us can say the cold weather WILL come. Last December;s failed Easterly which pretty much fooled everybody including the Met is a powerful reminder of this. So we must sit and wait and play the game of chance... but the chances of ice and snow into February are a damned sight higher than at any point so far through December or January. Chio deserves enormous credit for picking up on this back in November and going public in a big way on it via the official NetW forecast. Pretty good to be honest so far... because GP was one hell of an act to follow.

This may well be the case but I was referring to timings and if the MetO have called it right then that will take us to the 14th February, which would give us two more weeks of winter. On the Strat and MJO front we still need to see other variables play ball with us. So yes there is a window of opportunity within the next two weeks, but at this moment in time that's all it is, opportunity.

[blitzen]

Was doing some browsing and came across this: If this assumption is correct, would that then possibly work in our favour or against?43m

Believe GFS having speed/feedback problem in 8-10 so is shunting major cold shot out too fast. We believe ECWMF (l) pic.twitter.com/UKgpcx9ilz

 

[mcweather]

Yes exactly - its the fact that a pattern change is increasingly looking like coming at last that matters here. As ever its broad trends that matter rather than worrying over intra output details. The details take care of themselves over periods of days at a time - its the direction of travel of the overall pattern trend that matters each day.

 

I've been saying for a little while now as these changes approach, that in relative terms against the background of such a hostile vortex driven pattern, we should be impressed at the changes we have been seeing since the first week of January - as slow and frustrating as it has seemed wrt the heights to the NE and the refusal for energy to disrupt completely.

 

However we cannot really have expected this to happen at the surface with an upper trough to the NW as an attachment of the Canadian vortex.

 

Many zonal winters of this intensity simply do not show pattern changes in the offing as soon as the mid january-ish period as are now being highlighted by the anomaly and some surface synoptic charts.  Expectations, realistically of this winter have been that opportunities for cold weather would always be loaded towards the final third - so on this basis we should be pleased at seeing encouraging pattern changes already around the half way point.

 

As others have posted, there is a likelihood the MJO signal will support the Azores High being involved and at this stage route 2 to cold through the back door via an amplified atlantic ridge is the most realistic option to hope for (if we are going to land a cold pattern).

 

There is little point in fretting about the complexities however of how this might play out at this time. The 'noise' in the ensembles and mass of solutions further out is completely to be expected and imo to be welcomed. It would be odd and unrealistic to see a linear signal reflecting a clean outpouring of cold from the arctic to our latitude against the background of a messy vortex break up, which continues as work in progress.   This winter has seen complete lack of uncertainty till the last week or two and a further increase in this I would take as a good signal that even if the remainder of January was to remain elusive for cold, further programmed wave activity to follow incrementally will increase our chances into Feb.

 

Indeed this for me has always been our best time for things to fall in place - so on my own timescale of expectations anything that happens sooner continues to be an enjoyable bonus

 

In the meantime the Canadian vortex is and continues to be the spoiler. It is the disruption of this that holds the key to removing sufficient energy out of the atlantic pattern to allow the arctic High, the Scandi High and, hopefully, an amplified Azores ridge to do their work. At least we have seen operational and some ensemble maps suggest that a favourable interaction of these is possible. That is progress indeed from the predictable never ending atlantic tramlines of recent weeks.

 

An immediate connection via route one arctic high and Scandinavian High would of course be the fastest and coldest option, but realistically imo it is unlikely until further westerly energy is removed from the hemispheric pattern. The demise of the Canadian vortex looks to be a systematic one based on repeated wave activity attacks.

 

However, within the context of this very poor winter so far then the route 2 option, which I know I suggested from a week or so back could well come into radar range as a possible pattern evolution, and now has done so, is quite a feasible outcome, and should be welcomed wholeheartedly as a possibility. The arctic High has much greater chances to influence our parish after atlantic amplification, rather than before it.

 

Lets see how this plays out though and let details along the way take care of themselves

 

As usual yet another brilliant and well thought out post Tamara.   Are you sure you're not GP in disguise. There is no doubt that patience is the watchword this winter for coldies/snowies.  However I do think that patience will be rewarded.

Edited January 18, 2014 by mcweather

[Polar Maritime]

As usual yet another brilliant and well thought out post Tamara.   Are you sure you're not GP in disguise.  There is no doubt that patience is the watchword this winter for coldies/snowies.  However I do think that patience will be rewarded.

 

Not unless GP has taken up cross dressing...

Edited January 18, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

 

Was doing some browsing and came across this: If this assumption is correct, would that then possibly work in our favour or against?43m

Believe GFS having speed/feedback problem in 8-10 so is shunting major cold shot out too fast. We believe ECWMF (l) pic.twitter.com/UKgpcx9ilz

 

 

 

As you probably know I use these every day year in year out along with the 6-10 and 8-14 NOAA outputs. Whenever someone feels that any model, these or any other, are not showing what they hope them to show, we read these type of posts.

Until something comes out from NOAA/GFS to say there is a problem then do as I do and ignore these comments. To me they seem not much different from the last 3-4 days, yes some differences between EC and GFS but it is rare that there are not some differences. I see nothing to suggest that there is a problem.

 

just noticed that your link was our well loved US meteorologist JB, treat it as I suggested.

Edited January 18, 2014 by johnholmes

[bluearmy]

As you probably know I use these every day year in year out along with the 6-10 and 8-14 NOAA outputs. Whenever someone feels that any model, these or any other, are not showing what they hope them to show, we read these type of posts.

Until something comes out from NOAA/GFS to say there is a problem then do as I do and ignore these comments. To me they seem not much different from the last 3-4 days, yes some differences between EC and GFS but it is rare that there are not some differences. I see nothing to suggest that there is a problem.

 

just noticed that your link was our well loved US meteorologist JB, treat it as I suggested.

 

tbf to joe, since i subscribed to weatherbell, i've been impressed with his reading of the situation over the states.  he doesnt seem to pay much attention to europe other than a comment when he sees a chart showing cold for us.  sadly, it takes more than a passing interest in a region to make you reliable.  mind you, why should he care about somewhere thousands of miles downstream !!

[cooling climate]

This notion of a Canadian vortex = mild UK is a misnomer you only have

to look through the archives to see some of our best and severest cold

spells (east and northeasterlies)with a Canadian or Bafin Island vortex

in place. The big difference is northern HLB's if we get the amplificat

ion to the north or northeast then our chances are greatly increased of

some proper cold and wintry weather regardless of the vortex to the NW.

With the vortices under constant pressure from wave 1 and 2(strat warming)

the MJO going into phase 7 will give amplitude needed to finally get

some proper blocking into the Arctic.From there it is a question of luck

really as to how the cards fall my bet would be brief northerly type then

before becoming more northeasterly/easterly.

The big pattern changer for me though is the warming being projected by

the GFS strat charts from t240 onwards which is still out of range of the

ECM at the moment. If the warming that the GFS is showing is anywhere near

correct (it has been showing pretty consistently for nearly a week now)then

a fantastic few weeks into February and March could await.

[Mucka]

Things still in the balance today (they usually are ) with some mixed output but some signals are fairly clear, they just work against each other and of course the luck/skill is determining what emphasis to give to each.

 

The first signal is for a Scandinavian block to remain in place until at least day 5/6 while the second is for pressure to rise over the Arctic and possibly begin to influence proceedings from around day 6/7.

Those are the strong signals that may have a positive feedback regarding our chances of pulling in colder air later but there is also a strong signal for the jet to fire up and start to push further North and revisit the UK after its current sojourn to SW Europe, this will begin to happen around day 4 but we will have a little lag time before that manifests as low pressure barrelling across the Atlantic on a more Northerly track and with a little more potency than we have seen of late (around day 6)

The final signal is for a more amplified pattern upstream but this is a weaker signal and somewhat reliant on how things develop downstream regarding the three clearer signals I have outlined above.

 

You will have noticed how the two positive signals for blocking and the signal for for more energy to head NE and kill it off all overlap to a certain degree (days 5 through 7) so my belief is that we are in a race against time here to get blocking in place before day 6/7. If that does not happen I can see some very uninspiring charts appearing again for FI, largely Atlantic dominated though if this happens there will still be a chance of height rises to the NW but we are talking February here. 

 

We desperately need to see the Scandinavian high to hold on so that we can see it link up with high pressure building across the Arctic as only these combined forces will be enough to hold back a renewed Atlantic surge and force an undercut of low pressure into Europe. (day 7/8+)

If this happens the currently weak signal for something more amplified upstream (to our West) should become much stronger and indeed from there we would be very unfortunate not to see some proper winter weather at last. (around day 10+)

There is an outside chance of seeing a bit of wintriness prior to any cold spell proper from a brief continental flow as shown by GFS 00z but it seems unlikely any low lying areas away from the far North will see snow falling and accumulating even briefly within the next 8 to 10 days. We would need to see some large improvements in the output for that to happen, namely much more energy heading SE under our Scandi block than is currently being modelled.

 

UKMO carries on from where it left off last night with far too much energy leaking NE and pushing between the Scandinavian and Arctic high pressure with the jet poorly aligned and it would take a diving low with a very amplified pattern upstream to recover the situation from its 144 chart. (unlikely given its projected jet profile)

 

ECM is somewhat better, though certainly far from ideal, in this regard and we can see that it is more amplified upstream at 144 than UKMO with energy still directed SE rather than NE a la UKMO.

GFS 00z is the best regarding the strength and alignment of the Scandi high and although it too allows too much energy to escape NE than we would like it is also crucially still directing energy SE upstream like the ECM.

 

A blend of GFS 00z downstream and ECM 00z upstream would be our best shot. If the UKMO verifies we would need to pull a rare rabbit out of the hat upstream.

 

Can the troops hold the fort long enough? (Scandi high)

Can the cavalry arrive in time? (Arctic high)

Keep watching. 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Mucka

[shaky]

12zs running!!hopefully we see a bit more undercutting and a westward movement of the scandi high!!

[Weathizard]

Scandi high stronger but in a worse position further east at 120hrs, wretchid Azores high and troughing to the north west causing us problems, as usual. Monster pacific ridging though, I expect some fireworks as the models get to grips with its effect & the polar high also, models will struggle for a while yet I'm feeling, would like to see some decent ENS starting to appear though.

 

Ian, any news on the MOGREPS suite? Thanks.

Edited January 18, 2014 by Weathizard

[Mucka]

UKMO is an improvement this evening on last nights and this mornings run in that it pushes more energy SE

 

UKMO today/yesterday 120h comparisons.

 

 

[shaky]

UKMO is an improvement this evening on last nights and this mornings run in that it pushes more energy SE

 

UKMO today/yesterday 120h comparisons.

 

 

yup a defo improvement which is what I wanted to see!!also I think there is a real chance of frontal snowfall betweeen 72 and 96 hours on the ukmo!!uppers below zero and a very slack flow and maybe cold at the surface!!very interesting!!

[terrier]

Scandinavia high further east on this run. Think the Azores high is going to scupper our chances here.

[Mucka]

UKMO 144 certainly an improvement on recent output but is it enough?

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Scandinavia high further east on this run. 

 

In the hi res I think we need to look for building blocks - the easterly is a non starter. Pressure rises over the pole is what we need with the Canadian vortex weakening and shifting further west.

[cooling climate]

GFS t186 nicely poised are we going to see a GFS special

this afternoon I wonder fingers crossed could be first one

of the season.

[Suburban Streamer]

GFS t186 nicely poised are we going to see a GFS specialthis afternoon I wonder fingers crossed could be first oneof the season.

yeah we wanted more energy going SE, so the gfs sends a hurricane lol

Edited January 18, 2014 by Suburban Streamer

[legritter]

Hi Gang ,well i have sort of put any cold spell snap etc to hopefully appear around 10 days time ,hopefully by then pressure over the pole will be pushing towards us .you can see this gradually taking shape on some of the far outlook charts etc .but i do find it so frustrating that all mouthwatering charts appear to be always the last few frames .well winter as so far pulled of a major weather event around our shores this last 6 weeks or so ,so not boring mild mush but very lively mild mushy .we need v cold snowy mush me old mush so come on Models lets start seeing those mega frames at 120/144 hrs and get a move on ,PLEASE .