Model Output Discussion - 10th Jan Onwards

[shaky]

I dont think this easterly is dead and buried just yet!!especially with the gfs swinging west quie a bit!!lets see what the evening output brings!!itd clearly to see though that this scandi high could bring a few surprises in the next five days or so!!maybe even some snowfall across england early to mind next week!!

[bobbydog]

End result of the ECM today is probably what those who thought laterally, envisaged yesterday evening. We have three possible height sources around day 10 - the Azores ridging northwards, the Arctic high and the Scandi high. The relative strength of each and how they interact will determine whether we will hit a cold bonanza or not. For the first time this winter we at least have bought a ticket for the lottery.

 

just to illustrate what you are saying-

 

 

unusually, the GFS is showing an uncannily similar picture, even at that range! -

 

[UV-RAY]

I'm not so sure we'll see any heights over the Arctic influencing our little corner of the world, all eyes on the Azores high for me whilst which won't bring any bitter air masses this way at least it will settle things down nicely with frost becoming more widespread with time.

[bluearmy]

its obvious from the ECM mean that there are a huge split in solutions.

 

was just going to state the same thing, after looking through the means of ecm, gem and gefs. (plus the members on the latter).  was rather hoping for a consolidation of the arctic high on ecm. instead, we have the mean less bullish than yesterdays runs which lends more credence to the pattern remaining mobile though with colder uppers into the mix coupled with a bit more atlantic amplification. not greatly pleased to see this mobility gaining momentum, given that the apparent 'thou shall not pass to the east of the uk'  forcefield appears to be crumbling. we would then be several steps backward again with an arctic high (as we were some time ago) and waiting to see what it might do this time to try and bring a colder pattern to our shores.  the general theme would appear to me to be that the upstream amplification over the states will not hold for long enough to allow the atlantic to ridge far enough north to engage the arctic heights. too much pressure from the canadian vortex as it keeps doing little laps between husdsons and ne canada, each time depositing a new plunge of cold into the us interior but throwing out another pulse of jet streak into the north atlantic with our name on it. 

 

bit downbeat but thats what i'm seeing.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Well i guess no-one really knows how this is going to all pan out-incredible uncertainty moving forward.

We are painfully close to an Easterly in the reliable but in the longer term there is still a signal for Atlantic retrogression.

Very difficult to know where we are heading now...

[Long haul to mild]

GFS and ECM operationals still look promising for about 10 days time, with Arctic heights linking with the Azores High and allowing LP to move cleanly SE through the UK.

 

However, GEM at T240 this morning shows what could happen if the Highs don't link up and LPs phase together in the North Atlantic :

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011800/gem-0-234.png?00

 

Fascinating period for model watching coming up I feel.

Edited January 18, 2014 by Chalk Serpent

[Gibby]

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday January 18th 2014 raised from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm.

 

All models show the changeable pattern continuing. Through today a frontal system lies over northern and Western Britain with outbreaks of rain on a Southerly breeze. This front moves East later with a slack area of winds moving in tonight and tomorrow with a lot of dry weather over the Uk but with some shwers near western coasts. A similar day on Monday is followed by freshening Southerly winds as another trough moves slowly East with another spell of rain moves slowly East across the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday becoming slow moving in the East before dying out. Then after midweek pressure rises strongly over the UK with a day or perhaps two of dry and bright weather with some frost and fog by night.

 

GFS then shows a quick return of changeable and windy weather with rain at times as Low pressure once more drives SE down across the UK with strong winds at times. In addition it could become rather colder with time with more of the precipitation falling as sleet or snow at times later in the period as winds turn towards the NE temporarily.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a very ordinary set overall with rain at times across the UK with temperatures never more than a degree or so from the seasonal average in blustery conditions at times. The group show no real sign of significant cold conditions within this period with the operational run being on the colder side of the pack later.

 

UKMO today shows a ridge of High pressure extending NE across Southern Britain with next Thursday dry and bright in the South. In the North a milder SW flow will bring cloud and rain in off the Atlantic later in the day.

 

GEM keeps a strong Azores High pressure area late in it's run and although each ridge that crosses the UK from it is relatively short-lived with rain at times, amounts of rain would be considerably less than many Southern areas have seen of late with temperatures alternating between milder spells and chillier spells as each ridge passes.

 

NAVGEM is not dissimilar to GEM as far as it goes with the ridge after midweek followed by a rain bearing troughs sinking SE across the UK by next weekend.

 

ECM shows a quick change back to unsettled and windy weather later next week and weekend as Low pressure follows the midweek ridge down over the UK with rain and strong winds followed by showers before a rinse and repeat pattern occurs again towards the end of the run. The last frame of the run shows Northern blocking setting up strongly giving our best chance yet of breaking out of the wet spell as cold Easterly winds look very likely to take hold.

 

The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts still don't support the evolution of the operational indicating there is still a majority of mebers wanting to keep Low pressure to the NW with troughing lying SE down the UK or the North sea meaning further rain at times for the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow maintained as it is for the time being maintained South of the UK having crossed the Atlantic before turning South to our West. The flow strengthens later and with this extra invigoration there could be more powerful depressions developing increasing the threat of wind to add to the continuing rain risk.

 

In Summary today the weather looks well agreed upon as we move towards the midweek period with changeable conditions  continuing with rain at times and some drier spells too especially after midweek when all models support a drier interlude as the Azores High ridges in. Later developments over the Arctic shown by some models push deep depressions SE across the UK later with further wet and windy weather for all. Then 'as' and 'if' these depressions are allowed to track South of the UK the Arctic High could push South and set up our only real chance of yet this winter (imo) of cold and possibly wintry conditions to start February. The problem being as of yet it is not well supported by either of the ensemble data I have access too from GFS or ECM.

[nick sussex]

was just going to state the same thing, after looking through the means of ecm, gem and gefs. (plus the members on the latter).  was rather hoping for a consolidation of the arctic high on ecm. instead, we have the mean less bullish than yesterdays runs which lends more credence to the pattern remaining mobile though with colder uppers into the mix coupled with a bit more atlantic amplification. not greatly pleased to see this mobility gaining momentum, given that the apparent 'thou shall not pass to the east of the uk'  forcefield appears to be crumbling. we would then be several steps backward again with an arctic high (as we were some time ago) and waiting to see what it might do this time to try and bring a colder pattern to our shores.  the general theme would appear to me to be that the upstream amplification over the states will not hold for long enough to allow the atlantic to ridge far enough north to engage the arctic heights. too much pressure from the canadian vortex as it keeps doing little laps between husdsons and ne canada, each time depositing a new plunge of cold into the us interior but throwing out another pulse of jet streak into the north atlantic with our name on it. 

 

bit downbeat but thats what i'm seeing.

We can only hope that the operational ECM might finally pick a colder solution that actually verifies this winter! NCEP did say a few days back that they expected the eastern USA troughing to amplify later on, hopefully thats still the case.

Edited January 18, 2014 by nick sussex

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

GFS and ECM operationals still look promising for about 10 days time, with Arctic heights linking with the Azores High and allowing LP to move cleanly SE through the UK.

 

However, GEM at T240 this morning shows what could happen if the Highs don't link up and LPs phase together in the North Atlantic :

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014011800/gem-0-234.png?00

 

Fascinating period for model watching coming up I feel.

Yes,GEM shows what will happen if things don't go our way.

And judging by the ECM mean there are a fair number of ECM members which look very much like the GEM 0z op.

As i said,uncertainty reigns.

[Purga]

Interesting FI charts to be sure but the ENS only show slightly below average conditions and unsettled all the way.

 

The Op was one of the coldest members at the end and there are as many very mild runs as cold ones so uncertainty remains.

Edited January 18, 2014 by Purga

[johnholmes]

link below to the 500mb anoly charts from EC-GFS this morning

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

for those looking/wanting a cold block then there are tentative signs, regardless of the post from Purga above, of this showing some signs of developing. It is far from clear let alone a done deal but for sure the pattern will change looking at the 3 main anomaly charts. Just how though is still far from clear but for coldies the first tentative signs seem to be appearing on the anomaly charts. They are highly unusual, I have never seen charts like they currently show in over 4 years of intensive watching them every day.

I keep saying, interesting, but it really is, well to me, whatever follows.

Edited January 18, 2014 by johnholmes

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

reading  posts  above reg the  the prospects of the white stuff possible one day   Jan  27, all i can see is look west  for more  rain, floods even deep into fantasy world  no let  up in  sight

[bobbydog]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

reading  posts  above reg the  the prospects of the white stuff possible one day   Jan  27, all i can see is look west  for more  rain, floods even deep into fantasy world  no let  up in  sight

 

have another look at those precipitation charts bill. "fantasy world" is showing snow all the way for much of europe and often for the UK

[Summer Sun]

Latest GFS 8 day temperature anomaly shows the UK starting to become cooler

 

 

Normal temps left, expected temps right

 

[UV-RAY]

Latest GFS 8 day temperature anomaly shows the UK starting to become cooler

 

 

Normal temps left, expected temps right

 

These charts yo yo daily SS, tomorrow they'll be showing the majority of the UK being above average.

[Polar Maritime]

have another look at those precipitation charts bill. "fantasy world" is showing snow all the way for much of europe and often for the UK

 

Yes Bobby, A cold N/W flow bringing snowfalls  across the UK during the last week of Jan.

 

Edited January 18, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[karlos1983]

Latest GFS 8 day temperature anomaly shows the UK starting to become cooler

Is that a Ramp SS......... :-),Anyone who feared winter wasn't coming, well don't worry, I presume the "polar" opposite of the latest Express headlines will now soon be upon us, no pun intended.....

Edited January 18, 2014 by karlos1983

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

My word, if that ECM comes off, then that massive ice block over Siberia could well be heading in this direction!

[TEITS]

They are highly unusual, I have never seen charts like they currently show in over 4 years of intensive watching them every day.

I keep saying, interesting, but it really is, well to me, whatever follows.

 

 

 

I agree John and without being rude to any members I feel some are missing the bigger picture in their quest for a snowflake. The pattern WILL change but for the moment we have no idea how this will pan out for the UK. However for a cold spell in the UK you need the ingredients and so far this winter we haven't had any. This isn't the case based on the output and we just need them to come together.

 

If I come off the fence my instincts are telling me we are in for a superb cold spell beginning end of Jan with a N,ly with this cold spell reaching its peak via an E,ly around the end of the first week of Feb. I would expect this to continue as Feb is likely to be cold and much drier with plenty of blocking HPs.

 

Quote got messed up. I was quoting John H post.

Edited January 18, 2014 by TEITS

[Summer Sun]

Is that a Ramp SS......... :-),

 

It will take more than one run for me to ramp up any cold

 

[UV-RAY]

Yes Bobby, A cold N/W flow bringing snowfalls  across the UK during the last week of Jan.

 

The JMA model was hinting at this but the overall trend was still of a mobile westerly set up, so any cold will be of the 1-2 day variety. I'll still take that though as compared to what we've endured thus far it will seem like nirvana.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

reading  posts  above reg the  the prospects of the white stuff possible one day   Jan  27, all i can see is look west  for more  rain, floods even deep into fantasy world  no let  up in  sight

i  hope  i  am wrong we all know  what happened  last time!!!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows no end in sight to the prolonged unsettled pattern with further spells of strong winds and heavy rain interspersed with colder, showery days and with the alignment of the jet veering more wnw / ese we would have more chance of snow in places as well as occasional frosty nights with an airmass of arctic origins more often than not. The pattern does look more amplified at times with mid atlantic ridging. I think the ecm 00z mean looks promising with the high to the northeast edging closer, around T+240 hours could be the time when our non existent winter finally catches fire.

[Polar Maritime]

The JMA model was hinting at this but the overall trend was still of a mobile westerly set up, so any cold will be of the 1-2 day variety. I'll still take that though as compared to what we've endured thus far it will seem like nirvana.

 

Yes SI it's a start at least... Then hopefully we could be looking N/N/E.

[Frosty.]

Yes SI it's a start at least... Then hopefully we could be looking N/N/E.

As we did in Dec 2010..... I have high hopes of a pattern change soon with winter finally showing it's teeth.