South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/14

[Summer of 76]

If your feeling snow sick, have a look at these

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21073460

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21064379

[Flaked Queen]

Hello hope you all had a lovely weekend ! JJ wishing SM a speedy recovery .

MK. Hope you have a wonderful holiday .

Little man had a fab day - snow machine but told him the snow gods will make it up to him lol tbh I'm just glad he had a fab day and to see him happy makes me happy

Getting chilly here had heating on time for a hot bath and cuppa me thinks !

[JennyJane1]

just posted by ian f on mod thread

 

Having followed the weather for some years and knowing that every year there are quite intense discussions about the charts and what they show, even so, it seems to me that this year there is more confusion than I have ever seen over what is showing and what could be showing soon.

 

So does this mean anything in terms of the weather being a bit bizarre at the moment with all this rain and flooding?

[john pike]

hi jenny

 

no i have seen this before

 

its not the weather thats confusing its the models

 

and we have had plenty of floods etc over the years

 

it seems the models cannot work out a consistant pattern past 120-144

 

the bitter cold over north america dont help either

 

i think the jet is one of the biggest issues and will continue to be for now

 

do not rule out a complete set of bitter charts tomorrow

 

but unless at 120 or even 96

 

ignore them

[john pike]

hi bjaykent

 

think it is sitting there going LOSERS

 

or its probably lost and not sure where to go

Edited January 19, 2014 by john pike

[Steve C]

I'm just glad we should have a relatively dry couple of days (and hopefully very pleasant, as long as any fog clears) Okay, there may be a few showers near the south coast, but it's a lot better than we've had recently.

 

Just awaiting the Countryfile forecast, to see how much impact the midweek fronts have on us. It looks like the west will get a lot of rain in midweek and I'm hoping the fronts will 'rain out' to a degree there.

 

If it snows later then fine, but I'm not going to fret about it. Reading the model thread, although funny at times, can be a bit depressing, as people really do get wound up by the lack of snow.

[Katiewombat]

Hi All

What a beautiful and dare I say a cold day.m

please can someone translate what's going on with the models. The mad thread is a scarey and confusing place and I can't keep up with the models themselves.

Many thanks

Katie

[john pike]

just went in the mod thread

 

its ok i am safely back now

[john pike]

hi katie

 

stick with the fax charts is the only advice i can give for now

 

anything after is really a guess

 

if anyone knows that at present they probably have psychic powers and should do the lottery instead

[Steve C]

Oh well, the Countryfile forecast again just highlighted the knife edge uncertainty at the week end. Very cold air in close proximity, over the near continent by then. We need to wait.

[anything-but]

just went in the mod thread

 

its ok i am safely back now

*poltergeist mode*

 

Dont go into the light!! 

[Jason T]

Well country file forecast interesting. Everything very finely balanced this week in terms of The usual ie wet.n.windy or Wintry Conditions.Colder by Thursday into Friday at the moment....Stay tuned.

[Steve C]

hi katie

 

stick with the fax charts is the only advice i can give for now

 

anything after is really a guess

 

if anyone knows that at present they probably have psychic powers and should do the lottery instead

And everything John Hammond just said, suggested his own uncertainty - keep an eye on updates etc., with very little time spent on the latter part of the forecast.

[lottiekent]

Oh well, the Countryfile forecast again just highlighted the knife edge uncertainty at the week end. Very cold air in close proximity, over the near continent by then. We need to wait.

I like how honest he was, stating nothing was nailed on even as early as Wednesday..that's only 72hrs away! But I did take heart from the end of the forecast when he mentioned it could be much colder over the SE on Friday (I didn't dream that did I?!)

[Katiewombat]

just went in the mod thread

 

its ok i am safely back now

It really is bad over there. Everything I thought I was beginning to understand, I completely lost track of now.

Will try again in summer minus the MAD thread confusion and learning from non biast and balanced posters, like yourself,

Katie

hi katie

 

stick with the fax charts is the only advice i can give for now

 

anything after is really a guess

 

if anyone knows that at present they probably have psychic powers and should do the lottery instead

I thought it was time to give up. lol I can't make head not tail of the fax charts yet. lol

katie

[john pike]

hi katie

 

thankyou

 

 

hi steve

 

maybe the fax update tonight might help

 

i can live in hope cant i ? 

[JennyJane1]

Quite chilly here now and the gritters are out so they might be getting ready for some frost or ice.

[MAF]

slight frost forming as i've just walked pooch. been a great day today. the sun was warm out of the breeze and it was dry all day. now a frost forming. all i want is some snow and i'd be a happy man..... well i want more than snow to be a happy man; but you know what i mean

[Steve C]

It really is bad over there. Everything I thought I was beginning to understand, I completely lost track of now.

Will try again in summer minus the MAD thread confusion and learning from non biast and balanced posters, like yourself,

Katie

 

 

I think it's a poor place to try and learn in the winter - you find that a lot of the 'liked' posts are those that are based upon a reader's weather type bias - usually if snow is indicated in it, at this time of year. They are not necessarily the most informative. You're best taking most note of the posters that have been mentioned in this thread and not to necessarily ignore others, but build up knowledge from the knowledgeable and then work out who else posts well (and who are wind up merchants) There are a reasonable number of other good posters that haven't been mentioned previously IMHO.

 

The learners area on this site is very good for self study too.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Steve C

[john pike]

hi bjaykent

 

the mod thread posters ( some of them) havent got a clue

 

they will take the op at face value

 

now if i want to be facecious look at the 12 z ensembles

 

 

notice the mean drop on the 27th

 

now that is not that warm and precip spikes are lower here as well so an easterly might be possible as well

 

1 problem is its fi whether bitter cold or warm atlantic

 

but truth is

 

i cannot be bothered

 

anyway time for fax update

 

be back soon

[Steve C]

slight frost forming as i've just walked pooch. been a great day today. the sun was warm out of the breeze and it was dry all day. now a frost forming. all i want is some snow and i'd be a happy man..... well i want more than snow to be a happy man; but you know what i mean

 

Well I reckon you'd be seriously grumpy now if it wasn't the case!

[Flaked Queen]

Frost on cars here ... It's a start

[tinybill]

hi  just  back from the mod  thread  the natives  are  a bit restless in  there  to-night!!

[MAF]

Well I reckon you'd be seriously grumpy now if it wasn't the case!

nah.. dont do grumpy, or sneezy or doc or the rest of the 7 :lol:

actually, i really dont care much about what the weather is doing or going to do; i prefer to be suprised by it

Frost on cars here ... It's a start

yep. SE18 getting frosty too.

[Tamara]

Hi All

What a beautiful and dare I say a cold day.m

please can someone translate what's going on with the models. The mad thread is a scarey and confusing place and I can't keep up with the models themselves.

Many thanks

Katie

It sure is Katie !!  I have fresh scars to prove it