South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 16/01/14

[anything-but]

and to make things even more fun

 

cor a heatwave

Zoinks scooby.... Zoneality! :-D

[PiggiePalace]

Pootled out to get supplies an hour ago and car was already iced up. with -0.5C on the car thermometer . ..nearly ended up KNACKERED in the rather substantial potholes littering the roads down here.

Safely home NOW and having nommed a spur of the moment roast beef dinnerwith yorkshires etc (mainly from scratch but thanks due to Aunt Bessie), feeling all is right with the world...apart from the MOD thread of course

Great that JP's charts  support another dry day tomorrow.

xxx

 

[Jax]

Just been out (to the kitchen) and seen 2-3 inches of ice I need to clear in the morning

Edited January 19, 2014 by Jax

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Please can someone explain this chat in dumbo's terms. All the drama had made me so confused.http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/gem/run/gensnh-0-1-192.pngmany thanksKatie

I'm sure JP can do much better than I can, but please permit me to subject my nascent understanding to the scrutiny of the more knowledgeable.

 

Essentially, what you're seeing there is a northern hemisphere chart (north pole in the centre) showing  surface pressure (the white lines are isobars just as you'd see in a BBC forecast) and the heights at 500 hPa as the colour outputs.  What those colours are showing you is how far up you have to go in 10s of potential metres to get to the level of the atmosphere where the barometric pressure is exactly 500hPa (hPa = millibars).  Colder air tends to sit lower in the atmosphere, so the heights are lower - the height of the 500hPa layer is lower, and the colours tend towards the green-blue end of the spectrum.  Conversely, warm air expands, generating higher height values, with yellow, orange and red being the dominant colours.

 

You can combine the two factors shown in the chert to see where high and low pressure systems are likely to be located (low pressure is probably going to be accompanied by colder air due to being the result of an upper-level longwave trough, while highs will be associated with warmer air advecting from the south in a longwave ridge) and the airflow near the surface around and within those areas.  It gives an idea of what sort of weather might dominate in or part of the world at the time covered by the chart (bear in mind, however, that next Monday is in FI at the moment due to uncertainty in how the synoptics are doingto play out).

Edited January 19, 2014 by chrisbell-nottheforecaster

[john pike]

fax for thursday

 

 

and friday

 

 

i am going to keep quiet at present

 

a smal shift west from the high on friday would see very cold for us

 

these are cold anyway

 

uppers thursday

 

120 friday

 

 

it really is too close for me to call as well

 

will hopefully get this resolved tomorrow night

 

 

1 point

 

the friday fax has 1036 high pressure showing

 

i reckon that will not move as easy as the charts are showing at present

 

going to be an interesting one tomorrow

Edited January 19, 2014 by john pike

[Jax]

JP I saw the week forecast on Countryfile and they too are keeping their cards close for the end of the week.

[john pike]

hi jax

 

i would normally do the forecast here

 

i can see why they have kept quiet as well

 

maybe tomorrow might work it out

 

but got a feeling we may have to wait until tues night

[Captain Shortwave]

That is really a close call on Friday, the 528 dam line just across the north sea. Wouldn't take much to see a max of 6C become one around freezing from there.

[JennyJane1]

and to make things even more fun

 

did you sort them all trout then?

[Jax]

did you sort them all trout then?

LOL I really did a groan then at that one.

[Crepuscular Ray]

All these puns are bad for your soles.

 

Very thin cloud here, not masking the Moon, but cutting out any starlight that is visible in London. Fog isn't forecast for here, but I woudn't bet on it.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Crepuscular Ray

[john pike]

ecm ensembles

 

temps

 

 

both ops right at the warmer end of the ensembles

 

note the mean

 

no freeze but not warm either

 

wind

 

 

fi around the 25th

 

28th on gfs goes loopy again

 

rain

 

 

if the atlantic is coming in the main runs are not showing loads of rain here

[snowbob]

Gfs is really on one at the moment jp

If that don't prove a pattern change on the cards I don't know what does.

Only problem is no one knows when and to what .

Edited January 19, 2014 by snowbob

[john pike]

hi bob

 

got a feeling ecm tonight isnt too clever either

 

if that block to our north east holds

 

the models will have a nightmare resolving what happens next

 

remember a few years back

 

its happenened before

[snowbob]

Yeah and I also think that it may be underestimated so much that fri night ends up cold and the rain from the west won't even get past Ireland

Just an idea

[Captain Shortwave]

hi bob

 

got a feeling ecm tonight isnt too clever either

 

if that block to our north east holds

 

the models will have a nightmare resolving what happens next

 

remember a few years back

 

its happenened before

Hopefully the models fishtail to a cold outlook tomorrow 

[john pike]

will post the gfs ensembles

 

then i will be FIN ished for the night

[Captain Shortwave]

will post the gfs ensembles

 

then i will be FIN ished for the night

If things look like going down the trout, then we can always get Michael Fish on the case 

Edited January 19, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[john pike]

or i can turn on the charm and fish for compliments

[Captain Shortwave]

Just don't fall hook, line and sinker for any low resolution gfs output 

Right time to sleep... but not with the fishes and hopefully not for a long time yet.

Edited January 19, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[JennyJane1]

All these puns are bad for your soles.

 

Citrus self down and tell me more about this lemon sole.

[Crepuscular Ray]

You can angle for compliments all you like, Mr Pike.

 

What on earth is AJPoolShark going to make of this in the morning?

[JennyJane1]

Enough of this i think I shall clam up now and try to sleep, after all it would be shellfish of me to take any more of your time with these awful jokes.

 

night everyone its been fun xx

[john pike]

 

 

heres an interesting chart 

[Jax]

 

 

heres an interesting chart 

BANK!

You can angle for compliments all you like, Mr Pike.

 

What on earth is AJPoolShark going to make of this in the morning?

He is a pool shark, what is the worst that can happen?