Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[Stuie]

Thought it was worth looking at UK extreme winter charts from the past. Raised my eyes a bit, well more than a bit. I remember that sledge I had...

 

Edit: I should have stated chart 1 is 1947, chart 2 is today`s ECM.

Edited January 23, 2014 by StuieW

[Earth Wind and Snow]

ECM ens, err.... the massive raging mean canadian vortex over Greenland/Canada of yesterdays runs has vanished. A much more meridinal pattern is favoured going into week 2 now. Low heights look like continuing to drop south east through the UK much like the operational.

Not bad really.

850s are solid too

 

Earlier on, we have the -8 isotherm touching the east coast at day 7

Plenty of interest I think in the next few weeks.

A huge change in the mean charts towards cold persisting and undercutting lows on ECM - considering there is probably a cluster of milder members those charts are as cold as we could hope with plenty of precipitation about - if we could just pull the pattern a little further west, most would be at risk of snow over next 10 days

 

Exciting times

 

EWS 

[bluearmy]

amazing ecm ens run.  i am a bit confused by ian's reports of exeter's thoughts. i'm absolutely fine with the public forecasts but having been through the 00z ens mean to day 15 and seen the way the pattern was backing west over time, (see my post from late morning), i was surprised to read that the general lack of predicted wintryness away from the ne of the uk out to day 10 and perhaps beyond. now we have that ecm 12z ens run and i suspect there may some eyes raised in devon. it shouldnt be such a surprise though.

[Iceni]

When we have floods here, the usual comment is "at least it's not snowing, so we can still get around".

I don't think many people over the age of 10 actually like snow under any circumstances ....

 

 

Really? I'm waaaaaaaay over the age of 10 and love it. As for getting around I'd love to take you on our daily dog walk, which is now restricted to the side of fields or the road because all the tracks and public footpaths are impassible with mud.

 

I'd imagine Ian Brown is pouring himself another glass of single malt with a smug smile on his face... "Told 'em, but they wouldn't listen... shot me down in flames " Ian - I'm sure you're a much nicer person than that.

 

Can anyone point me to where I can get the accumulated rainfall totals? I want to imagine what it would be like as snowfall.

[Joe Levy]

amazing ecm ens run.  i am a bit confused by ian's reports of exeter's thoughts. i'm absolutely fine with the public forecasts but having been through the 00z ens mean to day 15 and seen the way the pattern was backing west over time, (see my post from late morning), i was surprised to read that the general lack of predicted wintryness away from the ne of the uk out to day 10 and perhaps beyond. now we have that ecm 12z ens run and i suspect there may some eyes raised in devon. it shouldnt be such a surprise though.

I live in Exeter, I'll just go over and check if their eyes are raised for you joking aside, I agree - we have often seen situations where the strength of the block has been underestimated by the models, allowing the pattern to back further west over time. However, we should be careful, as the Scandi high, the Azores high and the Canadian vortex hold a fine balance and one slight alteration and we are either in cold easterlies or cool northwesterlies! Or something else...

[karlos1983]

Really? I'm waaaaaaaay over the age of 10 and love it. As for getting around I'd love to take you on our daily dog walk, which is now restricted to the side of fields or the road because all the tracks and public footpaths are impassible with mud.

 

I'd imagine Ian Brown is pouring himself another glass of single malt with a smug smile on his face... "Told 'em, but they wouldn't listen... shot me down in flames " Ian - I'm sure you're a much nicer person than that.

 

Can anyone point me to where I can get the accumulated rainfall totals? I want to imagine what it would be like as snowfall.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=18&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO= 

[Summer Sun]

A cold ECM ensemble this evening especially from t168, infact the best set of ensembles of the year from ECM for coldies

 

 

Given the 850's snow could fall just about anywhere

 

Before the above we have an easterly feed, t120 looks marginal away from Scotland and the far north of England t144 offers a better chance of wintery showers in the east

 

 

About time I dug out the cold smiley I think

 

Edited January 23, 2014 by Summer Sun

[IDO]

 Can anyone point me to where I can get the accumulated rainfall totals? I want to imagine what it would be like as snowfall.

Here you are:http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebchartsgfsopuktotprecip.phpBased on GFS. You can see why the Met are concerned.

[karlos1983]

 Or something else...

 

lets not go to that place 

[bradymk]

Wow! ECM 12z ensembles, that is all. That big block to the east is heading nowhere. and big improvement over Greenland/E Canada. Very cold short ens for de bilt. Looking forward to the London set. Doubt UKMO will still change to a colder tune yet, depends on what Mo-greps offers this evening. If we get a 00z set like this though, they may start to take note of something more extended.  I honestly thought tonights op was a good reflection of recent ENS runs but its basically a mild outlier tonight, big set of ens.

Edited January 23, 2014 by bradythemole

[Tim Bland]

Best ECM ensembles of the year! Just need a slight upgrade tommorow on the uppers and we can start talking about snow amounts

[draztik]

 

Can anyone point me to where I can get the accumulated rainfall totals? I want to imagine what it would be like as snowfall.

here's the accumulated precipitation from ecm thru 240

[Long haul to mild]

Every day the model output seems to get incrementally colder with more and more wintry options appearing, but we still lack the real "boom" charts as of yet.

However, I see this as a good thing as stellar charts only lead to disappointment when they usually downgrade, so instead all aboard the slow train to a wintry outlook with hopefully some snowy surprises!

I still have a hunch February will turn out to be a cold month, so much so that I've even changed my username

Edited January 23, 2014 by Long haul to mild

[SMU]

ECM operational

SIGNIFICANT MILD OUTLIER

!!!!

[Weather-history]

Very cold westerly tonight! Having ventured out I'm surprised to feel how cold it is - even here in the UHI of Walthamstow. Good ECM. All to play for now... With Westerlies this chilly anything is possible - not surprised to hear of the shock rush hour blizzard up in Yorkshire.

And this is what you said yesterday in response to my post about what I was hinting about these cold westerlies "Maybe above 1,000ft - but how many people live so high up? Can't get excited by hill snow"

[karlos1983]

Every day the model output seems to get incrementally colder with more and more wintry options appearing, but we still lack the real "boom" charts as of yet.

However, I see this as a good thing as stellar charts only lead to disappointment when they usually downgrade, so instead all aboard the slow train to a wintry outlook with hopefully some snowy surprises!

I still have a hunch February will turn out to be a cold month, so much so that I've even changed my username

 

You could say it's the Long haul to mild cold  

[bluearmy]

ECM operationalSIGNIFICANT MILD OUTLIER!!!!

 

in holland steve. clearly the russian ridge is bossing events to our east and those who have steadfastly refused to appreciate that we are in the battleground need only look at runs like the 12z ecm suite.  of course, the ecm is noted for skewing an entire suite but a look at T168 mean shows the ridge backed over the uk from the east !! no surprise that the jet then takes a hike se thereafter.   the 00z run will be awaited with much interest. what i found significant about the 12z op was that it followed the 00z mean and anomoly closely days 6-10. thats always a good sign for continuity. 

 

could do with gfs and gem coming around a bit but then gfs has thrown out some ops which are definitely supportive of this solution over the past couple days and gem is not so far away. 

 

dont want to raise expectations too much but as someone on here used to say 'let the trend be your friend" !!

[tight isobar]

ECM operational

SIGNIFICANT

ECM operational

SIGNIFICANT MILD OUTLIER

!!!!

ensembles, ecm , would at this stage surely make most in the know, sit up n, look. Again some underestimated imo .

[Stuie]

ECM operationalSIGNIFICANT MILD OUTLIER!!!!

Steve, I think you should expand on that. Are we talking no temps above zero?

[Iceaxecrampon]

Interesting today late afternoon and seemingly on cue and as predicted for Thursday -   we had the first snow of 2014 at virtual sea level on near coastal (Fylde - Lancashire) areas -  Northern wind direction and frontal edge hail then sleet and a slight dusting of snow from heavy Irish Sea laden skies.

 

Looking ahead to midweek the LP sits over the UK with possible ppn down all the way to Poole.

 

 

 

Ian

Edited January 23, 2014 by Iceaxecrampon

[Frosty.]

ECM operational

SIGNIFICANT MILD OUTLIER

!!!!

HOLY COW.. we should bring back snow watch  

[Biggin]

Yep thanks for this Nick, didn't see shed's post - due to a neat feature on NW... 

Good innit ?? I dont think I have seen any posts on here or other threads modelwise or not, that have predicted todays snow showers which surely means that next week will see even better. Its ok people saying "well we did mention there may be somethin "wintery" but me and a few other people didnt see that. With the models predicting colder temps after the weekend maybe even more of us will see some "snow showers"

[karlos1983]

Interesting today late afternoon and seemingly on cue and as predicted for Thursday -   we had the first snow of 2013 at virtual sea level on near coastal (Fylde - Lancashire) areas -  Northern wind diredtion and frontal edge hail then sleet and a slight dusting of snow from heavy Irish Sea laden skies.

 

Looking ahead to midweek the LP sits over the UK with possible ppn down all the way to Poole.

 

h500slp.png

 

uksnowrisk.png

 

Ian

You are my friend!! 

[Mark Neal.]

Interesting. Mogreps might be also giving support to easterly, or maybe i am reading to far between the lines..

https://twitter.com/essexweather/status/426460716002856960

" “@EssexWeather: @russelldavis81 @kevski74 Tonights ECM & MOGREPS so close to perfect set-up for mother of all Easterlies. How can we kill off the Atlantic?â€

Hmm

[pdiddy]

I think this shows what Steve is referring to...