Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[IDO]

The 12z GEFS that are the closest to UKMO at T132 are by T240 rather uninspiring. They are all zonal but the flow is more NW to SE but it is mainly stalling LP systems and by then the block is still further east. thus precipitation for most is in the form of rain.

 

So the Met update for a possible 2-3 day cold period for the M4 north with some snow for altitude and northernness looks spot on from current GEFS, though this is based on only a relative small sample.

 

The 12z ensembles for London: 

 

No trend towards a cold/icy/snowy period. Slightly below average uppers with snow chances in FI just a background signal. However none of the three clusters at T132 are synoptically good long term for snow. All ties in with the expert's views (Met).

[shaky]

Boy there's no comments on the ecm??I thought the 96 hour chart was a beaut!!where is everyone?

[gottolovethisweather]

Just to reiterate how confusing things might seem, when we're all chasing FI synoptics and looking out into February given the anticipated Atlantic breakthrough. The "here and now" hasn't actually changed much as you can see from my post two days ago shown below. 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/?p=2902374

 

FWIW the East meets West battle is continuing with today's runs so far pushing things further West i.e. the block holding things back and allowing for potential undercutting lows (as per Saturday), unlike two days ago. This battle IMHO will be played out for many a day yet and yes, next week looks much colder than the current spell, where in Newbury I've received a day max of 7.2c, colder still out East. Just how cold next week gets remains to be seen, as it is on a knife-edge regarding potential snowfall signals, but at least they are there.

Edited January 23, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[snowbob]

To busy arguing whether the met office long range is right or wrong

I agree @ 96 ECM

What we want to see

Looking good so far

Edited January 23, 2014 by snowbob

[Paul White.]

Ah - but that's because 'ice' warning is always used as an umbrella / generic one when the type of solid PPN might vary. It'll only be specified in singular fashion as snow, hail, freezing rain, etc etc in the text when conditions afford high forecasting certainty of such an outcome (and in doing so, also meeting the warning criteria laid-out in the PWS warning matrix).

Fair enough I'll try and explain all of that to the wife. Because she has just given me a rollicking for reading this thread every night and not telling her that a localised blizzard was gonna hit West Yorkshire during rush hour. Lol

[Cloud 10]

Tonights ECM 12Z has strengthened the blocking over the arctic considerably for day 5 when compared with yesterday,which results in everything backing west.

 

yesterday..  today..

[R.P. McMurphy]

Tonights ECM 12Z has strengthened the blocking over the arctic considerably for day 5 when compared with yesterday,which results in everything backing west.

 

yesterday..ECH1-144.gif  today..ECH1-120.gif

 

Yup, back on topic that is a great chart - we almost have the Arctic-Scandi link up... Is Winter starting to finally wake up.... ?

 

If the models continue that pattern there's only one way it's going to turn out, and thats a cold Easterly flow.

 

I think Ian F mentioned something regarding the temperatures across Germany the other day?

 

 

Quite so, but the drop in WBFL to 400m by early hrs Mon is striking. More striking still, as the UKMO Dep Chief includes in his briefing, is the temperature contrast he highlights across former E Germany, noting this is important "...should the winds turn easterly next week...".

Edited January 23, 2014 by Glenn W

[shaky]

One of the most weirdest charts from 96 -120 hours from the ecm!!

[The Eagle]

ECM 144 is good enough but not the coldest 

 

[Stuie]

It might not be much but the Azores doesn`t nudge in on this run (So far).

[Captain Shortwave]

Much better across the pole from the ECM, energy isn't spilling across from Siberia to feed the Canadian vortex.

 

 

 

By the way, I don't buy the quick retreat eastwards of the Scandi high to be honest

Edited January 23, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[The Eagle]

The 168 chart is cold though.......

 

 

[bluearmy]

the change in the polar blocking from the other side NH manages to cut off the lobe of vortex beuing passed across to canada from siberia. will be interesting to see how the canadian vortex looks by day 10 if the split remains intact for the rest of the run

captain beat me to it !

Edited January 23, 2014 by bluearmy

[tight isobar]

Not bad , I'm honestly going for an upgrade here , v soon ecm 144

[cooling climate]

Nothing very inspiring tonight from a coldies point of view.Next week may well

be rather cold with temps of 5c or 6c and some hill snow perhaps but nothing

in the way of proper winter weather,freeze etc.

It is certainly looking as if low land areas of the UK especially in the south

will have to wait until February for a chance of any proper cold weather ie

laying snow etc.

[Mucka]

Quite a difference in the way the NH was modelled from this morning as expected but more improvements will be needed if we want the block to hold on longer.

 

Edited January 23, 2014 by Mucka

[Wadey]

Mods can we split the thread into 3 parts, mild point of view, cold point of view and the pro's view ?

[bluearmy]

ecm 12z out to day 8 looks just like you would expect if you were following the ecm ens mean and anomolys.

[mishy]

Mods can we split the thread into 3 parts, mild point of view, cold point of view and the pro's view ?

 

This. Mods, please feel free to delete this post, but I have to agree with Wadey. As a novice I get very confused

[Stuie]

Mods can we split the thread into 3 parts, mild point of view, cold point of view and the pro's view ?

Not sure there is a mild point of view for next week.

[weather eater]

Quite a difference in the way the NH was modelled from this morning as expected but more improvements will be needed if we want the block to hold on longer.

 

 

Indeed but we don't want BOOM chats appearing just yet, they almost always go POP, better to have slowly slowly catch a monkey. Some fascinating outputs at the moment, it looks a bit of a case of rinse and repeat at 192hrs but that's a long way off and will be subject to much revision.

[Captain Shortwave]

Crikey, this would be very wet and possibly snowy for the lucky ones

so, so tight this one, a little more push towards favouring the block and this set up could be epic.

Edited January 23, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Team Jo]

I think you'll find we already have three areas to post regarding models folks.....

There's also a dedicated Met office discussion and your regionals if you want to know if it's going to snow on your patio.

[bluearmy]

the ecm 12z run is cold for much of the uk. large swathes under slow moving low pressure with thicknesses sub 528, uppers -4/-7c and continental feed at times. how anyone can make a prediction of no snow or loads of snow defeats me. fwiw, i would say that if you live in the chilterns, i would be surprised if you couldnt make a snowman come the end of next week.

[nick sussex]

Ineteresting ECM T192hrs chart, with a bit more trough disruption I see a Feb 1996 revisited scenario. At 216hrs still no sign of zonal as we know it, everything moving se, a lot of potential in tonights ECM so far, with the displaced Azores high and still blocking to the ne.