Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[bluearmy]

Steve, I think you should expand on that. Are we talking no temps above zero?

 

steve is looking at the dutch ens. we will not have ice days in general next ten days unless we get snowfall and snowcover which i would now expect, though where remains uncertain.

[Iceaxecrampon]

You are my friend!! 

thought I would give you a mention......

[Yarmy]

Under 10 and proud of it. Mean at T144.

 

[fergieweather]

Hi all

I'm just returning to the JMA for a moment, as I thought it helpful to re-clarify how UKMO view it / use it / compare it while preparing medium-range forecasts.

 

As I said before, it's a great model; highly rated and I've heard it argued that it is better than GFS in many respects.

 

The following comments from one of the longstanding Chief Forecasters at Exeter were kindly sent to me today in response to some questions I asked him, which hopefully offer better insight (PS for those unfamiliar with our 'lingo' the FSXX region means the FAX chart region covered by UKMO synoptic charts):

 

"The JMA performs well over the North Atlantic region in the long term stats, probably a little better than GFS for the FSXX region. The main problem for us is the data, we don't see the latest main run until after the 2-3 day guidance is done... (however) The T+96 and T+120 MSLP are available to feed into the mix for the day 4-5 Met Office forecast which leans more heavily on MOGREPS, ECMWF EPS and the NCEP ensemble."

[Mair Snaw]

I really hope weve seen the back of this for a long while......first snow of winter here today..more please..

[Joe Levy]

I think this shows what Steve is referring to...

 

 

Now I am sure that most of them do not get that cold for us, but it certainly is a big swing in the ensembles and would suggest that there is a great deal of potential for more significant cold to be had. I would be interested to see the London ensembles as that will indicate better how many of the members transfer the cold over to the UK for such a period of time.

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi all

I'm just returning to the JMA for a moment, as I thought it helpful to re-clarify how UKMO view it / use it / compare it while preparing medium-range forecasts.

 

As I said before, it's a great model; highly rated and I've heard it argued that it is better than GFS in many respects.

 

The following comments from one of the longstanding Chief Forecasters at Exeter were kindly sent to me today in response to some questions I asked him, which hopefully offer better insight (PS for those unfamiliar with our 'lingo' the FSXX region means the FAX chart region covered by UKMO synoptic charts):

 

"The JMA performs well over the North Atlantic region in the long term stats, probably a little better than GFS for the FSXX region. The main problem for us is the data, we don't see the latest main run until after the 2-3 day guidance is done... (however) The T+96 and T+120 MSLP are available to feed into the mix for the day 4-5 Met Office forecast which leans more heavily on MOGREPS, ECMWF EPS and the NCEP ensemble."

Thanks again Ian, next week looks WICKED

[tight isobar]

Hi all

I'm just returning to the JMA for a moment, as I thought it helpful to re-clarify how UKMO view it / use it / compare it while preparing medium-range forecasts.

 

As I said before, it's a great model; highly rated and I've heard it argued that it is better than GFS in many respects.

 

The following comments from one of the longstanding Chief Forecasters at Exeter were kindly sent to me today in response to some questions I asked him, which hopefully offer better insight (PS for those unfamiliar with our 'lingo' the FSXX region means the FAX chart regixon covered by UKMO synoptic charts):

 

"The JMA performs well over the North Atlantic region in the long term stats, probably a little better than GFS for the FSXX region. The main problem for us is the data, we don't see the latest main run until after the 2-3 day guidance is done... (however) The T+96 and T+120 MSLP are available to feed into the mix for the day 4-5 Met Office forecast which leans more heavily on MOGREPS, ECMWF EPS and the NCEP ensemble."

good stuff IF. And the data issues are the problem with the jap) mod however its begins to be a leader model, more so currently, and if that's in stone then on a possible cols perspective its quite possibly onwards/upwards. !

[shaky]

Now I am sure that most of them do not get that cold for us, but it certainly is a big swing in the ensembles and would suggest that there is a great deal of potential for more significant cold to be had. I would be interested to see the London ensembles as that will indicate better how many of the members transfer the cold over to the UK for such a period of time.

my word an outlier if there ever was one!!scary!!

[fergieweather]

Thanks again Ian, next week looks WICKED

 

Yeah, I'm not convinced we are even close to resolving some key issues especially mid-later next week. I'm aware of varying outcomes being considered. Anyway, let's see how it unfolds between runs tonight and end of the weekend. Understandably, everyone this end is focused on the looming issues now to end of Sunday.

[damianslaw]

Models are painting an interesting set up synoptic wise with a classic battleground situation developing - cold blocks to our east are notoriously difficult topredict and have a tendancy particularly during the latter part of the winter to catch the models out by refusing to budge.. and there are stirrings this is beginning to look the case now, even with a predicted energised Jetstream.

 

The models have shunted things further west today, hence we are seeing charts showing the trough going under the block backing in an easterly feed by Tuesday/Wednesday - this is shown on GFS, UKMO and ECM. UKMO is showing a very strong build of heights to our NE and the Meto forecast for Monday is for precipitation to become increasingly wintry in the NE.. so they are latching onto the colder theme.

 

I do rate ECM over GFS when it comes to developments to our east, and it is suggesting a very meridional pattern developing next week with troughs forced on a SE-NW path, becoming increasingly defined, so not only may we see wintry stuff from the east, we would also be tapping into cold uppers from the NW - classic cold zonality, something we haven't seen much of in recent winters.

 

For weather enthusiasts who like to see the atlantic do battle against a continental influence, the current situation is very exciting. If everything was 200 miles further west then the UK would be looking at a very cold snowy outlook - alas it looks like we might be just a bit too far west for this, however, there is a strong chance the fine margins may tip in favour of the colder side, if trends from today's models notably ECM verify.

[Iceni]

I really hope weve seen the back of this for a long while......first snow of winter here today..more please..

 

It's an equation.... nuff said.

 

The snow would be just about up to my husband's eyebrows based on those accumulation charts - thanks guys. If we lived in the West Country, he'd be buried and I'd have to call out a St Bernard.

 

 

Please let the accumulation match the depth of cold IMBY, St Bernard, if you are the patron saint of snow.

Edited January 23, 2014 by Iceni

[karlos1983]

Yeah, I'm not convinced we are even close to resolving some key issues especially mid-later next week. I'm aware of varying outcomes being considered. Anyway, let's see how it unfolds between runs tonight and end of the weekend. Understandably, everyone this end is focused on the looming issues now to end of Sunday.

 

and rightly so,which is also compelling viewing as well, just a shame it will bring nightmare situations to some.

[Timmytour]

Early changes in 18z GFS....Low to SW of Iceland wrapped tighter and pressure lower over Med

[Stuie]

steve is looking at the dutch ens. we will not have ice days in general next ten days unless we get snowfall and snowcover which i would now expect, though where remains uncertain.

Thanks for that mate. That`s ok for an Easterly feed but considering we also have the North sea between us and De Bilt, a little risky to put hopes on that/there.

 

Edit: Rather than posting again, the more I look at the 1947 chart with today`s ECM, the more it looks extremely similar. Posted earlier.

Edited January 23, 2014 by StuieW

[phil nw.]

As many of you have said the ECM mean outputs are quite cold and a bit of a surprise to be honest.

Beyond day 6 they bring in -5C uppers down through much of the UK and keep us cold to the end.

 

 

The Op run a little milder mixing out the colder air later on as the subsequent low comes se.

A really interesting period coming up with that block showing it.s persistence next week so a straightforward evolution to westerlies is very much in the balance.

An increasing chance of more widespread snowfall if anything like the ECM evolution came about i would think once that colder air comes in.

 

[tight isobar]

Yeah, I'm not convinced we are even close to resolving some key issues especially mid-later next week. I'm aware of varying outcomes being considered. Anyway, let's see how it unfolds between runs tonight and end of the weekend. Understandably, everyone this end is focused on the looming issues now to end of Sunday.

yes as again ( ashot in the dark ) in forecasting terms Sunday 00, onwards.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Under 10 and proud of it. Mean at T144.

 

 

Over the US they expect a prolonged cold surge with PV similar to what we see with 'repeat' pattern.  I think we may see this block not going anywhere fast as that snapshot suggests if it repeats.....its all to play for and probably we are in a better/best position this winter for a 'shot'.

An acquaintance of mine has gone for first two weeks of Feb to be coldest period of winter....and cold period too timed with big cold shot for US.  We shall see. 

 

BFTP

Edited January 23, 2014 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Frosty.]

my word an outlier if there ever was one!!scary!!

I might have to start ramping up this cold spell if the models carry on like this.

 

Fliipin heck, check out the Ecm 12z ensemble mean, it's FAB-U-LUS...it's absolutely amazing looking mean tonight, even more wintry than the 12z op. I think there could be a lot of snow next week, ice days and an EPIC end to Janvier..I mean January. 

[Tim Bland]

If the 00z ECM and ensembles are similar to this evenings 12z - I expect some happy coldies posting on here tommorow lunchtime when the Metoffice release their update!

[Downpour]

Good innit ?? I dont think I have seen any posts on here or other threads modelwise or not, that have predicted todays snow showers which surely means that next week will see even better. Its ok people saying "well we did mention there may be somethin "wintery" but me and a few other people didnt see that. With the models predicting colder temps after the weekend maybe even more of us will see some "snow showers"

Indeed. I think it's a stretch to say it was forecast. Re: the ECM interesting to learn the Op run was a mild outlier. It's a war of attrition this - meanwhile next week looks chilly for those of us in the East while somewhere in the north-west midlands might get a decent dump of snow

If the 00z ECM and ensembles are similar to this evenings 12z - I expect some happy coldies posting on here tommorow lunchtime when the Metoffice release their update!

The Office have been very reluctant to even flirt with cold this winter - and they have been pretty much bang on (tonight possibly excepted). We will see what tomorrow brings..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Indeed. I think it's a stretch to say it was forecast. Re: the ECM interesting to learn the Op run was a mild outlier. It's a war of attrition this - meanwhile next week looks chilly for those of us in the East while somewhere in the north-west midlands might get a decent dump of snowThe Office have been very reluctant to even flirt with cold this winter - and they have been pretty much bang on (tonight possibly excepted). We will see what tomorrow brings..

 

Nothing suggesting that just yet, these charts are still FI, until GFS gets fully on board I will not be convinced, waiting for 00Z's, advantage is it's not mid Dec to mid Jan,

[Matty M]

Well a pleasant surprise this evening, some flip on the ECMWF short ensembles for DeBilt

[bluearmy]

can we get our heads around this fact - the op was a warm outlier for holland. it was likely not a warm outlier for the uk. all the ecm ens members took an easterly feed into holland middle next week. for whatever, reason , the op and control are less cold than the ens for a few days. towards the end, thats because the op and control have a deeper system coming in than the ens. there are doubtless other reasons before. i would ignore it as being 'strange'.  what you need to know is that all 51 ens members bring an easterly to holland next wed/thurs and thats impressive. it means the mean charts for this side of the channel are probably not too far from accurate at a similar timescale.

[Northern Sky]

Tsk Tsk.....You missed out the following... Ian Brown, for comedy value of his mild rampsOON, for sarcastic put downs (my hero)Frosty, you post a spanish plume and he'll show you a beast from the east perturbation as he's that dedicated to the cause

A couple of other notable omissions were Mucka for his informed and realistic optimism and Snowking with his MJO composites etc who helps fill the gap left by GP - just wish he posted a bit more often!It's interesting that yet again the block to the east seems far more difficult to break down than the models first portray. It's a situation that we have seen a number of times over the last few years. Is there a particular reason the models find this scenario difficult?