Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[SMU]

Well the 18z is already hovering over the bin at 96 as the deep cold over Russia is going south not west with no consistency V the rest of the models

so that element is poor-

 

upstream- changes as well.

 

Ive enjoyed the day & the 18z is a mere pimple on the bum cheeks of the great output.....

 

S

[Fred Sykes]

Yeah, I'm not convinced we are even close to resolving some key issues especially mid-later next week. I'm aware of varying outcomes being considered. Anyway, let's see how it unfolds between runs tonight and end of the weekend. Understandably, everyone this end is focused on the looming issues now to end of Sunday.

Indeed, the main focus should be on the amount of rain looming before looking towards possible cold. I would imagine the village of Muchelney on the Somerset levels will be more concerned about remaining as an island, and not sinking at this rate.

[bluearmy]

no great changes on the extended ecm ens other than the continued demise of the azores high which brings the atlantic south and we see a mean trough sat just to our west days 13-15. less momentum for the lower heights to go into europe. i think we await the model deciding what its next move will be with the jet. very little ne movement post day 7 and we may be entering a period of cold zonality with broad troughing around the uk. cool/cold.

[That ECM]

Away on business, sat in a beefeater throwing a steak down me, nothing more to add other than what a pleasure it has been to read many of the posts over the last 22 pages! To catch up.

[Mark Neal.]

Well the 18z is already hovering over the bin at 96 as the deep cold over Russia is going south not west with no consistency V the rest of the modelsso that element is poor- upstream- changes as well. Ive enjoyed the day & the 18z is a mere pimple on the bum cheeks of the great output..... S

Absolutely a day of upgrades if you are looking for a much colder output and chances of snow. I know I keep saying it's all to play for with who might see the white stuff, any hunches? Interesting to see the 00z to see if the UKMO remains bullish and also get more support from the GFS Gonna be essential model output viewing for sure.

[Snowy L]

You just know that shortwave at t+132 is going too ruin everything...

 

[Matty M]

Well if we were to plot the 18z GFS on the ECMWF de Bilt ensembles it would very much be on the warm end.

[Geordiesnow]

I can see why there is excitment but if the runs occur as they shown then they won't be a snowfest, just a soggy and cold fest, uppers are certainly not cold enough for much in the way of widespread snowfall. 

 

That said, detail is not important its about trends and the trend does appear to be some sort of a silder low pressure system however how it all plays out is far from clear just yet, I do kind of wish there is more cold air into the mix though, would sum the winter up if you get a moderated easterly wind! 

[Mucka]

Well the 18z is already hovering over the bin at 96 as the deep cold over Russia is going south not west with no consistency V the rest of the models

so that element is poor-

 

upstream- changes as well.

 

Ive enjoyed the day & the 18z is a mere pimple on the bum cheeks of the great output.....

 

S

 

More like a hideous boil in need of lancing but hardly a surprise. 

[Captain Shortwave]

So the GFS sinks the block to the north east and then spawns two shortwaves, one over Scotland and one over Western Norway, just to casually guide the upstream low to bring in a westerly breakdown.

Or I could have just said the GFS defaulted to zonal 

[bluearmy]

Despite all the above comments, it does make a valiant attempt to get on board with the general theme.

[SMU]

The only thing of note is the GFS get the low underneath @ 162 as opposed to over the top- plus the -15 cold nights over Scotland-

 

 

anyway don't worry about the 18z, its cannon & bin fodder all rolled into one-

 

S

[Cloud 10]

wrong chart posted

Edited January 23, 2014 by Cloud 10

[shaky]

The only thing of note is the GFS get the low underneath @ 162 as opposed to over the top- plus the -15 cold nights over Scotland-  anyway don't worry about the 18z, its cannon & bin fodder all rolled into one- S

steve what do you think of the navgem so far??

[Mucka]

Despite all the above comments, it does make a valiant attempt to get on board with the general theme.

 

But look how far East the block is compared to ECM and then add to that the fact that the ECM Op was more or less a mild outlier for Western Europe then imagine where this GFS run would sit in those ECM ensembles - would you take it seriously? 

 

Edited January 23, 2014 by Mucka

[Tom Jarvis]

Lol wouldn't it be typical if I don't get to go skiing in morzine because snow stops flights from taking off. Would be just typical. Be leaving on 2nd of feb

Edited January 23, 2014 by Tom Jarvis

[Allseasons-Si]

A cold ECM ensemble this evening especially from t168, infact the best set of ensembles of the year from ECM for coldies

 

 

Given the 850's snow could fall just about anywhere

 

Before the above we have an easterly feed, t120 looks marginal away from Scotland and the far north of England t144 offers a better chance of wintery showers in the east

 

 

About time I dug out the cold smiley I think

 

Heres one for you SS

 

 

as for the block to our E/NE,for the last few weeks the models have been showing a breakdown from the atlantic to take over,NOW do we see this,NO,this tells me that we cannot under-estimate the block,if we see more corrections west in subsequence runs in the next couple of days,then i will de-hibernate my sledge+ my duaghters

Edited January 23, 2014 by allseasons-si

[SMU]

steve what do you think of the navgem so far??

 

Not sure if you mean 18z or in the mains-

 

If you remember I used the 18z navgem the other night as the super means of all the decent runs & was the forecast-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&archive=1&mois=1&heure=18&jour=20&annee=2014

 

This was the 144 chart 3 days ago ( so now the 72 chart)

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgem/archives/2014012018/navgemnh-0-144.png?20-23

 

UKMO 72

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012312/UN72-21.GIF?23-18

 

I would say that NAVGEM run & the forecast I plumped for was pretty solid.

 

 

18z NAVGEM tonight is out to 78- looks ok

 

S

[bluearmy]

But look how far West the block is compared to ECM and then add to that the fact that the ECM Op was more or less a mild outlier for Western Europe then imagine where this GFS run would sit in those ECM ensembles - would you take it seriously? 

Course not mucka. Just noting the fact that despite having lots wrong, it still undercuts and drives the trough into Europe.

[SMU]

so then, in the grand scheme of things the GFS is the MOST progressive of all the models - however despite this the substantial snow depths for the NE are starting to become apparent.....

 

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/186_35.gif 

 

S

[bluearmy]

Looks like the met-office have adjusted the 120 hrs fax chart more towards the ecm ensemble mean rather than the ukmo raw.

 

EDM1-120.giffax120s.gifUW120-21.gif

That's yesterday's chart cloud. The new one is like the GM raw output at day 5

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

• Ruddy Nora, after this weekend GFS does this at day 9/10

 

Not mild either

 

BFTP

[Man With Beard]

I think this shows what Steve is referring to...

 

 

Well I'm blowed ... this can only mean that the Scandi is holding firm. It just underlines yet again ... the models do not have a clue with Scandi. This is at least the third time in two weeks that FI wanted to push it aside - a few runs later, the Scandi is still there ... it's a hard one to get rid of especially with the jet going south!

[Cloud 10]

That's yesterday's chart cloud. The new one is like the GM raw output at day 5

 

Ah right,Meteociel not updated yet despite the "N"

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

 

 

edit.

 

found the updated one on wetter.

 

Edited January 23, 2014 by Cloud 10

[Chris K]

Well from looking at todays GFS 18z run so far compared to the 12z (I know I should really be looking at yesterdays 18z but still...), one of the big differences (there are a couple of others as some have stated) comes in modelling the block over Scandi & Russia. (What a surprise!) 

 

If you look from as early as T+48 you can see this is where changes start initiating, resulting in different positioning and behaviour of the blocking high - particularly with the cold air flow direction and the fact the coldest uppers start pushing away in a more Easterly direction (if my bearings are right!). Compare the two as you click through the times on the model chart viewer - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

 

 

If you look across the Atlantic sector, whilst there are of course differences (Jet stream, Azores High influence, LP system timings/direction etc..), they aren't quite so stark compared to this.

 

Another day of hiding behind the sofa coming I think....and if we were to go by the 18z alone (going by some comments tonight...unlikely )..whatever we end up with next week seems to get stuck in a sort of 'rinse and repeat' pattern, with the possibility of some marginal snow events for some areas if it was to get cold enough. Not saying this is going to be the outcome of course...just my take on what it is showing in this run ALONE.

 

Edited January 23, 2014 by Chris K