E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

13APR2022: Nino3: -0.9 , Nino3.4: -0.9 , Nino4: -0.7

And finally: Liverpool versus Everton is a late kick-off!

[summer blizzard]

20APR2022: Nino3: -1.0 , Nino3.4: -1.0 , Nino4: -0.7

[summer blizzard]

27APR2022: Nino3: -1.2 , Nino3.4: -1.1 , Nino4: -0.8

April ONI came in around -0.95. 

FMA ONI came in at -1.0 (strongest since 2008 for this period). 

 

[summer blizzard]

Will give the full update later but all four ENSO zones are now below -1. 

This folks is a full blooded strengthening moderate La Nina.

[summer blizzard]

04MAY2022: Nino3: -1.1 , Nino3.4: -1.2 , Nino4: -1.1

First time since Feb 21 that Nino 4 is negative.

[summer blizzard]

April MEI was -1.6, second strongest since at least 1979. 

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

April MEI was -1.6, second strongest since at least 1979. 

shall take a look at the summer of 1999 and the following winter here see how they panned out in my location as this year looks similar

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

shall take a look at the summer of 1999 and the following winter here see how they panned out in my location as this year looks similar

A mixed summer 1999 but had its moments. July was very warm at times. Remember it being quite a thundery summer. The autumn was changeable and mild. December was quite cold here lots of polar air and some snow. 

[SqueakheartLW]

On 09/05/2022 at 18:02, summer blizzard said:

04MAY2022: Nino3: -1.1 , Nino3.4: -1.2 , Nino4: -1.1

First time since Feb 21 that Nino 4 is negative.

That's a well developed La Nina already for the time of year. Unless something strange happens between now and winter I think we can rule out El Nino now.

14 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

April MEI was -1.6, second strongest since at least 1979. 

I wouldn't rule out a strong La Nina event for winter 2022/23.

If anything can go against a cold winter it will and this year it looks like La Nina getting too strong will be the main culprit along with a WQBO.

[summer blizzard]

38 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

That's a well developed La Nina already for the time of year. Unless something strange happens between now and winter I think we can rule out El Nino now.

I wouldn't rule out a strong La Nina event for winter 2022/23.

If anything can go against a cold winter it will and this year it looks like La Nina getting too strong will be the main culprit along with a WQBO.

Doubt it will in ONI terms but MEI has been running at moderate for about a year now so when we are not subject to MJO disruption it appears the atmosphere is very well coupled.

Typically speaking La Nina strengthens in Q3 and peaks in Q4 which suggests we may be moderate to strong late in the year but there are years like 2012 where we stay steady state/see a slow weakening.

[cheeky_monkey]

19 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

shall take a look at the summer of 1999 and the following winter here see how they panned out in my location as this year looks similar

dry is the watch word here for summer 1999 through into winter of 1999-2000..nothing standouts with regards to temps..summer was coolish and dry apart from July which was cool and rather wet..Autumn on the whole was relatively warm and dry..winter was fairly average temps wise but again dry with not much in the way of snowfall.

[damianslaw]

10 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

That's a well developed La Nina already for the time of year. Unless something strange happens between now and winter I think we can rule out El Nino now.

I wouldn't rule out a strong La Nina event for winter 2022/23.

If anything can go against a cold winter it will and this year it looks like La Nina getting too strong will be the main culprit along with a WQBO.

Is this the third year of la Nina? As for winter predictions the weak la Nina combined with strong east qbo was a bust.. to he honest I'm no longer using teleconnections as a predictor of our weather.. last winter many factors were on the side for an increased chance of cold more than many a recent one, but we had one devoid of anything especially cold.

Edited May 13, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

On 12/05/2022 at 22:24, damianslaw said:

A mixed summer 1999 but had its moments. July was very warm at times. Remember it being quite a thundery summer. The autumn was changeable and mild. December was quite cold here lots of polar air and some snow. 

Yes, December 1999 certainly wasn't without interest with parts of the south seeing some fairly significant snow on the 18th.  However, the rest of the winter was dross.

14 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

That's a well developed La Nina already for the time of year. Unless something strange happens between now and winter I think we can rule out El Nino now.

I wouldn't rule out a strong La Nina event for winter 2022/23.

If anything can go against a cold winter it will and this year it looks like La Nina getting too strong will be the main culprit along with a WQBO.

Our turn will come one day?! 

Edited May 13, 2022 by Don

[summer blizzard]

11MAY2022: Nino3: -0.9 , Nino3.4: -1.1 , Nino4: -1.0

[summer blizzard]

18MAY2022: Nino3: -1.0 , Nino3.4: -1.1 , Nino4: -0.7

25MAY2022: Nino3: -0.9 , Nino3.4: -1.0 , Nino4: -0.8

[summer blizzard]

May ONI should come in at -1.1. A good chance that this will be a near record low for May.

MAM ONI should come in around -1.0, which would be the strongest since at least 2008.

[summer blizzard]

MAM ONI did come in at -1.1, second strongest since at least 1950.

Spring SOI was the second strongest on record since at least 1876.

May MEI was -1.7, strongest on record since at least 1979.

Sub-surface may be anemic but this event is exceptionally well coupled with the atmosphere.

Edited June 7, 2022 by summer blizzard

[cheeky_monkey]

5 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

MAM ONI did come in at -1.1, second strongest since at least 1950.

Spring SOI was the second strongest on record since at least 1876.

May MEI was -1.7, strongest on record since at least 1979.

Sub-surface may be anemic but this event is exceptionally well coupled with the atmosphere.

True enough for here ..we are having a relatively cool damp spring / early summer which ties in nicely with a 2nd year La Nina conditions..if everything pans out as per 2011 things should dry out as we head into July with a dry warm last half of July dry warm August /September to follow

[Scott Ingham]

The opinion of the Australians and some other experts feel this La Nina will slowly weaken come the winter and the majority of models do as well.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is at moderate strength over the western hemisphere, and is expected to strengthen over the next 1-3 weeks. The MJO is enhancing westerly wind anomalies currently in the western Pacific which will weaken the La Niña.

October i feel will come in at -0.6 and continue to weaken come january/february.

Weak to neutral la nina conditions are very favourable for winter.

Also favourable will be the strongly negative IOD come winter.

There is also some thought behind 3 year la ninas ending in cold conditions.

1976 being case in point

 

Strongly positive IOD correlates strongly with a +NAO in northern hemisphere winter and Strongly negative IOD correlates with a -NAO. The two rossby wave pathways of indian ocean/pacific/atlantic via the troposphere and the stratospheric pathway via an aleutian ridge work the same way as the atmosphere would in a strong la nino in a positive setting and the pathways in a weak la nina the same way as a strongly negative IOD dipole.

The IOD should reinforce the weak la nina and in my view give good grounding for a cold first half of winter.

Arctic ice melt patterns and october snow cover are still to come and these may either help or be destructive to the background state in regards to the boundary lines of cold and warm air via the jet stream but up to now im happy where were heading for this upcoming winter.

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by Scott Ingham

[Scott Ingham]

I know its the summer thread but dont know where else to post.

Juat some musings making up my winter forecast up to now based on predicted oceanic states come fall.

The opinion of the Australians and some other experts feel this La Nina will slowly weaken come the winter and the majority of models do as well.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is at moderate strength over the western hemisphere, and is expected to strengthen over the next 1-3 weeks. The MJO is enhancing westerly wind anomalies currently in the western Pacific which will weaken the La Niña.

October i feel will come in at -0.6 and continue to weaken come january/february.

Weak to neutral la nina conditions are very favourable for winter.

Also favourable will be the strongly negative IOD come winter.

There is also some thought behind 3 year la ninas ending in cold conditions.

1976 being case in point

 

Strongly positive IOD correlates strongly with a +NAO in northern hemisphere winter and Strongly negative IOD correlates with a -NAO. The two rossby wave pathways of indian ocean/pacific/atlantic via the troposphere and the stratospheric pathway via an aleutian ridge work the same way as the atmosphere would in a strong la nino in a positive setting and the pathways in a weak la nina the same way as a strongly negative IOD dipole.

The IOD should reinforce the weak la nina and in my view give good grounding for a cold first half of winter.

Arctic ice melt patterns and october snow cover are still to come and these may either help or be destructive to the background state in regards to the boundary lines of cold and warm air via the jet stream but up to now im happy where were heading for this upcoming winter.

 

[Bradley in Kent]

1 hour ago, Scott Ingham said:

I know its the summer thread but dont know where else to post.

Juat some musings making up my winter forecast up to now based on predicted oceanic states come fall.

The opinion of the Australians and some other experts feel this La Nina will slowly weaken come the winter and the majority of models do as well.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is at moderate strength over the western hemisphere, and is expected to strengthen over the next 1-3 weeks. The MJO is enhancing westerly wind anomalies currently in the western Pacific which will weaken the La Niña.

October i feel will come in at -0.6 and continue to weaken come january/february.

Weak to neutral la nina conditions are very favourable for winter.

Also favourable will be the strongly negative IOD come winter.

There is also some thought behind 3 year la ninas ending in cold conditions.

1976 being case in point

 

Strongly positive IOD correlates strongly with a +NAO in northern hemisphere winter and Strongly negative IOD correlates with a -NAO. The two rossby wave pathways of indian ocean/pacific/atlantic via the troposphere and the stratospheric pathway via an aleutian ridge work the same way as the atmosphere would in a strong la nino in a positive setting and the pathways in a weak la nina the same way as a strongly negative IOD dipole.

The IOD should reinforce the weak la nina and in my view give good grounding for a cold first half of winter.

Arctic ice melt patterns and october snow cover are still to come and these may either help or be destructive to the background state in regards to the boundary lines of cold and warm air via the jet stream but up to now im happy where were heading for this upcoming winter.

 

 

An informative post and well detailed, thank you!

I must admit though, I am not ready for dark nights and chasing cold spells which 19/20 don't materialise. Last winter just showed how you can have everything in place but as soon as that PV revs up you can forget everything else!

Edited June 9, 2022 by Bradley in Kent

[Don]

2 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

Weak to neutral la nina conditions are very favourable for winter.

Also favourable will be the strongly negative IOD come winter.

There is also some thought behind 3 year la ninas ending in cold conditions.

I believe the first of the cold winters (2008/2009) during the 2008-2013 period occurred during a decaying La Nina and the QBO was in its westerly phase, which is also likely for winter 2022/23?

Edited June 9, 2022 by Don

[Scott Ingham]

18 hours ago, Don said:

I believe the first of the cold winters (2008/2009) during the 2008-2013 period occurred during a decaying La Nina and the QBO was in its westerly phase, which is also likely for winter 2022/23?

Id have to check that im not entirely sure. I think it was a decaying la nina. How long into la nina was it before it decayed? Its the 3rd year ninas im doing some research in as theres tiny amounts of evidence to suggest colder winters have followed. If so id like to know why and how

[summer blizzard]

24 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Id have to check that im not entirely sure. I think it was a decaying la nina. How long into la nina was it before it decayed? Its the 3rd year ninas im doing some research in as theres tiny amounts of evidence to suggest colder winters have followed. If so id like to know why and how

Event peaked in Jan/Feb, a bit like 17/18 it developed late and weak.

[Cheshire Freeze]

19 hours ago, Don said:

I believe the first of the cold winters (2008/2009) during the 2008-2013 period occurred during a decaying La Nina and the QBO was in its westerly phase, which is also likely for winter 2022/23?

Tentatively it’s looking good for a colder than average winter 22/23 IMO.