South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 15/02/14

[Snowangel-MK]

 As for the water well the pump managed to pump it out to around the bottom of the garden we built a line of sand bags across it and then the pump was taken away (was on hire) now the water has risen and is to the top of the sand bags. 

Hope the flood water hasn't breached the sandbags Luke but just in case ......

[Jax]

14 foot shark off the coast of the isle of wight

BRUCE!

 

I wondered where he had gotten to...

[lassie23]

I don't know what is more frightening, the shark of the cat knitting.

[Canalboy]

According to a dispassionate observer of my acquaintance, and my heart and virtual bucket go out to all of those wallowing under water, from a purely empirical position no month so far this winter has approached the 218 mm of rain that fell in October 1903, and the total rainfall of November 1929, December 1929 and January 1920 was 812 mm.  At the present rate, the rainfall for January, February and February, will be in the order of 650 mm; such levels are not unprecedented.  Long before Prince Charles started fiddling with his green leaning cufflinks or Al Gore hove into view.

[john pike]

 

pretty big scatter on the 25th so fi there

 

a couple of days have picked up cooler-colder conditions 28th onwards

 

these are showing some rain but nothing like before

 

will update the fax charts soon

[Jax]

I don't know what is more frightening, the shark of the cat knitting.

It is the needle size that matters (how the hell do I know that bit of useless info?)

[lassie23]

It is the needle size that matters (how the hell do I know that bit of useless info?)

jax, shark owner and knitting enthusiast.

[Jason T]

Hello you lovely people.....Hope you all had a good day so far.

 

Flood risk update for the next 3 days.

 

[Tamara]

 

pretty big scatter on the 25th so fi there

 

a couple of days have picked up cooler-colder conditions 28th onwards

 

these are showing some rain but nothing like before

 

will update the fax charts soon

I will leave you to post the chart itself and do your fax analysis as usual john - but Thursday has taken a decided turn for the worse as Exeter pick up on the model suggestions to deepen much more the secondary wave feature from the atlantic. Exactly what isn't needed for a week that was supposed to show apparent improvement

[Iceni]

Thank you once again John! I clicked, I saw, I commented!

 

Where would we be without you?

[Iceni]

I will leave you to post the chart itself and do your fax analysis as usual john - but Thursday has taken a decided turn for the worse as Exeter pick up on the model suggestions to deepen much more the secondary wave feature from the atlantic. Exactly what isn't needed for a week that was supposed to show apparent improvement

 

I wish we had a 'Good news/Bad news button' as well as a Like/Unlike one.

[john pike]

hi tam

 

seen it and looks a bit wet for us with winds around 40-50 mph but will not be here long

 

this has more of a problem re rain for west and north of us

 

 

see the split low to our south west

 

now at 72

 

the low is over north of england

 

 

we have thursday afternoon of wind and rain for thurs-thursday afternoon

 

 

ukmo rain track

 

 

 

looks likely to be wet which wont help

 

but the heavier stuff just missing us

 

this though could look different tomorrow so i will hold until tomorrow night

 

i looked at the charts for 144 on

 

no agreement

 

so fi somewhere around the above for now

[Iceni]

According to a dispassionate observer of my acquaintance, and my heart and virtual bucket go out to all of those wallowing under water, from a purely empirical position no month so far this winter has approached the 218 mm of rain that fell in October 1903, and the total rainfall of November 1929, December 1929 and January 1920 was 812 mm.  At the present rate, the rainfall for January, February and February, will be in the order of 650 mm; such levels are not unprecedented.  Long before Prince Charles started fiddling with his green leaning cufflinks or Al Gore hove into view.

 

And in 1483 Henry Tudor was forced to abandon his invasion to take Richard III's crown. His army landed in Pembroke and got as far as the Welsh Marches, but was stopped in his tracks by flooding in the Severn/Gloucester area. Nothing new.

 

Btw - the late 15thC was around about the time of the start of the Little Ice Age which lasted another 300 years. Hope this isn't another one.

Edited February 17, 2014 by Iceni

[lassie23]

And in 1483 Henry Tudor was forced to abandon his invasion to take Richard III's crown. His army landed in Pembroke and got as far as the Welsh Marches, but was stopped in his tracks by flooding in the Severn/Gloucester area. Nothing new.

 

Btw - the late 15thC was around about the time of the start of the Little Ice Age which lasted another 300 years. Hope this isn't another one.

New  little ice age is upon us according to some, (joe b....astardi  piers corbyn etc

[john pike]

going to show this but only because its showing for now

 

ukmo at 144

 

 

now ecm

 

close enough although subtle differences on how high the pressure will be over us

 

gfs at 144

 

has low pressure to our north west lower and high pressure to our south east not over us

 

so if i run ecm for now

 

at 168

 

 

192

 

 

216

 

 

we have enough high pressure there to keep us on the dryer side

 

at 244

 

shows high pressure gone

 

the low to our west could go anywhere

 

it may die

 

it may go south of us which might be where the charts are hinting at cooler conditions at the end feb start of march

 

it also may hit us direct again

 

truthfully not sure of next week at present and can only see how the fax charts pan out on a 5 day outlook

 

regards

 

john

 

lets hope ecm is right tonight

Edited February 17, 2014 by john pike

[Iceni]

New  little ice age is upon us according to some, (joe b....astardi  piers corbyn etc

 

Apparently it only took about 10 years to switch.

 

This documentary 'Little Ice Age - Big Chill' was really interesting - it explained why growing potatoes became so vital and wide-spread in Europe and why the USians drink beer as opposed to wine. I was wrong it started in the 14th C.

 

Was going to post the link, but unfortunately YouTube has had to dump it due to copyright infringement. Why don't we see stuff like this on our TV?

 

Edit: Aha found a different one... enjoy

 

http://www.veoh.com/watch/v158890018kQaxQaK

Edited February 17, 2014 by Iceni

[john pike]

hi iceni

 

have seen that

 

not sure i like the 5 years of heavy rain before hand though

[lassie23]

Sounds like a doc well worth watching. There was the odd very mild winter in amongst the big freezes of the little ice age too. One thing is for sure, it will be a catastrophe should it happen, nobody is ready for this.

[lassie23]

thanks for the new link btw

[Summer of 76]

going to show this but only because its showing for now

 

ukmo at 144

 

 

now ecm

 

close enough although subtle differences on how high the pressure will be over us

 

gfs at 144

 

has low pressure to our north west lower and high pressure to our south east not over us

 

so if i run ecm for now

 

at 168

 

 

192

 

 

216

 

 

we have enough high pressure there to keep us on the dryer side

 

at 244

 

shows high pressure gone

 

the low to our west could go anywhere

 

it may die

 

it may go south of us which might be where the charts are hinting at cooler conditions at the end feb start of march

 

it also may hit us direct again

 

truthfully not sure of next week at present and can only see how the fax charts pan out on a 5 day outlook

 

regards

 

john

 

lets hope ecm is right tonight

John, reading the met office extended forecast seems to go along with this thinking or more rain for the north and west and less in the south east along with some frost.  This will hopefully help to reduce the flooding risk as we go through the next few weeks.

 

One thing I have noticed since last week when the models were showing the amount of rain for this area it was a lot less than suggested which has helped the the EA to move the water down the River Ouse without too much problems.  I would think that anyone on the levels are happy of less rain now they have had to switch off the new pumps for 48 hours as they were destroying the river bank due to the force of water being pumped out. I must admit that when I first saw all the pipes lined up and there was a suggestion that they would be able to force against the tidal flow I was surprised that they were not angled down stream.

[john pike]

tonight

 

showers around with the odd heavier burst

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

 

leading to morning leaving drizzly murk but with some dryer slots as well

 

temps not cold  6-7 degrees

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

 

a weak south westerly flow

 

rainfall

 

should start mainly dry in the morning

 

however the trough on the fax looks to cross the region just after lunch

 

temps

 

around 8-9 degrees

 

there is a chance the afternoon may see some thundery showers in the mix

 

which may cause some localised downpours and hail as well

 

conditions improving late afternoon

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow night

 

 

a weak westerly flow

 

trough has passed but one sat to our west which could pay a visit overnight

 

rainfall

 

ukmo showing dry here

 

but i would not rule out the odd thunderstorm again overnight according to the fax chart

 

 

temps

 

 

 

chilly but frost looks unlikely

 

mist and fog possible due to light winds

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday

 

 

a weak westerly flow still

 

rainfall

 

looks likely we will stay dry but looks like a lot of cloudcover in the afternoon

 

temps

 

chilly start

 

but late pm temps rise to around 10 degrees and likely to feel humid

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

wednesday night

 

 

as far as i go until i see tomorrows output

 

starts dry but goes downhill after

 

will look at the later ones and see what they show

 

back later

Edited February 17, 2014 by john pike

[Jason T]

Three properties evacuated after police receive reports a house is in danger of collapse due to a sinkhole in Magdelen's Road in Ripon

[alexisj9]

 

Three properties evacuated after police receive reports a house is in danger of collapse due to a sinkhole in Magdelen's Road in Ripon

 

Another one.

[john pike]

to all who have have a birthday today

 

i hope you had a great day

 

sorry if not been posting too much recently

 

been busy on my other work

 

i will keep the updates going still

 

regards

 

john

[lassie23]

 

Three properties evacuated after police receive reports a house is in danger of collapse due to a sinkhole in Magdelen's Road in Ripon

 

Someone's car vanished down one the other day