Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[summer blizzard]

GFS18z another poor opener for June. Eventually boots the high east a bit.. to slap a trough to our north west with cool westerlies..

 

[knocker]

Morning campers.

 

What delights from the GFS this morning? The 00z run is actually moving towards the last ECM interpretation for next weekend.

 

The 500mb anomaly has the colder air over Biscay and N. France slipping south and the Azores ridge building and stretching over the UK by Saturday.

 

Regarding the surface synopsis the influence of the low disappears after Friday giving way to HP situated to the north of Scotland leaving the UK in an easterly pretty dry airstream

 

Temps best forgotten about as it certainly will not be basking particularly along the east coast. Winter woolies in Skeggy.

 

 

Edited May 24, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Morning Knock and all, The ECMWF is certainly showing a cool and unsettled turn of the month. With Low Pressure dropping down from the N/W over the UK.

 

Edited May 24, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[IDO]

The GEFS for a while have modelled the trough to stay with us till about the end of the month; some ops have kept it longer, but the GEFS always having a strong cluster bringing in the Azores High around month's end. This ridging has shown up in the op and control this morning; a small dissenting cluster in the GEFS keep the trough a bit longer, but a pressure build is currently the overriding signal:

 

T180 control and op:   

 

The question is what happens next. ECM op have been playing around with the Atlantic Ridge for a couple of days now and today they topple it quickly:

 

 

GEM has a weaker ridge and again the Atlantic, more slowly than ECM, overrides the ridge:

 

 

 

Looks like UKMO at T144 have the Atlantic too strong for the ridge to build in for next weekend: 

 

NOAA 10-14 not yet convinced the Azores will develop over the UK: 

 

So a power struggle to see if we get the initial ridge for D7-8. Certainly the GEFS 0z suite now favoring this, but clearly there are some runs to go before this is resolved let alone how the possible pressure build then develops.

[knocker]

Would you Adam and Eve it? Well yes, all is not lost at Skeggy. Perhaps the ens will sort it out.

 

The ECM ops 500mb anomaly has decided not to like the Azores ridge that much and by Monday has the cold air to the east penetrating the UK giving a completely different scenario than previous and the GFS. One should know better.

 

Thus by Monday a low N. Scotland has taken over bringing strong NW winds over the UK. The evolution can be seen from the charts. I'm not believing a word of it. Tesco beckons.

Edited May 24, 2014 by knocker

[phil nw.]

Morning all,

Yes the upper trough still modeled to remain around for much of next week before signs of it finally weakening.

Stronger hints this morning that yesterdays ECM may have been on to something wrt the Azores High fancying a visit this way.

GFS ens now trending that way as we enter June.

 

 

before then that cool and showery cyclonic easterly to get through

 

 

we can see even by mid-week how unsettled much of the UK and Europe look.

 

so if current modeling is correct we should see a gradual improvement by next week end.

[summer blizzard]

Would you Adam and Eve it? Well yes, all is not lost at Skeggy. Perhaps the ens will sort it out.

 

The ECM ops 500mb anomaly has decided not to like the Azores ridge that much and by Monday has the cold air to the east penetrating the UK giving a completely different scenario than previous and the GFS. One should know better.

 

Thus by Monday a low N. Scotland has taken over bringing strong NW winds over the UK. The evolution can be seen from the charts. I'm not believing a word of it. Tesco beckons.

 

GEM0z does back it as did the GFS18z..

 

[IDO]

Not a great BH weekend for many. Sunday the best day according to the  GEFS: 

 

But today and Monday rather wet; Initially for the SE on Monday, with a trough moving in from the Continent and heading west, according to the fax:

 

 Leading to rainfall totals from GFS by Monday evening: 

 

Nasty.

[knocker]

Quick look at the ECM ens and I think The best idea is to kick the 00z ops into touch.

 

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the models this morning it looks like we could see a ridge of high pressure building later next week though it doesn't hang around too long on this mornings outputs with low pressure to move over the UK at meteorological summer begins

 

 

GEM delays a breakdown to day 10 with fine and bright weather developing for many before the breakdown

 

 

GFS is another which shows the ridge of high pressure developing

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Still disagreement about monday. Metoffice (and BBC) still going for just showers whilst the GFS wants a total washout. I must admit the models (whatever one you looks at) are showing some very heavy rain developing over France and pushing north west. Maybe there is a level of caution on how widespread and heavy the rain will actually be.

Interesting developments later this week. Very dubious about the ECM pulling a UK/Scandi trough later on given the models trends to link the Azores and Scandi highs. Could very easily see a much more settled picture developing if things are favorable.

I must add that I would treat any output removing heights over Scandinavia in a swift manner with a huge pinch of salt. I notice there are mid-range differences between the ECM and GFS ens (ECM follows the op to some extent whilst the GFS keeps heights to the north east for much longer)

Edited May 24, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[TonyH]

Gavin's not posting much so it must be a thoroughly unsettled outlook

Edited May 24, 2014 by Polar Maritime
Please keep personal comment's to yourself, And stick to Model Discussion thanks.

[Bobby]

Looks very wet here and across much of England and Wales on the GFS 06z

 

 

Looking at the models it seems high pressure is struggling to assert itself with troughing always trying to influence our weather.

[Summer Sun]

Its a case of who is going to be wrong for Monday the latest forecast from the met office says "many parts dry and bright, but scattered heavy showers developing. Rain reaching the southeast later on Monday"

 

However GFS has rain from early morning for some in the south and south east lasting all day its not just one run which has shown this either

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Well the 06z gfs shows just low pressure in control right through its run unfortunately, with not even any hints of high pressure in FI    

[ANYWEATHER]

Well the nmm-6 shows cloud and rain pushing into the Southeast early on Bank holiday Monday...

[Milhouse]

Not too bad from the UKMO. Infact most models are showing some sort of drier potential late next week and into the weekend

 

 

 

 

Edited May 24, 2014 by Milhouse

[gottolovethisweather]

Gavin's not posting much so it must be a thoroughly unsettled outlook

 

Is that your valid assessment of the model outputs? Aside from personal jibes against other members I think it would be better for all in here if we stuck to MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION. My personal opinion on things weather-wise is that we need to see some shifting of the block to our East and Northeast and then a developing slow moving Azores HP sat atop the UK scenario as hinted by some outputs might well suffice come early June. Then of course, it'll be a case of how long it'll remain near or over the UK, all pure conjecture at this range. I'll come back and analyse the outputs after these weekend wobbles have gone away. A getting better as the week progresses scenario looks likely IMHO with many waiting until the end of the week to see something relatively calmer. Not before a fair few rumbles of Thunder and deluges have enveloped vast parts of England and Wales beforehand, though.

 

Back to respecting all members please.

Edited May 24, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[draztik]

I keep seeing headlines suggesting heatwave type weather is imminent. Then I look at the models and scratch the head...

Looking at the ens, there's little suggestion the azores will take residence over the Uk anytime soon.

Temps look near average throughout, with the days 10 thru 15 highlighting where the positive anomaly sits, as has been the case the last couple of weeks.

Temp anom ecm

[TonyH]

Is that your valid assessment of the model outputs? Aside from personal jibes against other members I think it would be better for all in here if we stuck to MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION. My personal opinion on things weather-wise is that we need to see some shifting of the block to our East and Northeast and then a developing HP scenario as highlighted by some outputs might well suffice come early June. I'll come back and assess the outputs after these weekend wobbles have gone away. A getting better as the week progresses scenario looks likely IMHO with many waiting until the end of the week to see something relatively calmer. Not before a fair few rumbles of Thunder and deluges have enveloped vast parts of England and Wales beforehand, though.Back to respecting all members please.

No jibe intended, I do respect Gavin, I have noticed though that if our respected member posts less then the models must have a more unsettled flavour to them (i.e. fewer high pressure charts showing). Just an observation, no more no less, and yes trending unsettled much of the week I would say, a chance it dries out with a pressure rise from Friday, this by no means unanimous though and is a long way off! Edited May 24, 2014 by Polar Maritime
Please keep personal observations to yourself, Thanks.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The issue is we've got HP looking to default to lie between Norway and Greenland with the (admittedly weak) jetsream pushed down towards our latitude and beyond. As long as this situation persists, the UK troughing will be perpetuated. It all looks very 2007 to me. Of course things could, and probably will, change. However I think if we're in this position in 2-3 weeks time then early summer pattern has potentially been set.

[Milhouse]

On the face of it this is a promising looking chart with high pressure in the right areas to encourage warmth to build over the UK. Even though low pressure eventually pushes its way through there is the potential for alterations to occur before then. The jet stream is looking rather sluggish so there is the chance that low pressure may hang out in the Atlantic for longer encouraging high pressure to build.

 

Edited May 24, 2014 by Milhouse

[Cheshire Freeze]

On the face of it this is a promising looking chart with high pressure in the right areas to encourage warmth to build over the UK. Even though low pressure eventually pushes its way through there is the potential for alterations to occur before then. The jet stream is looking rather sluggish so there is the chance that low pressure may hang out in the Atlantic for longer encouraging high pressure to build.

 

Look where the jet is...straight through the UK. The higher pressure to the N and E is merely serving to ensure the Azores high can't pull NE across the UK for any great length of time- especially so with its attempted retrogression and tilt towards Greenland. Any firing up of the jet and the Azores high would be blasted even further away. Like you say, the best hope from there would be an LP stall but even that would be a stop gap situation until the troughing won out.

 

There is potential situation whereby the Azores and Scandi high link......however the jet would need to veer well N for this to happen and it requires the jet to ease of sufficiently for the link to occur. You also need to see a +ve NAO pattern emerge with a sharp fall in heights across Greenland.

Edited May 24, 2014 by CreweCold

[phil nw.]

The issue is we've got HP looking to default to lie between Norway and Greenland with the (admittedly weak) jetsream pushed down towards our latitude and beyond. As long as this situation persists, the UK troughing will be perpetuated. It all looks very 2007 to me. Of course things could, and probably will, change. However I think if we're in this position in 2-3 weeks time then early summer pattern has potentially been set.

Yes that's certainly the current setup Crewe.

There is some room for optimism though looking at the GFS06z mean -these 2 images for mean jet pattern and msl pressure next Sat,then following Tues.(day 10)

 

 

The southerly tracking jet weakening and then the Azores high manfully trying to ridge in.

ECM day 10 mean going the same way

 

just moderate height rises around the Uk though so only a gradual improvement from the south west by the looks.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes that's certainly the current setup Crewe.

There is some room for optimism though looking at the GFS06z mean -these 2 images for mean jet pattern and msl pressure next Sat,then following Tues.(day 10)

 

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/master/attachicon.gifjet1.pnghttp:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/master/attachicon.gifjet2.png

 

The southerly tracking jet weakening and then the Azores high manfully trying to ridge in.

ECM day 10 mean going the same way

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/master/attachicon.gifecm500.240.png

 

just moderate height rises around the Uk though so only a gradual improvement from the south west by the looks.

 

Most important thing there....drop in heights around Greenland....