Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[DTHFCJ]

The ECM is an absolute shocker in FI. Northern blocking takes a foothold once more after a slight erosion of it mid run. That's about as bad as it gets for June...

 

Totally agree,pants pants and more...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

  http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

 

o dear

Edited May 25, 2014 by DTHFCJ

[knocker]

Isn't it just. The 500mb anomaly for Tuesday is horrific. A huge pool of cold air over the UK stretching to Canada flanked to east and mid Atlantic by the warmer air. One could say it's a funnel for the cold, very unsettled conditions.

 

So on the surface on Monday there is low pressure to the NE and high to the SW giving strong NW winds over the UK. By Tuesday the HP has retreated a tad leaving a complex area of low pressure over the UK. By Wednesday the high has nudged back with a shallow low in France with northerly winds over the UK but from different origins.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM a lot more progressive with blowing through the Atlantic around day 7, much more so than the GFS and GEM which tends to drag this out and stall low heights near or west of the UK. I would again treat a Scandi trough solution with a lot of scrutiny given recent trends and a lot of longer range forecasts singing from the same hymnsheet.

ECM at day 7

 

GFS ens 

Quite different with progression of the Atlantic low pressure train being much slower. Agrees with the GFS/GEM solutions. 

UKMO on the other hand differs from the lot of them at day 6, trying to squeeze low heights through the gap between the Scandi/Azores high pressure cells.

 

Again one must stress that confidence beyond about 4 days is very low.

Edited May 25, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

Is it fair to call it a Scandi trough though? It appears more extensive to me.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Funny and quite comforting to see a propensity for high latitude blocking to form quite readily as soon as we enter a -QBO. Could be coincidence I suppose. Though I suspect the change over may be a factor.

[johnholmes]

latest thoughts using the anomaly charts, and it adds uncertainty rather than certainty into the 6-15 day period!

 

NoaaNoaa

6-10; Latest from noaa suggests similar ideas re +ve area but actual contours now show a trough into uk, not that different to how ec-gfs showed this morning

8-14 also now has this idea, so both 6-10 and 8-14 noaa have altered towards the ec-gfs idea of this morning

Not very helpful as ec-gfs also changed over 24 hour period, at least all 3 have changed along similar lines but I would want at least 1 more, preferably 2 more, that all 3 show a similar idea before I go with it. Certainly it puts a ? over the noaa previous view of +ve heights and possible slight ridging into the uk area. This might still happen as the +ve heights are shown on all 3 to varying degrees w/sw of the UK.

Interesting viewing for sure for the 6-15 day period.

 

below are the latest anomaly charts from the 3 main centres, not looked at NAEFS, perhaps someone could post their 168h and 240h 500mb anomaly charts for comparison?

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Captain Shortwave]

Funny and quite comforting to see a propensity for high latitude blocking to form quite readily as soon as we enter a -QBO. Could be coincidence I suppose. Though I suspect the change over may be a factor.

I do think this coming winter will be very interesting for coldies... but that is for another thread

GFS FI was interesting tonight, given the current output I would be surprised if we didn't see something like this occurring over the next month or so

I think certain areas will remember what happened that day.

[A.J]

Lots of posts being hidden and binned this evening due to either off topic one liners, personal remarks, and other replies that do not aid the discussion in the slightest. This is the Model Output Discussion thread, nothing more, nothing less.....so, with that in mind, look at the posts that haven't been binned/edited as good examples of what should be posted......cheers

[knocker]

The 12z 8-13 anomaly

Edited May 25, 2014 by knocker

[SMU]

Nothing of 'hot' interest currently-

The scandi high is just set back to far east to support the uk, infact its actual location is allowing the atlantic to slow down as it approaches the uk and then slide south & east

The heat over europe is held in situ as a result.

At least 7-10 days before change is supported...

Still think the 2003 symptoms may well be there - just lurking like the beast from the south!!

[summer blizzard]

Can't say i take Steve's positive view, i see many more avenues to cold than warm.

 

Crewe summed up tonights well when he said "this is about as bad as it gets in June"..

 

[summer blizzard]

I think ECM and the UKMO are being a bit too progressive Summer Blizzard with this scenario. We will have to wait and see if this trend can maintain itself. We also might need snowkings musings for more detail in the set Ups I feel at this present moment of time.

 

GFS18z is only marginally less bad..

 

[draztik]

The latest output from gefs and certainly the ecm control much alike, see conditions deteriorating into mid term. Lower than average heights either to our w/sw shown on both models this evening. A growing trend for our weather to be unsettled into June.

GEFS days 1-16,height anom. Ecm control days 10-15 and gem mean day 10 snapshot indicate this.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I can't see anything at present that suggests a 2003 repeat. I can see where Steve is coming from but there needs to be a trigger to let that 'bottled up heat' flow our way. Just as in many a winter passed (with cold), sometimes that trigger never comes and we sit on the periphery with mild and rain rather than snow and cold. It remains to be seen whether things turn just as bad as the ECM op portrays....there is some good news, the ensemble suite isn't as supportive of a Greenland pressure rise but we'll have to wait and see...

[knocker]

Down these parts this morning the operative word is gloomy. I think this can equally apply to the outlook, probably in spades.

 

The GFS ops upper anomaly for the beginning of next week doesn’t make pleasant viewing. The whole of the north N. Atlantic is dominated by cold air with a deep pool north Canada and another east of Greenland which is completely influencing the UK. The intense warm air is away to the NE and the mid Atlantic higher heights are diminished and forced south and west. It’s difficult to see exactly what is going to break this pattern but at the moment a build up of heights from the SW would appear the best bet.

 

The 200mb contour field shows a similar pattern with the cold air (that is well established throughout the troposphere) also running Canada/UK with the warmer air pushed south with the jet stream in between but looping south below the cold air in mid Atlantic to end up in northern Spain.

 

Surface analysis for Monday and Tuesday. Azores ridge mid Atlantic with low pressure between Greenland and Iceland with rather importantly a shallow low over the UK bringing wet weather to all.

 

Temps fairly irrelevant but around the low 60s. Welcome to sunny June but things can only get better.

[bluearmy]

Repeating patterns seems to be the watchword. A west russian ridge looks to be a semi permanent feature for the time being, question is - what will give way first? This ridge or the azores one. If the latter, then i can see steves thoughts coming closer as the pattern could retrogress somewhat via a w of iberian trough. However, i could see this lasting quite a while yet before a different background pattern takes over and i havent a clue what that could be.

[knocker]

Well at least I'm not alone. Looking at the ECM ops the upper air is similar to the GFS. I'm still favouring a possible build up of the Azores ridge as the Russin retreats to the east.

 

Surface analysis gives a touch more prominence to the Azores high but the UK still comes under the influence of the northern trough.

 

 

[IDO]

In the short term -  some respite from Thursday with respect to rain. The next 3 days bring the majority of totals compared to GFS 8 day totals. 

 

Next 3 days:   8D total: 

 

This due to 2-3 days of the ridging of the Azores High: T96: T162: 

 

ECM op more progressive with the return of lower heights, T144: 

 

GEM in between: 

 

So as usual with higher and lower pressure battles there is an issue re timing but synoptically the models in broad agreement.

 

The latest NOAA 8-14D sums it up well:  

 

No sign of any Summer weather as we head into June. The AH in its place, lower heights over the Med and the Russian high in situ; no sign of it edging west/SW yet. So no signal for pending settled warm spell. The clusters on the GEFS show that there is good agreement of a repeating pattern; the UK trough based, squeezed between the two anomalous highs to our NE/E and SW:

 

 

ECM and GEM also going with this outlook (D10 charts):  

 

At least we have the World Cup to look forward to.

[Captain Shortwave]

Currently at the moment the UKMO looks the most positive about next weekend

Much more significant Azore ridge compared to the others.

 

Further out and the GFS ens again suggesting no real longwave pattern change

 

 

again is the ECM being too progressive with developing low heights more generally over north west Europe. 

Edited May 26, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Both GFS and ECMWF continue to show a very unsettled cool/wet turn of Month from the N/W this morning.

 

[Summer Sun]

In the shorter term UKMO is looking much more positive for a settled spell to develop with the change starting on Friday

 

Edited May 26, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

I'm much in agreement with PM. Looking at the ECM ens 500 mean anomaly for next week and the end of the run.

 

Abandon hope all ye who enter here.

Edited May 26, 2014 by knocker

[bluearmy]

I suspect that even the promising looking ulmo at day 6 would look poor by day 8.

[Polar Maritime]

Think bluearmy its very hard to tell to be honest as the AO and NAO are in actual fact pretty neutral, maybe a bit negative but not by much.Need to look at things with maximum caution at this stage methinks.

 

 

But closer to home.. With nearly all Models pointing towards unsettled weather after an initial push of Heights towards the end of the week which will only feed Low Pressure systems diving S/E, It's difficult to give maximum caution,  As this pattern has been the growing trend over the past few days.

Edited May 26, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Polar Maritime]

See what the 6-15 day met office update delivers as that's pretty reliable as a rule.

 

As long as we keep to Model Discussion in here thanks, There are other threads to discuss the METO outlook.

Edited May 26, 2014 by Polar Maritime