Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[SP1986]

Yes the 06z operational needs to be ignored. It's probably a case of the GFS struggling with the pattern.. ECM always seems to have have a better handle of any type of continental blocking. I think therefore we can be pretty sure the ECM has this nailed on.. the GFS will eventually come on board with the likes of ECM, but we know what the GFS is like for playing catch up (and it's ensuing stubborn-ness)

[knocker]

I'm not that sure the GFS ens mean is that far out of kilter and the jet on the ops is split. One section running south of the cold air over Greenland and the other into the Med. with a wrap around the upper low.which is west of Spain. it's the position of this low on the ops which is possibly out of kilter.

 

[summer blizzard]

I'm not that sure the GFS ens mean is that far out of kilter and the jet on the ops is split. One section running south of the cold air over Greenland and the other into the Med. with a wrap around the upper low.which is west of Spain. it's the position of this low on the ops which is possibly out of kilter.

 

If anything that looks worse, clear indication of the sub-tropical jet taking over will cripple the Azores High.

[049balt]

If anything that looks worse, clear indication of the sub-tropical jet taking over will cripple the Azores High.

The one thing most bad wet Summers have in common is a strong Southerly jet and a very mobile Atlantic, it appears to be a more blocked scenario recently that has the potential to go either way, a small change can make a big difference.

[Summer Sun]

No great surprise to see GFS producing a more unsettled run this afternoon though it may be over cooking the low when comparing it to UKMO

 

 

UKMO also shows low pressure starting to move in but those in the east do hold on the best of the weather

 

[draztik]

Gfs smells the coffee, unsettled and more ecm like into week 2

Gfs t168

[Captain Shortwave]

Ok fair point to those earlier, the GFS has lost the plot and is simply chucking darts at it's ensemble suite.

UKMO, hmm

Stalling front territory here, East looks warm and bright, west is cooler with showers and central areas are jut plain wet.

 

BTW the GFS does not look like the ECM from this morning

Errr.... nope  

The warm air gets into the UK into week 2 as well as the low sinks southwards and then rotates around bringing thundery downpours and above average temperatures.

 

The models simply do not have a clue about next week.

Edited May 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Yes gone are the Height rises from the S/W, No real surprise there.. Let's see where we are after the 11th on the run, Then again let's not, more cool and unsettled weather showing into the run from the North.. Jet well South of the UK. Ties in with today's meto outook pretty well.

 

Edited May 28, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[SP1986]

GFS at least gets some logic about it, and brings in a more unsettled regime, which could be with us for a while. I certainly don't necessarily buy the warming up scenario, it would be far easier for the high to topple and allow in an Atlantic onslaught. So in effect after this weekend, it's a cold and wet outlook, more especially for the west.

[draztik]

Neither forecast looks particularly appetizing for early June, there's no escaping that. And as we can see from gfs fi, the low when In situ has no where to go. A synoptic pattern not many will be cheering for.

[draztik]

The Canadian also continues the poor run from this afternoon

150/192/240

Looking like we may have to make the most of the upcoming weekend.

[knocker]

Looking at the last two GFS ops runs you can note the significant difference with the normalised 500mb anomaly by just looking at 18z on Wednesday. The 06z had a trough roughly orientated SW/NE over the UK with a shallow low just west of Ireland and the Atlantic high adjacent. At 12z the trough has deepened significantly with a quite intense low 540dm in same position with the orientation N/S. Thus also realigning the ridge.

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS at day 6

 

UKMO at the same time

 

GEM

 

Considering all 3 models show different solutions over this side of the world, then how can one come up with a credible conclusion on what we will see when 2 (if not all 3) are going to be wrong?

Low heights look to set up just west/south west of the UK, considering this is still 6/7 days away, again things can change dramatically, especially in a complex set up like this.

[049balt]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

Edited May 28, 2014 by Polar Maritime
A little more substance than just a link would be appreciated. Thanks.

[draztik]

Which is why we should stick with the ecm ensembles post day 5. And what are those ens telling us... Let's go with unsettled!? Its fine to look at the models with a half glass full outlook, but let's try and be realistic. It doesn't look like being heatwave like, as James Madden is continuing to run with for instance. I think we can be assured of that.

[summer blizzard]

GFS tries to resist heights over Greenland for a while but eventually fails.

 

GEM is pretty bad but in line with this morning.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

It's all gone Pete Tong

Oh well, time to buy a canoe. 

Edited May 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

The GFS 500 anomaly edging towards the last ECM

 

[phil nw.]

It's all gone Pete Tong

Oh well, time to buy a canoe.

Just thinking Captain how the Canadian part of the vortex kept feeding the jet towards us last Winter and looking at the NH view very little has changed other than a weaker version.

 

 

the lows spinning off that region coming se.

Any attempt of a building Azores High is scuppered until that energy train somehow is cut off or diverted upstream of which there is no sign yet.

Edited May 28, 2014 by phil nw.

[Captain Shortwave]

Just thinking Captain how the Canadian part of the vortex kept feeding the jet towards us last Winter and looking at the NH view very little has changed other than a weaker version.

 

 

 

the lows spinning off that region coming se.

Any attempt of a building Azores High is scuppered until that energy train somehow is cut off or diverted upstream of which there is no sign yet.

There was certainly a hope (at least from my view at least) that we could have pulled the pattern west enough to get at least some of the UK back into the warmer continental air. But as the ECM shows, if anything the Azores ridge is breaking down quicker on this afternoons runs which pretty much ends that. I certainly hope this pattern doesn't persist for too long as again flooding could become an issue in many places.

If there was a silver lining it would be that the majority of the rainfall would probably come from frequently heavy downpours (as was the case in 2012) so at least there is plenty of scope for those who do like thunderstorms.

Of course typically the ECM will probably throw a day 10 plume tease now.

Edited May 28, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

JMA going for warmer easterlies at t192 most persistent rain would be in the south more showery the further north you are, not often you find Spain and Portugal seeing some of the coolest weather in summer

 

 

ECM on the other hand keeps us cooler

 

 

Still unsettled at t216 but it looks like the block to our east moves further west as such the 850's rise

 

 

t240 continues to show pressure rising from the east as such the 850's continue to rise for the south especially as we begin to pull in a warmer south easterly flow

 

Edited May 28, 2014 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014052812/ECH1-240.GIF?28-0

ECM 240 shows the first kernals of what I have mentioned over the last couple of days

 

Heights rising over Europe & the heat bubble building - slowly moving North & west.

 

S

[Milhouse]

ECM does look promising in FI. It does seem that after the weekends half hearted attempt at an Azores ridge we should be looking to the SE for the next warm spell. If it comes off as the ECM is suggesting it could bring a rapid rise in temperatures.

[knocker]

The GFS was showing this as well the earlier run. Meanwhile..................................

 

Edited May 28, 2014 by knocker

[damianslaw]

ECM does look promising in FI. It does seem that after the weekends half hearted attempt at an Azores ridge we should be looking to the SE for the next warm spell. If it comes off as the ECM is suggesting it could bring a rapid rise in temperatures.

 

 

Much will depend on the positioning of the trough, but given the overall northern hemispheric state, I agree the most likely direction for warmer conditions would be from the SE if the trough tilts itself on a NW-SE axis but on a more westerly trajectory allowing heights to our NE to build in closer to our shores pulling in the warmer SE feed. However, for a change to significantly drier settled conditions to occur would rely on a  weak jet, and there is no sign of energy dissipating soon, it would be a very fine line between a warm continental feed and a cool NE/E feed as we have now with heights to the NE forced to advect NW.

 

No sign of the azores high settling into a favourable summer position anytime soon - our best summers have generally featured an azores high in a favourable position., but plenty of time yet, late June/early July tends to be the pivotal period for the summer and is when you want the azores high to be positioned close to our SW shores.