Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Polar Maritime]

isnt that what steve murr was on about? (not read most posts recently) wasnt he thinking the high might retrogress westward. that would be a good call IF this occurs.

 

Yes it was, And as you say a good call "if" it transpires.

Edited May 27, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[summer blizzard]

isnt that what steve murr was on about? (not read most posts recently) wasnt he thinking the high might retrogress westward. that would be a good call IF this occurs.

 

That 'if' is at day 16.

 

To get there we have to go through this..

 

 

[Cloud 10]

12z GEM at 144hrs.

 

At least the Azores high finds the output amusing.  

 

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS mean at day 7

Not making any comment as it's a close call. One thing can be said that the pattern for next week has corrected a long way back westwards in the last couple of days. 48 hours ago we saw low heights across the UK and into Scandinavia. Now we have a very strong ridge developing east of the UK with a trough developing just west of the UK.

Edited May 27, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[049balt]

GFS mean at day 7

Not making any comment as it's a close call. One thing can be said that the pattern for next week has corrected a long way back westwards in the last couple of days. 48 hours ago we saw low heights across the UK and into Scandinavia. Now we have a very strong ridge developing east of the UK with a trough developing just west of the UK.

At least if this scenario develops we would be back to more normal rainfall rather than the drenching we are getting at the moment

[draztik]

A little perspective

At day 10, gfs records a 0.297 rating in terms of verifying. By day 16... yeah! Best we stick with the ens, ecm ens if we try and look long term.

[Chris K]

That 'if' is at day 16.

 

To get there we have to go through this..

 

 

 

Good point but the charts you posted are at day 10? Still rather unreliable in my opinion and likely to further change over the coming days. It would not take much to see some areas have completely different surface conditions, depending on the Low pressure's movements and where it actually ends up.

Edited May 27, 2014 by Chris K

[johnholmes]

GFS mean at day 7

 Now we have a very strong ridge developing east of the UK with a trough developing just west of the UK.

 

I would hardly call the chart you show exhibiting 'a very strong ridge', the main ridge is west of the UK to my eyes?

[johnholmes]

isnt that what steve murr was on about? (not read most posts recently) wasnt he thinking the high might retrogress westward. that would be a good call IF this occurs.

 

where on the chart you quote from mushy is the retrogression showing please?

[SMU]

isnt that what steve murr was on about? (not read most posts recently) wasnt he thinking the high might retrogress westward. that would be a good call IF this occurs.

 

Indeed- however we have got to get through 7 -10 days of rubbish before then...............

 

you can get VERY hot weather in a negative NAO as long as the core of the stationary trough is far enough away from the SW of the UK- it does however aid advection in a SE flow

S

Edited May 27, 2014 by Steve Murr

[ANYWEATHER]

I would hardly call the chart you show exhibiting 'a very strong ridge', the main ridge is west of the UK to my eyes?

Fair comment, I think we can say on that chart that the uk is under the influence of a slack area of pressure. The main core of high pressure is about 1,500 miles to the Northeast and Southwest...of the Uk 

Edited May 27, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[Summer Sun]

Friday to Sunday looks relatively settled and much warmer especially in any sunshine before a breakdown early next week if ECM is correct

 

 

Edited May 27, 2014 by Summer Sun

[draztik]

Truly shocking last few frames from ecmwf; unsettled and cool from around day 7 thru 10. Tho a pleasant enough weekend as already suggested! But week 2 looks pretty awful, depending on your pref.

Ecm t168, 240

[knocker]

The 12z ECM ops is still running with same story as the last run for the middle and end of next week.

 

The 500mb anomaly has a deep trough running SE/NW with a centre just NW of Ireland and flanked by the warm air on either side. The GFS ens has a similar set up but the trough is less intense.

 

The surface analysis on Tuesday and Wednesday has a complex area of low pressure over the UK and to the NW with the warm air to the SW in mid Atlantic. By Thursday and Friday the low pressure area has deepened to a significant depression centred over Ireland. I'm not going to speculate on this until I've phoned a friend and seen the ens later.

 

EDIT.

Sorry draztik I hadn't looked at the previous post..

Edited May 27, 2014 by knocker

[ANYWEATHER]

I think we can say that gfs and ecm show unsetteled  weather albeit the occasional spells of fine weather, normal British weather....    

[Summer Sun]

It doesn't get much worse for early summer than what ECM is showing tonight, then again no 2 runs are the same for next week at the moment, this morning we had warm easterly winds from the 4th tonight we have a deep low

 

[knocker]

It doesn't get much worse for early summer than what ECM is showing tonight, then again no 2 runs are the same for next week at the moment, this morning we had warm easterly winds from the 4th tonight we have a deep low

 

 

 

I'm not sure it's entirely fair to say that SS. The ECM on the 00z run produced a deep low which caused some speculation. The 12z is not quite as deep on the last run and further north.

Edited May 27, 2014 by knocker

[draztik]

EDIT.

Sorry draztik I hadn't looked at the previous post..

That's quite okay knock! I always think the wxbell charts look much better in all their Technicolor glory! Like you i'll be keeping an eye on the ens!

Its not all doom and gloom tho, as the CFS indicating a significant warming as we head into early June and beyond..

[Captain Shortwave]

That's quite okay knock! I always think the wxbell charts look much better in all their Technicolor glory! Like you i'll be keeping an eye on the ens!

Its not all doom and gloom tho, as the CFS indicating a significant warming as we head into early June and beyond..

So are the GFS ensembles. But of course at that far out there are no guarantees.

 

The ECM tonight was poor. that jet streak which pushes low pressure south east towards the UK at day 7 is not what we need. A slacker jet will bring a bit more amplification so hoping the models are over-doing the jet again.

[draztik]

This is the graphic for days 3 thru 7 from CFS. Which clearly won't happen, as that's a full blown European heatwave. CFS on WxBell clearly experiencing issues!,apologies.

[summer blizzard]

Another poor run to open June, i don't see the pattern changing quickly.

 

 

[knocker]

Well the ECM has been pushing the jet along this path for a couple of runs.

 

The ens tonight is following pretty close to the ops with the low developing to the cold air side of the jet. Not a pretty site.

 

[draztik]

A poor outlook for early June, as the ecm ensembles back its op.

T168,192,240 ecm ens mean

[summer blizzard]

Well the ECM has been pushing the jet along this path for a couple of runs.

 

The ens tonight is following pretty close to the ops with the low developing to the cold air side of the jet. Not a pretty site.

 

Looks like that high off Newfoundland is the only thing slowing the Jet enough to avoid a raging jet slamming into Europe.

[damianslaw]

The here and now first and for a long long time we have a deep seated easterly from a cold source with associated frontal action, if this was winter - a snow cold lovers dream - couldn't ask for better synoptics, alas it is late May, and not great for anyone taking a break on the east coast.

 

The models are suggesting a drying up pattern by the of the week as the trough moves to the SW - not often we see a slow moving westward moving trough, but we have quite cool air to its rear, temperatures by the weekend average/slightly above at best, but under sunshine it will feel summer like.

 

Into next week, mmm not an encouraging set up to the start to June, strong heights to our west and south west and to our NE, the trough and jet have only one place to go and that is to settle on top of us - synoptics reminiscent of the worst conditions of summers 07-12. Still it is only early June, and like early December the start to the new season rarely plays itself out for the rest of the season (last winter mind an exception!).