Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble showing pressure beginning to rise slowly from the east from day 8

 

 

850's slowly rise as well

 

 

Nothing overly settled on the horizon after this weekend for now but we could have something warmer developing if the block to our east can move close enough

 

 

[knocker]

The ECM EPS is more or less supporting the ops and purely out of interest a little further afield.

 

[bluearmy]

The midday suites havent dimmed the possibility of the trough backing far enough west though the trough being too close remains the favoured result. at the moment, i am thinking the trough getting in days 6 to 8 and then slowly being pushed wsw thereafter as the sceuro ridge attempts to retrogress.

[draztik]

Alternatively, we could see something more akin to...

Ecm contol height anom d5-10 10-15.

While we should stick to the ens mean this far out, the control shows us another possible outcome. Either way, interesting model watching ahead!

[knocker]

The midday suites havent dimmed the possibility of the trough backing far enough west though the trough being too close remains the favoured result. at the moment, i am thinking the trough getting in days 6 to 8 and then slowly being pushed wsw thereafter as the sceuro ridge attempts to retrogress.

 

Is the jet stream position conducive to the scenario of much retrogression ba.?

[johnholmes]

The midday suites havent dimmed the possibility of the trough backing far enough west though the trough being too close remains the favoured result. at the moment, i am thinking the trough getting in days 6 to 8 and then slowly being pushed wsw thereafter as the sceuro ridge attempts to retrogress.

 

I would put the odds on that ba as less than 20% in the 15 day time frame and perhaps no more than 35-40% by day 20?

my view only and it could turn out a load of rubbish from me!

The anomaly charts from NOAA out to 14 days show little suggestion of that although I may be putting too much emphasis on the trough and not enough on the +ve heights shown into northern Scotland, so maybe best I add another 10% to each shown above!

Interesting to see how the 2nd week of June ends up.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Some of these charts are quite demoralising !! GFS looking similar to June 2012, ECM throwing a glimmer of hope for some warmth, overall, looking grim!

[knocker]

A look at the GFS ens anomoaly for the 18z run.

 

Not quite as bullish on the 7th and note at the end it has the Russian/Scandinavian high retrogressed so far it it has taken over the UK with the trough consigned to mid Atlantic. I will believe this when I see it.

Edited May 29, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Quick look at the 00z GFS ops The progression of the 500mb anomaly Thursday through Saturday. Thursday the deep upper trough centred over Biscay and Spain with another area near Iceland. Between the ridging from the Atlantic and the east is showing more emphasis. This continues to progress and by Saturday/Sunday is a affecting all of the UK with a deep trough now in mid Atlantic. Later on in the run, by the 12th high pressure from the east is dominating the UK and the scenario that has been around for so long is transformed.

 

Be interesting to see how this plays with the ens and the ECM.

Edited May 29, 2014 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Knock, Once again the GFS is playing with a warm Easterly this morning into the very later frames, Still a lot of water to run under the bridge yet though.. Literally.

 

Edited May 29, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

Not a lot of agreement between the models, even at 5 or 6 days out. The 4 main models (ECM/GEM/UKMO/GFS) seem to have their own ideas and are seemingly sticking to them. The fact that the GFS shows rain affecting all areas this Sunday whilst the other models show a mainly fine and dry day under a ridge of high pressure says it all.

The GFS/ECM/GEM all do show the eventual backing west of the trough which allows heights to build quickly over Europe along with the heat. But that is a long way off and the evolution for next week is a long way from sorted. It does look like there will be rain or showers at times next week though whatever the evolution turns out to be.

Edited May 29, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

Well looking at the ECM ops for the end of next week suffice it to say belay that last pipe.A huge cold pool in the eastern Atlantic. case of waiting I feel but see what the EPS has to say. At least it's not boring.

Edited May 29, 2014 by knocker

[IDO]

Broad agreement up till Sunday that there will be a lull in the Atlantic as the Siberian and NE Canadian upper lows interact. This allows the ridge from the Azores to briefly visit our shores. Timing issues to how quick the polar low splits again and re ignites the Atlantic flow:

 

GFS the most progressive: 

 

That flow heads towards the UK and this is where the models are struggling. The Euro trough has no room at the inn and cannot dig further east so where does that energy go? Initially all three main models park the upper low over the UK. GFS keeps it there for three days (west based) allowing the Russian high to ridge west and heights rise in Scandi, this squeezes the trough and further energy now digs into the mid-Atlantic:

 

 We get an Atlantic trough, the AH is pushed NE/E and pressure rises in our locale.

 

GEM also cannot send the renewed Atlantic energy into the Euro trough so sends it S/SW and displaces the Azores High, replacing it with a trough and its ridge is further west towards Greenland:

 

 

ECM does what it does when it has no idea where the flow will go, that is to cut off the upper low and flatten the pattern:  

 

 

Looking at the GEFS it is clear that is has no idea how to deal with this fluid situation and the op has very little support. But there seems to be no strong cluster on how this will develop with ECM and GEM variations as well as timing differences. I suspect GEM & ECM have the same problem resolving this, so more runs needed.

[knocker]

The ECM EPS is sticking to it's guns re. the end of next week with cold pool still dominating. A quick look through the looking glass and not a huge change with the warm air to east remaning just that. Again the twin jet with the northern section wrapped around the upper low.

Edited May 29, 2014 by knocker

[carinthian]

 Well my visit to blighty  is shortly to come to an end. Was frozen at Hove watching the cricket last week and again at Old Trafford yesterday. Has been miserable for the most part on the South Coast . The weather over much of Europe has been unsettled as well especially cold and wet in Germany. The models continue to show a cold pool in the vicinity of West Europe and bodes well for a continuation of showers or storms fairly widely . The Balkan states have had a good battering of them these past few weeks.

 Looking forward to returning back to the mountains, hopefully to get warmer, but have a feeling summer is going to be a slow starter there as well.

 C

[draztik]

^{a really dreadful set of ECM ensembles this morning; it appears anything remotely settled is post day 10. So for the time being, the trough appears to win out; CFS ens heading the same way.}

 

^{days 5-10 height anom /cfs ens}

Edited May 29, 2014 by Polar Maritime
Just to tone the font size down a little.

[Tim M]

The Met O were predicting a decent weekend for me in Mansfield just a few days ago, now it is rain all the way Sunday. Forecasted better weather for today not right, and suggestions of sunshine Friday/Saturday also now gone.

Looking at all the models, none of them seem to be close to the detail at beyond 24/36hrs. 

The outputs this morning suggest to my very amateur, untrained eye, that we might not see the sun in Mansfield for many days yet.

[knocker]

A quick look at the 06z for the weekend.

 

Quite warm especially on Sunday apart from the west on Sun.and Monday and apart from Saturday quite cloudy.

 

Dry Saturday, rain in Ireland, NW and Scotland Sunday and general rain in England on Monday.

[knocker]

The GFS ens 500mb anomaly for the end of next week is now following the last ECM EFS.

Edited May 29, 2014 by knocker

[johnholmes]

re the post by knocker

I really cannot see the upper air pattern being any different to what it shows for 6/7-12-14 days, that is the main feature being the trough=changeable/unsettled and on the cool side away from any longer spells of sunshine in lucky places. By the end of that period then it may well be that the ridge shown to the NE MAY become more dominant.

Edited May 29, 2014 by johnholmes

[summer blizzard]

Another broadly poor set of models for June with a stagnant trough to the south west being the form horse and as such probably very wet (GFS has another funky scenario). The problem to me appears to be what happens over Greenland. The GFS runs always seem to prefer to lower heights there in FI while ECWMF and GEM seem to be much more bullish. Indeed the GEM scenario this morning is an idea one in winter as the high moves west over Greenland and the trough drops over Scandinavia. Needless to say that if that scenario happens you may be hearing the phrase "summer is over".

 

[knocker]

re the post by knocker

I really cannot see the upper air pattern being any different to what it shows for 6/7-12-14 days, that is the main feature being the trough=changeable/unsettled and on the cool side away from any longer spells of sunshine in lucky places. By the end of that period then it may well be that the ridge shown to the NE MAY become more dominant.

 

The GFS seems to be possible taking that view John. but as you frequently correctly point out it's a long way off.

Edited May 29, 2014 by knocker

[phil nw.]

As feared the little break in the unsettled weather due from tomorrow looks all to brief.

The fax for Sunday shows the ridge already being pushed away by the approaching low pressure from the nw with it's attendant fronts already into the west.

 

 

rain coming through for many by late Sunday with the se hanging on to the best conditions until last.

Not a great outlook then for the rest of next week-the gefs 06z pattern pretty conclusive for Thursday next week as an example.

 

the upper cold pool somewhere around the UK with rather cool and showery conditions.

The heat along with the upper ridge still away east where some areas will see temperatures well above average.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Wow, the angle of that jet....

 

 

Resultant synoptic situation....

 

 

By 168 the sheer amount of N blocking looks like quite a formidable force to me

 

Edited May 29, 2014 by CreweCold

[Captain Shortwave]

Wow, the angle of that jet....

 

 

Resultant synoptic situation....

 

UKMO very similar (good grief cross model agreement)

 

So it looks like a fine weekend then a breakdown on Monday, followed by the weather falling off the proverbial cliff.

Oh how we long for a set up like this in the winter.