Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Cheshire Freeze]

UKMO very similar (good grief cross model agreement)

 

So it looks like a fine weekend then a breakdown on Monday, followed by the weather falling off the proverbial cliff.

Oh how we long for a set up like this in the winter.

 

This is some Greenland high for June...

 

 

This next chart really is a stunner (for all the wrong reasons for some people)....but as a weather enthusiast...wow

 

Edited May 29, 2014 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

Even out to day 10,11 & 12 it remains very unsettled best make the most of this drier spell

 

 

GEM on the other hand is trying its best to get the block to our east closer to us during the 2nd half of next week in turn temperatures would soon respond especially in any sun with the rain becoming confined to the west

 

Edited May 29, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Evening thunder]

Another broadly poor set of models for June with a stagnant trough to the south west being the form horse and as such probably very wet (GFS has another funky scenario). The problem to me appears to be what happens over Greenland. The GFS runs always seem to prefer to lower heights there in FI while ECWMF and GEM seem to be much more bullish. Indeed the GEM scenario this morning is an idea one in winter as the high moves west over Greenland and the trough drops over Scandinavia. Needless to say that if that scenario happens you may be hearing the phrase "summer is over".

 

 

 

Well that would be a particularly ridiculous phrase to hear whoever it was coming from. 

 

 

The ECM ensembles don't look particularly cold at day 10 (on the 00z at least):

 

Does seem to be hints of the trough backing west slightly.. possibly a mix of warmer plumes and cool scenarios making up that intermediate mean 850hpa temperature. Likely still unsettled there though, but that's not a disaster for me at least (admittedly I will be in the SE which would be one of the better off regions there)

 

If it was winter people would be complaining how the trough to the west ruins it with a west based -ve NAO.

Edited May 29, 2014 by Evening thunder

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looking at how the various output is evolving, I think June has the potential to be a seriously wet month. Heat building out east with a lingering cold pool to our general west. The UK could very well see itself sat between with most of us needing a canoe...It might not happen like this but there looks to be a real chance at present.

[Captain Shortwave]

The next step next week is whether the developing trough gets cut off by heights building around it, if you can get the low cut off, it will sink south westwards and allow heat to push north west towards the UK. GEM gets this done.

Temperatures in the East pushing the mid-high 20s with plenty of action of a thundery nature as the cool Atlantic air and the hot continental air collide. One good thing is with such a substantial heat block developing, this should back westwards as the low retreats.

Still in the end there is a lot of uncertainty going forward but the models seem to have things sussed to about Wednesday now.

Edited May 29, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

Well that would be a particularly ridiculous phrase to hear whoever it was coming from. 

 

 

 

 

 

.... you mean like it was in 07,08,12?...

[phil nw.]

Let's stick to discussions around the current charts please all-plenty of other threads for looking back or views about the coming Summer.

Thankyou kindly. . 

[Uncle_Barty]

Well that would be a particularly ridiculous phrase to hear whoever it was coming from. 

 

 

 

Not so much "Summer is over", daft statement to make on May 29th, but certainly "on hold indefinitely" from the current output.

 

The sheer amount of northern blocking being modelled has all the hallmarks of a washout summer from recent times about it.

BUT

I seem to recall that we were having a similar discussion this time last year, and for a time the model output looked pretty pessimistic, with plenty of northern blocking/NW Euro trough. but as we all remember, it did turn around fairly swiftly with an OK June in the end.

 

Let's hope we are looking at rather different output a week from now.......

Edited May 29, 2014 by Uncle_Barty

[Summer Sun]

Pretty good agreement from the models for things to turn more unsettled for the first half of next week with low pressure dominating

 

 

For the second half of the week we do have hints from some of the models that pressure could start and rise ECM is showing this again tonight

 

Edited May 29, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Interesting ECM

Note that little ridge in the Atlantic, that could come in handy to slow the upstream low and back the pattern westwards

 

T192, a lot better

Ridge building close to the south east of the UK, expect a very tasty last two frames.

 

If the ECM was right then that weekend would be very warm with thundery showers in the west. I would definitely take that.

Edited May 29, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Much better end to ECM this evening with the trough backing west allowing a south to south easterly flow to develop

 

 

Warm / very warm flow  could be good news for those of us who like thunderstorms

Edited May 29, 2014 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014052912/ECH1-192.GIF?29-0

 

Yesss trough easing back west- looks like a direct southerly flow at 216!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Much better end to ECM this evening with the trough backing west allowing a southerly flow to develop

 

 

That looks like it has the potential to turn quite thundery. That'll do. Can't see the HP winning out but a warm and thundery flow would certainly be interesting.

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM ends with LP looking to undercut a warm plume.....

 

 

High pressure building over the top of the LP and the end game would be a pressure rise over Greenland but could be interesting getting there if ECM is correct this evening.

[bluearmy]

24 hours later and I'm content with my thoughts from last night.

Still the outsider but definitely coming up on the rails

[Frank Trough]

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2014052912/ECH1-192.GIF?29-0

 

Yesss trough easing back west- looks like a direct southerly flow at 216!!

 

don't be ridiculous. Summer's over. Haven't you been reading this thread?!

 

you couldn't make it up! post after post of doom and the ECM produces this:

 

 

What chances, i wonder? The GEM is close to not being that awfuk tonight as well. The GFS definitely doing its best to get contigency planners picking up the phone, though.

 

All is not quite lost yet.......

[Cheshire Freeze]

don't be ridiculous. Summer's over. Haven't you been reading this thread?!

 

you couldn't make it up! post after post of doom and the ECM produces this:

 

 

What chances, i wonder? The GEM is close to not being that awfuk tonight as well. The GFS definitely doing its best to get contigency planners picking up the phone, though.

 

All is not quite lost yet.......

 

Look, even if the ECM is on the money, it's warmer- yes but drier- no. Infact there's a lot heavy thundery rain knocking about across a lot of Europe on that chart and for parts of the UK it would probably be wetter than the GFS solution which had less warmth/energy in the mix (GFS wasn't that wet). The core of heights transferring N&W with time.

Edited May 29, 2014 by CreweCold

[Frank Trough]

Look, even if the ECM is on the money, it's warmer- yes but drier- no. Infact there's a lot heavy thundery rain knocking about across a lot of Europe on that chart and for parts of the UK it would probably be wetter than the GFS solution which had less warmth/energy in the mix (GFS wasn't that wet). The core of heights transferring N&W with time.

could it not get a bit further west? (i'm clutching at straws really - at least warm and thundery might feel a bit better?!). I have the inflatable kayak primed and ready to go, don't worry.

[Cheshire Freeze]

could it not get a bit further west? (i'm clutching at straws really - at least warm and thundery might feel a bit better?!). I have the inflatable kayak primed and ready to go, don't worry.

 

Oh yes, certainly an improvement on the GFS which would be primarily showery and cool. However, it's that situation I was talking about earlier with the continental warmth knuckling up to the cooler Atlantic sourced airmass. It's situations like that which can, locally or on a wider scale, produce torrents of rainfall during the warm season.

[ANYWEATHER]

Come on folks, any  very warm weather is all in the far out reaches of never ,never land. Yes Im sure it will visit us at some point, this Summer, but at the moment the models in the week ahead look cool and unsettled Unfortunately.... It was only ten days ago ,the models were hinting on some warmth this week from the Continent, but in reality, nothing like that happened! Even in FI terroritry  there is some fleeting glimpses of hot weather from the continent ,but it stays unsettled with thundery downpours......    

Edited May 29, 2014 by ANYWEATHER

[mountain shadow]

Pressure building South from the North looking the form horse for mid month.

Meto long range would concur.

[knocker]

Looking at the ECM EPS and the GFS can't see the incursion of warm air from the east anytime soon.

 

[bluearmy]

Looking at the ECM EPS and the GFS can't see the incursion of warm air from the east anytime soon.

thats cos you're looking at the output knocker.  it never verifies beyond day 6 so you need to feel for where its really going. hardly scientific and often wrong but always a smug feeling when the next set of runs head the way you thought they might. (and the opposite to smug when they dont) !

[Captain Shortwave]

The 8C isotherm is brushing the south east corner into week 2 according to the ECM ens. Suggests a split where some members continue with troughing in the UK vicinity and another cluster which bring much drier and warmer conditions. Still all to play for, hopefully the models might edge the pattern westwards in future runs. It would not take much to put us into a much warmer and drier scenario.

[summer blizzard]

Interesting twist. I'll remain cautious for now however.