Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[phil nw.]

The Russian block seems to be at it's peak by day 5 on tonights ens charts and then starts to wane .

The w. euro trough still looks like our main influence for at least next week.

Longer term just a hint in later ens frames of the  remaining Canadian vortex weakening and the energy draining the lows this way diminishing.

Logically if this happens look for the upper trough receding nw and thicknesses rising from the south or south east but that is probably around 2 weeks away.

Edited May 29, 2014 by phil nw.

[damianslaw]

ECM ends with LP looking to undercut a warm plume.....

 

 

High pressure building over the top of the LP and the end game would be a pressure rise over Greenland but could be interesting getting there if ECM is correct this evening.

 

 

This is a very plausible set up - however, as you say heights would transfer to the NW and we would quickly be in a cool N/NE flow again, so a very short and probably thundery interlude from the S/SE - no building block for a sustained warm settled outlook for the foreseeable future, energy from the jet needs to wane substantially for that to occur- enabling the azores high to come into play, it is always the key player for creating the chances of a lengthy settled warm spell in summer.

[Yarmy]

Pub run not joining the party with everything further east:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014052918/gfs-0-192.png?18?18

...and pretty wretched from then onwards. Fingers crossed for something more promising in the morning.

[summer blizzard]

GFS18z is another poor run in the high resolution timeframe to day 8. Afterward it tries but fails to rescue the pattern.

 

[knocker]

A quick star of the day at the GFS 18z anomaly for next week (little change) and a glance into the future which also still has the build up of heights from the NE and warmer weather. The key question is what is going to be the evolution after next week.

 

[knocker]

Very briefly the upper air situation for next week on the GFS ops run.

 

Thursday has a deep upper low orientated eastern Atlantic to the UK.By Friday this has swung around it's axis to be aligned SW/NE. On Saturday the main centre is SW of Cornwall and the warm air from the east has encroached the North Sea. On Sunday similar but the centre is now east of Ireland

 

After that the huge blocking high to the north dominates and the situation regarding the UK and the east quite rapidly transforms, not for the better,  although warm air could certainly affect eastern parts but best ignored at the moment..

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS ensembles now very similar to yesterdays ECM with warm air brushing the south east by next weekend and in fact becoming more widespread during the later portion of the run.

Again there is a mix of solution ranging from cool and showery to very warm by next weekend. So again still plenty of time to pull the pattern west enough to bring something more summer like and this option is certainly in the hat and shouldn't be ignored.

 

ECM out to day 7

Looks good with the low setting up well west of the UK with pressure rising over Iberia

 

Well the ECM snatches defeat from the jaws of victory there. That's a sucker punch of a shortwave there which stops the surge of warm air in its tracks.

Edited May 30, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

don't be ridiculous. Summer's over. Haven't you been reading this thread?!

 

you couldn't make it up! post after post of doom and the ECM produces this:

 

 

What chances, i wonder? The GEM is close to not being that awfuk tonight as well. The GFS definitely doing its best to get contigency planners picking up the phone, though.

 

All is not quite lost yet.......

 

trouble is, whilst a possible warm/hot blast is possible later next week as depicted on this mornings runs, its a temporary feature, with the unsettled weather continuing after that (cherry picked ) chart .  so theres no sign of a real settling down with high pressure dominance, just a continuation of unsettled, wet, with brighter drier sunnier but short interludes.

[knocker]

Yes I would agree with that looking at the ECM ops sequence this morning.

 

The mean upper anomaly is not encouraging with mid Atlantic ridging into the UK with a swathe of warm air to the north barely impinging on the UK and this is about as far as it gets. Plus it will reenforce the continued development of these westerly-easterly troughs.

 

Surface analysis is initially a complex area of low pressure that becomes a low west of Ireland giving a slack southerly flow over the UK and by Monday a ridge from the Azores high is touching base. I suspect this af far as it will get.

 

The sequence of 850mb charts doesn't suggest temperatures above average and the weather might just as well wait as this analysis will change further down the road.

[IDO]

ECM from last night was an outlier (again) compared to the mean, with a small cluster from D9-10: 

 

So there was little chance of that run being repeated this morning. However the trough more to the west of the UK is beginning to look the call on the GEFS; T300 mean:

 

 

The ECM at the moment just looks to progressive with the pattern shifting west; GFS ENS are suggesting a couple of days later.

 

CFS anomaly for June also hinting in this direction: 

 

NOAA also hinting that the trough is further west with the low anomaly west enough to at least give the NE/E  a chance of something better:

 

8-14 day:

 

Week two for the recent JMA update also buys into the centre of lower heights more west based but pretty unsettled for all:

 

 

 

The GFS control shows the potential for 3-4 days of hot weather out in FI from about D12: 

 

The mean 2m temps on the GEFS marries up with this brief warm up of around three days though the Control is on its own for intensity:

 

 

It does look a repeating pattern; 5-7 days of unsettled cooler weather, then 2-3 days of an all to brief warm up till at least mid-June.

Edited May 30, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[johnholmes]

to me the overall 500mb anomaly output still suggests a trough rather than a ridge affecting the UK 6-10 days and more than likely out to 14 days or so but with the odds tending to improve for some ridging in the north.

[knocker]

The ECM ens for the weekend.

Edited May 30, 2014 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

Hang on, hang on ... on the face of it, there's a real risk of Northern blocking establishing in a way to keep us unsettled for a long period, but the ens are backing away from this and are increasingly moving the trough back into the Atlantic:

GFS takes this idea even further. Scandi block favoured, not necessarily bad?

[summer blizzard]

All three models (Euro, GFS and GEM) attempt to back the trough west this morning but only the Euro really gets there with a transient 1015mb ridge and mass northern blocking which one assumes will eventually boot the pattern in a direction many don't want. 

 

The GFS and GEM 0z runs were much more in tune with the Euro ensembles at day 8..

 

[summer blizzard]

GFS6z does build the high way into FI but in the high resolution timeframe it also backs the deluge scenario... A very wet opening to June next week.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

quite a plume on that run. would provide some serious fireworks.

signs of a pattern change towards the end of week 2, though not quite sure of the detail but a more traditional euro pattern looks likely with the jet blowing across europe from the west/south west

Edited May 30, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Yes, Way out at 300hr but sign's are still there for something more settled after week 2, The latest meto outlook seems to also hint a settling down from mid-month... Before then more of the same, Cool/Wet and unsettled off the Atlantic seems to be the continuing theme for now.

 

Edited May 30, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

As mentioned above we have continued signs of something more settled around the 300hr mark still in la la land of course but it does tie in with the met offices thoughts

 

 

Shorter term its looking unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain next week intercepted by some brighter spells temperatures should be around average next week but feeling warm in any sunny periods

Edited May 30, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Bobby]

An unsettled GFS 12z. A shocking chart for June this

 

GEM too, yikes

 

Edited May 30, 2014 by Bobby

[Captain Shortwave]

If we are going to look at the reliable timeframes, it looks like Wednesday and Thursday will be the wettest days of the week with showers and longer spells of rain. Before then it's a real mix with weak-ish heights and weak fronts getting stuck across the UK. So quite cloudy with a few showers or some patchy rain with temperatures touching the low twenties in favoured spots.

Beyond that well with low pressure spinning around just west of us there is always a chance of something warmer being pushed up from the continent. But no guarantees.

The GFS is going for the extended ridge over the north breaking and pushing into Greenland, this actually isn't a bad thing as the jet can loop up and push north eastwards and allow the Azores high to push into Europe and maybe the UK if we are lucky.

 

As I mentioned earlier a more traditional jet profile for this time of the year but if this is the evolution in a week or so time, then there is still little confidence in how north or south the jet will be.

 

The GEM is absolute garbage this afternoon. You couldn't place a worse upstream pattern. The low simply stalls near the UK for the entire run.

 

So at the moment we could see only 2 or 3 wet days (and even in those some places could escape fairly dry with the nature of showers) or we could see an unsettled spell which lasts much, much, much longer.

Edited May 30, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[ANYWEATHER]

If we are going to look at the reliable timeframes, it looks like Wednesday and Thursday will be the wettest days of the week with showers and longer spells of rain. Before then it's a real mix with weak-ish heights and weak fronts getting stuck across the UK. So quite cloudy with a few showers or some patchy rain with temperatures touching the low twenties in favoured spots.

Beyond that well with low pressure spinning around just west of us there is always a chance of something warmer being pushed up from the continent. But no guarantees.

The GFS is going for the extended ridge over the north breaking and pushing into Greenland, this actually isn't a bad thing as the jet can loop up and push north eastwards and allow the Azores high to push into Europe and maybe the UK if we are lucky.

 

As I mentioned earlier a more traditional jet profile for this time of the year but if this is the evolution in a week or so time, then there is still little confidence in how north or south the jet will be.

 

The GEM is absolute garbage this afternoon. You couldn't place a worse upstream pattern. The low simply stalls near the UK for the entire run.

 

So at the moment we could see only 2 or 3 wet days (and even in those some places could escape fairly dry with the nature of showers) or we could see an unsettled spell which lasts much, much, much longer.

In all respect to you Captain, little point worrying about precip charts at this stage, they wont be right, and things will change, the model precip charts have been pretty dire this week in terms of where the rain will be. Models always struggle in this type synoptic scenario, but there very good at the Atlantic train weather...

[Summer Sun]

ECM still hinting of a slow rise in pressure from the east later next week which initially gives us a warm southerly flow could be some thundery downpours for some as well

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Apart from the Footy tonight, its no wonder this place is deserted, with both ecm and gfs show cool unsettled conditions right up to T+168 and beyond....   :nonono: 

[draztik]

Ecm ensembles 6-10 day height anom.

Very little to say. A dreadful outlook for midweek thru wkend.

[summer blizzard]

Out to day 9 and all operational are pretty bad, a very wet outlook.