Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[bluearmy]

This 'toss a coin' week 2 modelling sure is frustrating!

i guess the smart money would be on repeating patterns. That doesnt bode too well.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

 

 

morning all the sun out  at  the moment  ,but looking deep into fantasy world june not looking very dry and hot at the  moment!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

This 'toss a coin' week 2 modelling sure is frustrating!

i guess the smart money would be on repeating patterns. That doesnt bode too well.

ECM in a nutshell later on

Azores/Scandi ridges rebuilding with low pressure sinking south east towards southern Europe. Again it's not the cold and wet conditions of 2012 showing here, the extra warmth input from the continent could bring some pretty spectacular (and awful) rainfall amounts to the south. If we got that far we would be hoping the low stays as far west as possible to give the driest and warmest solution.

Edited May 25, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

This 'toss a coin' week 2 modelling sure is frustrating!

i guess the smart money would be on repeating patterns. That doesnt bode too well.

 

the repeating pattern appears to be having a cut off low locked in near or to the southwest of the uk, locked in by two strong high pressures, the azores and the scandinavian, linked by a ridge. i think the first time we saw this was late jan where we narrowly avoided a cold easterly. it has recurred a couple of times since, including this one. 

of course the exact position, strength and orientation of these pressure systems make a big difference to what we might get, but rain is nearly always on the menue . so whilst we might get a few bonus nice days, like last weekend, it soon deteriorates into a very showery regime.

is this the pattern for the summer?

ECM in a nutshell later on

Azores/Scandi ridges rebuilding with low pressure sinking south east towards southern Europe. Again it's not the cold and wet conditions of 2012 showing here, the extra warmth input from the continent could bring some pretty spectacular (and awful) rainfall amounts to the south. If we got that far we would be hoping the low stays as far west as possible to give the driest and warmest solution.

 

thats a plus, we havnt (yet) got a strong greenland high, the scandinavian and azores appear to hold their ground.

[knocker]

The ECM ops anomaly is still going for the cold pool to the SE with the extended trough over the UK. extending to another cold pool over N.Canada.

Thus as the AZ high gives way over Sat. and Sun. similar to the gfs the low pressure to the NW of the UK becomes more influential

 

[Summer Sun]

If GFS is right and its a big if things would warmer towards the end of the week as high pressure builds in send temperatures into the high teens / low 20's for many for a time before low pressure moves in once more

 

 

Just for fun in FI

 

[knocker]

Looking at the ECM ens a state of limbo springs to mind. Not a million mile from the ops with the deep colder air to the SE and cooler air to the NW with the warmer air to the SW and NE leaving the UK in a sort of fluctuating trough/ridge scenario that remains the situation to well into June but that's Mystic Meg territory so we won't go there. For the weekend the jet is nipping around the Azores high so it might be quite a reasonable Friday, Sat, Sun.

 

But really it's still all to play for.

Edited May 25, 2014 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

I think there has been a move away from the 2012(esque) charts of yesterday and now seem to be slowly heading towards the very bullish long range predictions for the summer.

Again even smoothed out suggests low Euro heights with ridges east and west of the UK. Temperatures slightly above average and wet (especially in the south) comes to mind here. I think picking out surface patterns beyond 4 or 5 days could be very difficult this summer unless there is a clear change in longwave pattern.

Gavin P's forecast very much ties in with other forecasts. Wet and warm would probably be the call this summer. Some areas East of us could bake for large periods of the summer.

[vladthemert]

rain accumulation upto and including  tuesday by GFS we going to get quite a bit if it shift left we could be in for 57mm.  Would this include convection rainfall.  Anybody got boat to lend if it does shift a tad

 

Edited May 25, 2014 by vladthemert

[Gordon Webb]

rain accumulation upto and including  tuesday by GFS we going to get quite a bit if it shift left we could be in for 57mm.  Would this include convection rainfall.  Anybody got boat to lend if it does shift a tad

 

 

possible the met office websites forecast does have more persitant rain moving in from the east from tuesday and lasting into thursday especially the further east you go for which they already have warnings cloudy and wet seems to sum it up for that part of the world

[vladthemert]

thanks gordon we are not expected alot today so its all monday and tuesday mostly tuesday with that band coming in from looks netherlands way.  We dont normally get alot we have had 72mm this month.  Likely 3rd of yearly total we had this year in 2 days.  

Edited May 25, 2014 by Polar Maritime
Please try and keep to Model Discussion only in this thread, Thanks.

[knocker]

Digressing slightly the US has also been having some pretty static synoptics recently with rainfall 'sticking' around giving some pretty large accumulations. A quick glance and there doesn't appear to be any rapid changes either.

Edited May 25, 2014 by knocker

[Gordon Webb]

apologies if slightly off topic

 

the met are forecasting showers for tomorrow mainly in more eastern/southeastern areas which the heaviest are also expected to be but a few elsewhere but definitely looks more generally cloudy and damp/wet after that

Edited May 25, 2014 by Polar Maritime
Edited due to further off Topic edit's, Please stick to Model Discussion. Thanks.

[summer blizzard]

GEM, ECWMF and GFS all seem to generally agree today. After an attempt to build a ridge the trough will begin to push through at day 8 with a trough near to the west of the UK afterward.

 

[draztik]

Looking at the latest update from gefs; we look like keeping these higher than average heights to our North and NE throughout. The UK looks like seeing mixed conditions during this timeframe; the better conditions in the NE while the SW turns more unsettled into days 9-16.

Height anom/gefs days 1-16

Temp anomaly indicates above average conditions in the N, while the South sees temps more akin to normal. Not exactly a tempting outlook for those S of the border at this stage (in terms of overall conditions). On a side note, and as I sit here watching the tennis from the French Open, I think the organizers in Paris will be looking at this forecast with dred! France looks wet & cool into mid-term!

16 day mean temp anom/gefs

Edited May 25, 2014 by draztik

[knocker]

The 06z GFS mean anomaly continues to look unpromising.

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday and Wednesday needs some close attention potential for some heavy rain in some eastern parts (early warnings in place from the met office) not only the rain but low temperatures and an easterly wind will make it feel pretty chilly

 

Still some uncertainties for where the heaviest rain will be on Tuesday but current thinking in Yorkshire, humberside, east Midland and down into the south east

 

 

The best of the warmth as you can see will be in the west where you have shelter from the easterly wind though it won't necessarily be dry

 

On Wednesday the main rain band may push further north so temperatures in the south may rise slightly but with a lot of cloud and possibly some rain later it would still feel chilly with the easterly feed continuing

 

 

By Thursday the system should be easing with pressure starting to rise from the north but the UK will be left with a lot of cloud so rain is possible just about anywhere

 

 

By Friday current suggestions are it will be all change with pressure much higher temperatures will recover to the high teens / low 20's for many though the odd isolated shower can't be ruled out where cloud remains thickest, feeling much warmer in any sunshine

 

 

So in summary

 

A warm day tomorrow with some thunderstorms cropping up in places but it will be a warm day for many high teens / low 20's (not covered that as Tuesday and Wednesday is more of a concern)

 

Very wet and chilly for some Tuesday and Wednesday

 

A fairly cloudy day Thursday with some rain possible anywhere though the system should be pulling away as pressure rises from the north

 

Friday much more settled with temperatures high teens / low 20's though the odd isolated shower remains possible but feeling much warmer in any sunshine

Edited May 25, 2014 by Summer Sun

[vladthemert]

thanks Summer Sun does tie in with model accumulation that I posted really does look worry in my neck of woods.  That orange band might just clip us too as heads north might become bit weakened hopefully.  Wednesday too to less degree as the ground will be already very wet.

[Chris K]

Well at that range right out in deep deep FI, the GFS typically coughs out lots of different solutions every run. Even if one scenario appears more often as a "trend", personally I don't think it's even worth spending the time to think about until it's within a week or so. That is roughly the time when a decent enough idea on the incoming set up is gathered, with details getting refined as we enter higher resolution.

 

I guess it's a bit of eye candy for a convective POV though...

[Summer Sun]

Friday and Saturday looking decent for most of England and Wales if ECM is right

 

 

Can't see that ridge last more than 2 days the low to our north will be with us at t168

[Cheshire Freeze]

Friday and Saturday looking decent for most of England and Wales if ECM is right

 

 

Can't see that ridge last more than 2 days the low to our north will be with us at t168

 

Yep, after the initial stronger build of pressure it looks like the later output could exhibit more deterioration in the pattern than the 0z did

 

 

Look out west at 192...looks like a potential wave development to me in time for 216 frame

 

Edited May 25, 2014 by CreweCold

[Polar Maritime]

Yep, after the initial stronger build of pressure it looks like the later output could exhibit more deterioration in the pattern than the 0z did

 

 

Yes Crew, The Models are certainly showing a repeating pattern.

Edited May 25, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Mid week already well covered by SS but just a glance at the ECM anomaly.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The ECM is an absolute shocker in FI. Northern blocking takes a foothold once more after a slight erosion of it mid run. That's about as bad as it gets for June...

 

Edited May 25, 2014 by CreweCold

[ANYWEATHER]

I really wish that these synoptic patterns had happened in Winter, we all may have seen plenty of the white stuff,,,,