Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[049balt]

_{http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html}

 

 

_{At long last.}

[summer blizzard]

Here comes the rain..

 

 

ECWMF0z was a mixture of April 08 and June 07.

[Summer Sun]

ECM continuing to gradually build pressure next week

 

 

Still the possibility of some rain / showers around at first but these would become more isolated with time

 

Days 9 and 10 shows a gradual breakdown from the SW though northern parts hold onto some drier weather especially Scotland

 

Edited May 20, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Polar Maritime]

Yes the models look to be showing a very showery pattern for the 2nd half of May as Darren Bett stressed last night, With Low pressure systems bumping into the Hight's over central Europe and stalling them over the UK.

Edited May 20, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[summer blizzard]

Another very wet end as a deepening low throws fronts north.. (south east may get a plume though)..

 

[knocker]

Yes the latest ECM anomaly is a touch complicated for next week although somewhat in line with their last ENS.Trough over the UK and cooler air to the south in Europe surrounded by warmer air, the most dominate feature to the west. But this eases further west to bring the UK into a cyclonic area.

Edited May 20, 2014 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

JMA once again going for high pressure to build in quite strongly next week

 

 

Temperatures on the rise by mid week especially towards the south west

 

[damianslaw]

Its looks a very messy outlook cyclonic in nature with the trough becoming unstuck over the country thanks to strong blocking heights both to the east and NW - it simply has nowhere to go... mmm something we saw occur all too often in recent summers (last year excepted).

 

This time of year can see such patterns particularly given the atlantic is traditionally at its weakest and heights often develop to our NE.

[summer blizzard]

Its looks a very messy outlook cyclonic in nature with the trough becoming unstuck over the country thanks to strong blocking heights both to the east and NW - it simply has nowhere to go... mmm something we saw occur all too often in recent summers (last year excepted).

 

This time of year can see such patterns particularly given the atlantic is traditionally at its weakest and heights often develop to our NE.

 

The concern should be that it's south and not north or west. That day 10 chart from the Euro is a classic T chart in terms of the frontal system and it's that T pattern that brought us 2007 because it means most of the front ends up aligned W-E. A little deeper and that's a 12 hour rainfall chart for England.

[William of Walworth]

Not possible to predict how long such synoptic conditions are going to last though, surely, nor how strongly a trough dominated system will develop or exactly in that position. Usual FI caution about Day 10 suggestions has to apply.

Edited May 20, 2014 by William of Walworth

[knocker]

The ECM ens is going for a stronger build up with the Atlantic (It has been running with this) with the 500mb anom, leading to a stronger influence from the Atlantic HP for the BH weekend.

Edited May 20, 2014 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

Next week is shaping up to be very interesting as the heat in Eastern Europe tries to march westwards again.

GFS showing temperatures next week back into the low 20s. Question is how far west can the warm 850s get. 

UKMO still looks the best solution with the best alignment of the Atlantic low, pushing heights north eastwards from the Azores

The warmth would push further west here.

All to play for really. Hopefully we can keep correcting the pattern westwards like the pub run has done now.

Edited May 20, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Captain Shortwave]

Well good agreement on easterly winds setting up next week as high pressure stretches over the top of the UK

850s look rather warm as the heat from the east slowly trickles its way here

With low pressure in charge over central/southern Europe, there could be some thundery rain pushing northwest into the UK at times too.

Edited May 21, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Weather Boy]

Here comes the rain..

 

 

ECWMF0z was a mixture of April 08 and June 07.

 

Hi

 

I wonder if we have the problem again of the chart that you have posted updating itself and therefore not being the same chart that you originally posted?

 

I say that because I don't really understand why you interpret that chart as being especially wet.  If you asked me -an amateur with zero training of course- to interpret that chart I'd say that it was not a particularly settled chart, but with pressure not particularly low I would have thought most places would experience showers, reasonably scattered, but most prevelant in the north-west with increasing sunshine and fewer showers the further south-east you are, which would give around average temperatures.

 

Why do you think it shows a particularly wet set-up?

 

(Of course, it being 10 days away, it won't verify anyway of course, but might not be a million miles off the mark).

 

Cheers.

[SW Saltire]

Hi I wonder if we have the problem again...Cheers.

WB, the chart has definitely changed. The original was for Friday the 30th I think. I had far lower pressure to the SW, with fronts straddled across the UK. Hope that helps Thanks

[Man With Beard]

T192 - lots of uncertainty on the map, but all build heights in the direction of the North Sea

 

 

Basically, more certain to be dry the further north you go. West could be good too. Southern areas could go wet/cool or hot/dry, but on an easterly at this time of year I would favour the latter.

Confidence fairly low on the whole evolution I think, simply because the depth of the French low is a little unusual for this evolution and the time of year - if there are to be modifications, I imagine the models will make less of this low nearer the time.

So prospects for next week - not too bad for sun/warm in most places but watch out in the south and take an extra layer on the east coast.

[Summer Sun]

Well good agreement on easterly winds setting up next week as high pressure stretches over the top of the UK

850s look rather warm as the heat from the east slowly trickles its way here

With low pressure in charge over central/southern Europe, there could be some thundery rain pushing northwest into the UK at times too.

 

Not so sure the surface temperatures would be all that high for some parts of Scotland and the far north of England 

 

Edited May 21, 2014 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

A quick look at the ECM ens for the holiday weekend. Not much change from yesterday with a somewhat indeterminate area over the UK with a strong HP area in the Atlantic giving a nudge. The 850mb flow would appear to be from Europe giving about average temps. No great faith in this at this range although the 500mb anomaly is at least consistant.

Edited May 21, 2014 by knocker

[IDO]

The ECM op this morning was in the optimistic cluster of warmer temps: 

 

D7, D9 and D10 3-4c above the mean. That mean is rather uninspiring through to June. However it reflects a cooler and warmer cluster so probably not a great help.

 

The D7 mean uppers compared to the op keeps the warmer uppers out of the UK, though not bad:

 

 

 

I still have minimal confidence in D6 so FI is just for trends, but the London ENS on the 06z is promising for an increase in temps:

 

 

However there still remains no clear synoptic for D12 amongst the GEFS: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=300

 

So it is probably just the temps recovering from the upcoming cooler 4-5 days rather than any pending sustained pressure rise.

 

The 06z op makes much less of the short wave surface ridge over the coming Bank Holiday weekend, than the 0z, with the upper trough holding sway for most of the country.

 

Last night's NOAA 8-14 day anomaly: 

 

It keeps the current underlying pattern.

 

Tomorrow and Saturday remain the wet days but no major rain events showing after that, so generally changeable rather than wash out. There is no Atlantic thrust in the medium term, so we have surface HP and LP mixing it up as the Euro trough meanders around waiting for a trigger to disrupt this rather uninspiring pattern. This looks the likely scenario for the next 10 days+ with short wave transient ridges giving drier, warmer and brighter interludes. Though surface conditions remain difficult to call as the shape, size and direction of the upper Euro trough remains fluid.

[summer blizzard]

Hi

 

I wonder if we have the problem again of the chart that you have posted updating itself and therefore not being the same chart that you originally posted?

 

I say that because I don't really understand why you interpret that chart as being especially wet.  If you asked me -an amateur with zero training of course- to interpret that chart I'd say that it was not a particularly settled chart, but with pressure not particularly low I would have thought most places would experience showers, reasonably scattered, but most prevelant in the north-west with increasing sunshine and fewer showers the further south-east you are, which would give around average temperatures.

 

Why do you think it shows a particularly wet set-up?

 

(Of course, it being 10 days away, it won't verify anyway of course, but might not be a million miles off the mark).

 

Cheers.

 

Yes it changed from the 12z.

 

Todays output is much more benign away from the south east corner.

[phil nw.]

Ensemble charts indicating a squeeze on the UK trough by early next week.It gradually weakens and eases back west as heights build around Scandinavia.

 

 

a more continental flow looks likely from this as the Azores high shows no sign of building north yet. If the surface flow tends to blow east off the N.Sea rather than south east or south there could be low cloud,mist and drizzle near eastern coasts at times.

There should be some warm sunshine for many especially further west.Some showery rain is possible at times though with shallow low pressure on the near continent creating some instability within the pattern.

Edited May 21, 2014 by phil nw.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO still showing us getting some for of easterly winds this afternoon for early next week

 

 

It looks a fine balance at the moment as to what conditions we will get next week if it was an east to south easterly that would bring more in the way of dry and sunny conditions along with lower humidity temperatures would begin to rise quite quickly given the heat which is building up over in the continent, however a north easterly would keep temperatures lower especially in the east where we'd have more in the way of cloud and drizzle or light rain

[IDO]

ECM op 850s this morning was at the top end of its ensembles again, cross model it also has little support:

 

ECM:   GFS:  GEM: 

 

ECM shows the warmer cluster in the ECM suite, GEM showing the cooler cluster and GFS the moderator, and maybe closer to the outcome?

 

The GFS 12z has the UK under the trough in one form or other till around June 1st, with the flow pepping up the trough early in week 2:

 

 

Followed by a transient ridge edging NE from the Azores taking around another 4 days (though low heights remain anchored in the east Med waiting the next drop in pressure), then the trough re-established with a more NW-SE axis:

 

Control also supports the op for next week: 

 

Both accelerating the fall in pressure from around D5: 

 

GEM says NO to the ECM pressure rise to our east at around D5-D7: 

 

It flirts briefly with a ridge from the Azores but the Atlantic sinks this and the UK remains in the grip of the trough right out to D10:

 

 

A lot of flip flopping cross models with regard to early next week, will pressure rise from the east/NE, SW or will the trough be as progressive as the GFS; who knows?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Scorcher]

 

 

A lot of flip flopping cross models with regard to early next week, will pressure rise from the east/NE, SW or will the trough be as progressive as the GFS; who knows?

 

The GFS has proven to be far too progressive in my eyes over the last week or two, I wouldn't be inclined to trust it at all yet with regards to next week. It wanted to bring cooler, unsettled conditions in as soon as last Sunday only around 2 or 3 days beforehand and look what happened- we have had yet another sunny and warm day here today and it's Wednesday now!

[Captain Shortwave]

The GFS has proven to be far too progressive in my eyes over the last week or two, I wouldn't be inclined to trust it at all yet with regards to next week. It wanted to bring cooler, unsettled conditions in as soon as last Sunday only around 2 or 3 days beforehand and look what happened- we have had yet another sunny and warm day here today and it's Wednesday now!

The UKMO has it for me really, good consistency over the last few runs on the winds swinging easterly next week, this means that rain will try to push up from the continent and push north westwards. Just like the metoffice update. If we get any sunshine it will become quite warm.

ECM looks very similar to the UKMO at day 5. The push of warm air seems to be not as good this time, mainly due to that shortwave lingering over northern Scotland.

Edited May 21, 2014 by Captain shortwave