Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the 850 ensembles they are never far away from average from the 11th onwards through to Easter with a peak in the lowest 850's likely on Tuesday and a peak with the highest likely on Thursday in the further south you are

 

 

Rainfall amounts look relatively low for the south, at this very early stage the best call for Easter is a fairly average one temperature rise which will be a huge improvement on Easter 2013 given any sunshine it would feel quite pleasant

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

Looking at the 850 ensembles they are never far away from average from the 11th onwards through to Easter with a peak in the lowest 850's likely on Tuesday and a peak with the highest likely on Thursday in the further south you are

 

 

Rainfall amounts look relatively low for the south, at this very early stage the best call for Easter is a fairly average one temperature rise which will be a huge improvement on Easter 2013 given any sunshine it would feel quite pleasant

 

Yes, the latest forecast for next week is for a much cooler wetter and more unsettled weather coming up compared to last week, especially the further North you are. With an even cooler N/W flow towards next weekend, a very traditional April coming up and seems to follow the GFS.

 

 

Before then even Tuesday has -4 850s over much of the UK.. Nothing at all Summery throughout the board.

 

Edited April 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

I'm only posting this as I have shares in a defibrillator company.

Edited April 6, 2014 by knocker

[049balt]

"Yes, the latest forecast for next week is for a much cooler wetter and more unsettled weather coming up compared to last week, especially the further North you are"

 

 

I don't agree, here in Ireland, which is as far West as you can go the forecast is for a mostly dry week after Monday's rain ,and temperatures to fall back to normal values.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO showing pressure re-building later in the week setting up a split by Saturday with Scotland seeing the bulk of the unsettled weather with England, Northern Ireland and Wales seeing higher pressure though the far south and SW holds onto the high through-out from Tuesday

 

 

GFS 12z like the 06z uninterested in the northerly which the 00z had

 

 

 

Only hint of a northerly is way out at t372 & t384

 

Edited April 6, 2014 by Summer Sun

[049balt]

UKMO showing pressure re-building later in the week setting up a split by Saturday with Scotland seeing the bulk of the unsettled weather with England, Northern Ireland and Wales seeing higher pressure though the far south and SW holds onto the high through-out from Tuesday

 

 

GFS 12z like the 06z uninterested in the northerly which the 00z had

 

 

Some very nice Spring weather ahead, occasional small interruptions to a mostly dry picture.

[pad199207]

Some very nice Spring weather ahead, occasional small interruptions to a mostly dry picture.

Yes Fantastic News . Have had enough disappointments from Winter2013/14 so be off with you!

[Frosty.]

Well, such polarized opinions on here..which is right..dry or wet?..how about a mixture of dry and sunny and cloudy & wet, mild and colder. windy and calm....sounds about right to me

[049balt]

GFS now dropping the very cold and wet weather in favour of a more settled outlook.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

[Frank Trough]

Well, such polarized opinions on here..which is right..dry or wet?..how about a mixture of dry and sunny and cloudy & wet, mild and colder. windy and calm....sounds about right to me

 

looking at the charts, it looks like the sort of thing you would expect in April.....wait a second...

[Summer Sun]

Lovely run from GEM again once the high rebuilds in during Friday its high pressure galore right out to t240 away from Scotland where the high takes till Sunday to move in

 

 

Edited April 6, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

looking at the charts, it looks like the sort of thing you would expect in April.....wait a second...

april showers

[gottolovethisweather]

Well, such polarized opinions on here..which is right..dry or wet?..how about a mixture of dry and sunny and cloudy & wet, mild and colder. windy and calm....sounds about right to me

 

Frosty and others.

 

IMO, the North West/South East split looks like continuing to me, especially given that the UKMO has also jumped on board with this overriding signal. Aside from the odd SE'wards diving front, it will be largely dry for my location. Will be fascinating to see what the ECM makes of the GFS's rare love in of HP influence further South. I always stand to attention when the GFS toys about with idea of High Pressure overhead or nearby, given its Atlantic zonal tendencies, as I have stated before when I said the following on March 11th.

 

IMHO, when the GFS models some sort of HP influence lurking out into low-res output, we should at least take note, given its passion for default zonal conditions.

 

The key to future conditions is now whether all models can reach some consensus over the developments after next week's cooler spell. Its all relative again I guess as even in the SE it's still forecast to get up to 16c tomorrow, according to some media forecasts. Easter weekend cannot be predicted with any degree of certainty until mid week at least IMHO. For general guidance away from the day to day surface conditions I would advise you view the JohnHolmes and Phil NW postings from earlier which referred to the upper air profiles.

Edited April 6, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Winter Cold]

One thing ive picked up from reading this forum over the past year or so is to look at 'trends' and to my eyes, all the GFS runs keep amplifying the pattern out west and a northerly comes in at some point on most of the last few days runs. Shourly that means one might verify?

 

Weve learnt not to trust ECM as much now, so if it was that model always showing this then id be cautious, but its encouraging that its GFS showing it. Ive also heard that its the best model for getting the area NW of us right?

 

Lets put it this way, from the weather this past few months, and indeed the last few years, id not be at all surprised to see snow falling at Easter! Would you?

[Polar Maritime]

Well, such polarized opinions on here..which is right..dry or wet?..how about a mixture of dry and sunny and cloudy & wet, mild and colder. windy and calm....sounds about right to me

 

Yes Karl, with the illusive "high pressure" waxing and waning over the next week there is something for everyone, with such different takes on the models today being the evidence... But overall a very typical April week coming up with neither Low or High pressure taking hold over the UK, leaving the majority bar the far South cool unsettled and wet at times. 

 

Yes W.C The experts at the BBC week forecast are hinting a colder weeks end from the N/W, as you say something the GFS has been trending for 3 days, and now we are starting to see the water'd down version as we slowly get to the reliable time-frame..

Edited April 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[049balt]

The West has been very, very wet over the last week with 200% normal rain fall here, although very mild, I see a big improvement here over the next week or so with much less rainfall and temperatures falling to more normal values.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes 049... Something for everyone, but not for everyone 

[knocker]

One thing ive picked up from reading this forum over the past year or so is to look at 'trends' and to my eyes, all the GFS runs keep amplifying the pattern out west and a northerly comes in at some point on most of the last few days runs. Shourly that means one might verify?

 

Weve learnt not to trust ECM as much now, so if it was that model always showing this then id be cautious, but its encouraging that its GFS showing it. Ive also heard that its the best model for getting the area NW of us right?

 

Lets put it this way, from the weather this past few months, and indeed the last few years, id not be at all surprised to see snow falling at Easter! Would you?

 

Not unprecedented down here as we had three inches of snow in Camborne at Easter in 1872 when the Easter weekend was 16-17 of April.

[Captain Shortwave]

One thing to take note of from the GFS ens is there is signs of high pressure being close by, building in during Friday and lasting throughout, especially in the South.

[Frosty.]

Yes Karl, with the illusive "high pressure" waxing and waning over the next week there is something for everyone, with such different takes on the models today being the evidence... But overall a very typical April week coming up with neither Low or High pressure taking hold over the UK, leaving the majority bar the far South cool unsettled and wet at times. 

 

Yes W.C The experts at the BBC week forecast are hinting a colder weeks end from the N/W, as you say something the GFS has been trending for 3 days, and now we are starting to see the water'd down version as we slowly get to the reliable time-frame..

Absolutely the way I see it too PM

[Summer Sun]

Friday sees temperatures ranging widely from 10c to 12 for England and Wales

 

 

Saturday has temps of 7c to 10c in the north and 11c to 14c in the south

 

 

By Sunday NW England sees temps around 8c to 10c else where its a range from 11c to 16c

 

 

Into Monday we only go to mid-day parts of Scotland really struggle with temps around 4c to 6c for some, for England and Wales we see temperatures ranging from 11c to 15c though I would add a few c on to take into account the afternoon peak so lets say 13c to 18c

 

 

All in all I can't see anything too cold TBH away from Scotland and parts of Northern England at times

 

GFS 8 day 2m temperature anomaly remains above average

 

Edited April 6, 2014 by Summer Sun

[ANYWEATHER]

Absolutely the way I see it too PM

Its overall, a typical April fest with showers and longer periods of rain and cool weather for the north ,better further south , but models do hint of some colder conditions for the south later on....

[Polar Maritime]

 

 

 

Bearing in mind they are all maximum temp charts.

Edited April 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Summer Sun]

Still uncertainties at t144 though 2 out of 3 favour high pressure moving back in for most

 

ECM still wants to bring the low to the UK

 

 

Where as UKMO prefers to build the high back in keeping the low further north only really affecting Scotland

 

 

GFS is pretty close to UKMO amazingly

 

 

Out of the main 3 ECM is the odd one out tonight at t144

 

Beyond t144 ECM has a north westerly setting up for a few days

 

 

Edited April 6, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Unsettled end to ECM though not overly cold initially

 

 

Will be interesting to see how that sits with its ensemble run in 90 minutes

Edited April 6, 2014 by Summer Sun