Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[shaky]

Indeed both GFS and UKMO show pressure fairly high over the UK on Sunday UKMO would give northern Scotland some unsettled weather where as GFS would keep us all settled

 

UKMO

 

 

GFS

 

 

Then we have ECM which is more unsettled for a wider area

 

I'll go with the gfs on this one cos we all know how ecm likes to over amplify things!!

[Summer Sun]

I'll go with the gfs on this one cos we all know how ecm likes to over amplify things!!

 

This is how the met see things for Sunday in today update

 

Clearer, cooler conditions with some showers will follow from the north as any remaining rain clears all areas during Sunday. Showers are likely to be heaviest, and also wintry over higher ground, in the north.

 

So they don't appear to follow GFS for now

Edited April 7, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

GFS 850s look like they'll go well above average once more for a time next week with the London ensemble showing things could become quite warm for 3 or 4 days from the 17th to 23rd the 850's then hovers around the average mark. Low amounts of rain are shown as well on the London ensemble.

 

 

The Manchester ensemble also shows a dry spell coming up with very little rain for a good 9 days 850's will be above normal here as well from the 12th to 16th from the 17th to 23rd it then hovers around the average mark

 

 

The Aberdeen ensemble also showing the 850's going above average from the 12th to 16th from the 17th to 23rd it then hovers around the average mark

 

[knocker]

I'll go with the gfs on this one cos we all know how ecm likes to over amplify things!!

 

You will have to excuse my ignorance but I didn't know this. Could you be more specific regarding what this means and if it's so obvious why they haven't addressed the problem?

[Polar Maritime]

You will have to excuse my ignorance but I didn't know this. Could you be more specific regarding what this means and if it's so obvious why they haven't addressed the problem?

 

To my knowledge it's usually the GFS that has the habit of over amplification, with a West bias.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z continues to show pressure rebuilding during Friday and Saturday very little change so far from GFS

 

 

UKMO shows a nice spell coming up with high pressure starting to become dominant though northern Scotland looks to be the only exception at times with low pressure never too far away on Thursday and Saturday

 

 

Could be a decent weekend coming up the way things are shaping up currently with temperatures easily making it into the high teens for many in the south and mid teens elsewhere

 

Edited April 7, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm big changes today really, the GFS really wanting to build the high in much more strongly this coming weekend and even begins to transfer it towards Scandinavia setting up a warm to very warm south/southeasterly

The UKMO looks similar in wanting to start to push the high over the UK and with a developing trough in the Atlantic, then the high would also try and push eastwards into Central/northern Europe.

 

Classic GFS low resolution, did it suddenly decide it's November again

Also might add that day 8 chart on the GFS shows the +12 isotherm getting into South-west England.... toasty

Edited April 7, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Quite an unsettled spell developing on GFS from day 9 leading to an unsettled Easter weekend with temperatures just making it into double figures for the south

 

[Captain Shortwave]

GEM looks pretty decent too. Could be another pleasant spell of weather developing by the weekend into next week.

Edited April 7, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

GFS once again continues with it's cooler unsettled and wetter trend from the 16th onwards..

 

[knocker]

GFS 12z continues to show pressure rebuilding during Friday and Saturday very little change so far from GFS

 

 

 

 

UKMO shows a nice spell coming up with high pressure starting to become dominant though northern Scotland looks to be the only exception at times with low pressure never too far away on Thursday and Saturday

 

 

 

Could be a decent weekend coming up the way things are shaping up currently with temperatures easily making it into the high teens for many in the south and mid teens elsewhere

 

 

You could be correct.

[shaky]

Precisely my point all the models slowly pointing towards high pressure dominating the weather end of this week onwards which is what the ukmo and gfs were showing on the 00zs!!about the ecm I was on about the winter just gone!!everytime it showed a northerly or easterly most of the time the gfs was not having it and was a lot flatter and less amplified across america and the atlantic compared to ecm!!eventually ecm backed down and followed the gfs!!to be fair ecm had a horror show winter just gone!!

[Peejayem]

GFS once again continues with it's cooler unsettled and wetter trend from the 16th onwards..

 

Do you always post the coolest, wettest charts you can find?

[Polar Maritime]

Do you always post the coolest, wettest charts you can find?

 

Hi Pee, Over the past couple of days the charts have been showing a cooler more unsettled trend from mid-month onwards. And this is what the models are showing and my interest lies in reading the charts to gain an understanding in what lies ahead, this is what this thread is all about. There are many on here showing the elusive High Pressure charts on every run.. but i like to add a little balance, whatever lies ahead, the weather will do what it wants, whether it's what we want is another question.

Edited April 7, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[ANYWEATHER]

Do you always post the coolest, wettest charts you can find?

He is just posting what the charts are saying, nothing more nothing less! With all respect the comment you have just left has no benefit at all to the model output discussion

[Summer Sun]

GEM showing a decent spell of weather developing from Friday to Tuesday

 

 

By Wednesday the high starts to decline and by the end low pressure moves in

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Hi Pee, Over the past couple of days the charts have been showing a cooler more unsettled trend from mid-month onwards. And this is what the models are showing and my interest lies in reading the charts to gain an understanding in what lies ahead, this is what this thread is all about. There are many on here showing the elusive High Pressure charts on every run.. but i like to add a little balance, whatever lies ahead, the weather will do what it wants, whether it's what we want is another question.

Trouble is over the last month, high pressure hasn't exactly been elusive

Only a few days ago the temperatures were approaching 20C down here, those same days where the models were predicting very cold northerlies and easterlies at 8-10 days out. Hence like for most of the winter my confidence in anything cold approaching our shores is very low.

GFS ens are about as erratic as the operationals but I would love to take the day 8 mean here

If the high builds across us and into Europe, temperatures could become very warm next week. Of course the high could retrogress westwards and allow cooler and more unsettled weather to gain a foothold.

Also that double ridge shape over our part of the world, doesn't exactly give me much confidence in the models. They were awful at handling these last year.

[Summer Sun]

In the short term a fairly dry spell is set to develop from tomorrow to the 15th with very little rain for England and Wales, longer term (15th to 23rd) it looks rather wet UK wide

 

 

As for the next 8 days 2m temperatures will remain above average

 

[Polar Maritime]

Trouble is over the last month, high pressure hasn't exactly been elusive

Only a few days ago the temperatures were approaching 20C down here, those same days where the models were predicting very cold northerlies and easterlies at 8-10 days out. Hence like for most of the winter my confidence in anything cold approaching our shores is very low.

GFS ens are about as erratic as the operationals but I would love to take the day 8 mean here

If the high builds across us and into Europe, temperatures could become very warm next week. Of course the high could retrogress westwards and allow cooler and more unsettled weather to gain a foothold.

Also that double ridge shape over our part of the world, doesn't exactly give me much confidence in the models. They were awful at handling these last year.

 

I have only stated cooler/colder not "cold", And yes the trend is for cooler unsettled weather beyond D10 as this is the time-frame im looking at the moment, as per my previous post's. Im fully aware of the many small details which have to be taken into consideration at this range, for which others im sure are quite aware of..

 

This be High of Low pressure, April is a very difficult month to forecast with such conflicting and ever changing background signals at this time of the year.  

Edited April 7, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[049balt]

GFS forecasting some very unsettled weather in week two.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

[Summer Sun]

GFS ensemble showing a lot of high pressure tonight with a 1 day northerly blip at t216

 

 

The unsettled weather the Op run has isn't supported by the ensemble all in all it doesn't look too bad longer term tonight with high pressure never far away we could even see a decent BH weekend

[Summer Sun]

ECM finally coming on board now

 

 

The only exception to a settled weekend is parts of Scotland on Saturday other wise lots of settled weather on offer with temps in the mid to high teens

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst there is rain still grazing the north of the coutry, even the ECM is slowly starting to back a dry and fine weekend for many

 

And wanting to extend it into next week.

[049balt]

Whilst there is rain still grazing the north of the coutry, even the ECM is slowly starting to back a dry and fine weekend for many

 

And wanting to extend it into next week.

This is a nice surprise as this weekend was being written off as wet and windy.

Are all the models now in agreement for the weekend?

Edited April 7, 2014 by 049balt

[Summer Sun]

ECM looks fairly warm up-to and including the 15th hopefully sunny as well

 

 

16th sees the breakdown starting though its stays warm for England and Wales possibly humid for some could see some thundery rain in places

 

Edited April 7, 2014 by Summer Sun