Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

[Polar Maritime]

The latest ECMWF now in line with the GFS as it comes within its time-frame for an unsettled cooler and wetter outlook, But im sure there will be many more modifications to come over next few days.

 

Edited April 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Winter Cold]

Yep, ECM now lining up a northerly just in time for Easter   lovely jubly!

 

Edited April 6, 2014 by Winter Cold

[johnholmes]

The West has been very, very wet over the last week with 200% normal rain fall here, although very mild, I see a big improvement here over the next week or so with much less rainfall and temperatures falling to more normal values.

 

please no bold it is not necessary

[phil nw.]

Let's keep on topic please guys-some posts have been removed for saying nothing about the model runs.

@Anyweather- that origional post has been removed.

 

Thanks all.

[049balt]

Yep, ECM now lining up a northerly just in time for Easter   lovely jubly!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2014 by 049balt

[049balt]

Sorry for the above, had trouble adding this in. GFS appears not to be supporting the ECM tonight.

[Milhouse]

All 3 charts are at 240h. Needless to say that things remain uncertain, as they always do at that range.

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Not much support from the ECM ensemble at t240

 

 

Op

 

 

Leading up-to that the ensemble shows high pressure building in turning things more settled away from parts of Scotland

 

Edited April 6, 2014 by Summer Sun

[draztik]

Days 10-15 ecm ext continue to suggest cooler conditions becoming more widespread into medium term, with the continent also showing a negative anomaly. Before then, it's a very average looking setup - with the rather mild conditions of the past 10 days on the way out.

Days 10-15,temp anom

Edited April 6, 2014 by draztik

[knocker]

It's certainly changed it's handling of the colder incursion from the north.

Edited April 6, 2014 by knocker

[draztik]

It's certainly changed it's handling of the colder incursion from the north.

 

Yep, the ecm control would certainly make the Easter period very chilly indeed

 

days 9-14

Edited April 6, 2014 by draztik

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS really has lost the plot now.. 

 

[davehsug]

I would rather hope it's found it! A nice dry & hopefully sunny Easter would be nice for the vast majority of us.

[Polar Maritime]

I would rather hope it's found it! A nice dry & hopefully sunny Easter would be nice for the vast majority of us.

 

Yes it "would" be a fine pleasant Easter, but the vast contradiction between the last 2 GFS  runs speaks volume.

 

Lets hope we don't get stuck in a rut, as in these set-ups the GFS is showing on it's recent run can hang around for weeks, giving nothing of interest from both sides of the coin. 

Edited April 6, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[Captain Shortwave]

Safe to say the ECM is very different to it's previous run

 

Same can be said from the GEM with the potential prolonged spell of settled weather predicted in week 2 gone and replaced by a retrogressing high and a potential Easter arctic blast.

 

The models are certainly playing around with a more amplified pattern, but little consistency on how things fall for us in the UK and where the amplified ridge ends up. Could be west of the UK (cold), over the UK (settled and pleasant with night frosts) or it could be east of us (very warm???)

Edited April 7, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

The trend continues to grow this morning towards a colder period mid month onwards, The GFS seems to be back on board after last nights blip. Snow for most of the country with these chart's, a lovely pm blast. GEM is also tagging along now with the cold theme..

 

Edited April 7, 2014 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

The synoptic models certainly seem to favour an outbreak of Polar air in the 6-12 day time scale. Just what the 500mb anomaly charts will settle into is not clear. Below are my comments having looked at the ECMWF-GFS output this morning and that from NOAA from last evening.

As you can see there are differences although all 3 over the last 2 runs have gone towards the flow being north of west but none of them have really cold upper air over the UK, somewhere between 550 and 560dm which is far from cold.

Below the summary are the last outputs from them. I have lost the NAEFS link I am afraid, if someone can give me that please? Although I have not used them enough to be able to have any confidence or otherwise in there accuracy?

 

Mon 7 apr

Ec-gfs

Ridging/+ve heights now further west, almost into states, ec keeps idea of almost cut off well west with gfs  showing trough over uk, both also keep flow n of west over uk with heights 552’ish so about 6dm down on noaa 8-14 and even more on its 6-10 idea

All 3 seem to suggest a flow nof west in 6-10 even 8-14 time scale but no real depth of upper cold air, noaa on both suggests almost a touch of ridging with new ec-gfs not nor last one.

Overall not enough similarity or closeness run to run (consistency) to be really certain just what 10 days away may show, other than flow is most likely to be n of w not s of west

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

An interesting period as the models will slowly come to a concensus for the Easter weekend. For me at the moment I would still back the NOAA idea of pressure being fairly high, upper and lower, close by the UK.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the Easter weekend GFS continues to show high pressure close by as such the further south you are are the better chance you have of seeing some decent weather at times whilst the further north you are the more unsettled it would be

 

Good Friday starts unsettled for all for some wintery weather possible in the north and north west

 

 

Easter Saturday shows the high starting to build over the SW of England and over Ireland, wintery weather possible in the far north of Scotland

 

 

By Easter Sunday the high remains over the same areas giving us north westerly flow the further north you are the cooler it is quite wet as well but no snow

 

 

By Easter Monday the high is across the UK, with less cold air moving into the south west, wettest conditions still in the north but once more no snow

 

Edited April 7, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Weather Boy]

Looking at the Easter weekend GFS continues to show high pressure close by as such the further south you are are the better chance you have of seeing some decent weather at times whilst the further north you are the more unsettled it would be

 

Good Friday starts unsettled for all for some wintery weather possible in the north and north west

 

 

Easter Saturday shows the high starting to build over the SW of England and over Ireland, wintery weather possible in the far north of Scotland

 

 

By Easter Sunday the high remains over the same areas giving us north westerly flow the further north you are the cooler it is quite wet as well but no snow

 

 

By Easter Monday the high is across the UK, with less cold air moving into the south west, wettest conditions still in the north but once more no snow

 

 

Gavin,

 

As we are looking at a period nearly two weeks ahead, such a divergence is hardly surprising.  Indeed, synoptically, there is only a relatively (relative considering how far ahead it is) small shift between Atlantic high delivering northerly blast and High ridging in delivering fine settled and warm weather. 

 

Surely it will be the end of the week at the earliest before this is resolved?

[Summer Sun]

Back to the closer time-frame and north west Scotland looks like it will see the most rain over the coming week, longer term (15th to 23rd) the further south you are the drier it is

 

 

GFS 2m 8 day temperature anomaly remains above average

 

[Summer Sun]

Looks like an unsettled weekend could be on the cards for the north but the ECM ensemble shows the high coming back in from the SW during the weekend and it continues to build well into next week

 

 

Monday and Tuesday sees the high moving back across the UK settling things down nicely

 

 

Wednesday should remain settled for most, by Thursday the high backs away

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Here is my regional view of things on the run up to Easter week for anyone's perusal.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79573-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-weather-discussion-27214-18z/?p=2954887

 

The pattern further North using West Yorkshire by way of example, shows a slighter wetter more showery picture but still hints at a Pressure build in the midterm. The 850s drop below average on a few occasions, even within the reliable timeframe but any talk of snow, yet alone any wintriness is be taken in the same vein as the Winter just gone, which in reality provides a mere morsel of hope for coldies.

 

West Yorkshire SLP, Precipitation and t850s out to 23rd April

 

 

 

JHs analyses provide a bit more meat on the bones for those struggling to understand the different viewpoints in here, with surface conditions much harder to predict accurately given the timeframes involved. Don't let anybody kid you, only this very week's weather is reasonably predictable, nothing further on. The scatter as shown on the charts in this posting and my regional one suggest FI currently starts around the 13th April with the doubts over actual synoptics, highest towards the North of the country, which especially revolves around a forecasted incoming depression of the Atlantic during this time. Things are largely panning out as expected previously, to be fair though.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79879-model-output-discussion-310314-onwards/?p=2952890

 

Best Wishes

 

gottolovethisweather

Edited April 7, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[knocker]

Of course it's pointless placing any confidence whatsoever in the Easter weekend prognostications but I'm just following the ECM as a matter of interest to see what position we are in by the end of the week. It hasn't differed enormously from the last run but enough to significantly change the outlook for the UK. Move the cold pool slightly west and warm air to the east and hey presto a different ball game. Just exemplifies why it's madness to place any reliance on it at the moment.

 

In the meantime the melancholia induced by the weather of the last three days should lift after tomorrow and the rest of the week being not to bad in the south anyway

[ANYWEATHER]

What a difference between the ecm and gfs at day 7 [ T+144]

[Summer Sun]

What a difference between the ecm and gfs at day 7 [ T+144]

 

Indeed both GFS and UKMO show pressure fairly high over the UK on Sunday UKMO would give northern Scotland some unsettled weather where as GFS would keep us all settled

 

UKMO

 

 

GFS

 

 

Then we have ECM which is more unsettled for a wider area