Ireland Regional Weather Chat

[Neiller22]

As I expected meto update removes any aspect of snow generally right up to middle jan!! No idea were they came up with the snow outlook yest. As iv said before I really fear for this winter and it could turn out on a power to last years woeful attempt. U can have all things going for u but in this island sometimes it borders on impossible to get cold weather. Ah well least we don't have to keep our hopes up because that outlook is an absolute shocker for coldies. As MS stated a lot of people who are well respected are going to have eggs on their faces in relation to their winter forecasts. The weather really does what it wants.

[be cause]

meanwhile .. my local roads are rivers .. rain easing at last . Should be good floods on my backwater, Blackwater .

[ronan]

Neiller I wouldn't go as far as saying that they will have egg in their faces. Forecasts are put together using model output and trends showing in weather patterns. It's not fact. Alot of time and effort goes into their forecasts. If you watch the video I posted then it explains in alot of detail how things can change so quickly. I'm hopeful that come the New Year we will be see several cold spells before winter is out.

[Neiller22]

I'm not saying they don't put effort in nor am I saying that LRF by several people is a waste of time. What I'm saying is more times than not LRF are a very slim guide to what actually happens in the weather! No matter what positives signals we have in strat and models etc really anything past 160 hrs is to be taken with a pinch of salt! The weather really will do what it wants and no super computers seem very good at forecasting that. I'm not saying we won't get snow but what I think is it will be very hard to come by a proper cold spell this year. But I hope I'm wrong of course. Wouldn't be surprised if models flip again in a week because really anything past a week in models now I pay no attention no.

[The Weather Watcher]

LRF's will seldom go into any amount of detail in regard to what will happen, they will usually set out an expected synoptic pattern, ie drier/wetter, colder or warmer, stormy or settled. Regardless of which they say is likely to dominate, it is still very much possible to see this change over time with what model output suggests, which is generally why I recommend only following to 10 days max or to where divergence occurs widely in the ensembles. In this case, 5 days away.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Models to the rescue again this evening

[Neiller22]

It is getting ridiculous now. Now models hinting at an easterly. Fun to watch though. Never remember a time there has been so many confusing signals. Anything is still possible to be honest. !!

[stormforce 10]

Kreator usually fire out an excellent gig, have never heard of them having a bad set.

 

As for the models, I am salt pinching, too much divergence on the weekend still. Although this means beyond that we shouldn't be looking for any tell tale signs yet, until the weekend is sorted.

man they could have played for another 2hrs no problem.

[Abyss]

How's it looking for us, N.England and Scotland fc to get snow on Sunday, Is it all pain and rain for us?

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Yup, although R J Smith, thinks otherwise, who the f knows atm

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

The Boxing Day low seems likely to take a sharp turn south at some point between the Irish Sea and the North Sea, but cold advection is just limited enough to give doubt about snow potential in lower elevations. Anything much above 150m above sea level is probably going to get a covering of 3-5 cm and those between 100-150m are in the marginal zone where snow may come and go during the event. Lower down would expect to see some snow mixing in at times but not lying in most cases.

A few north or northeast-facing hilly areas in both Ireland and the UK could see 5-15 cm falls. As per Rodger, not so sure myself

[Daniel*]

Yup, although R J Smith, thinks otherwise, who the f knows atm

Well said.

[Neiller22]

At the min just rain for us but the way the models are going dont be surprised to see things change as they normally do nearer the time. GFS has done a complete you turn

[The Weather Watcher]

More like a mirror image shift of any snow risk, swiftly changed from the North and West to the South and East. It has added other options to the root for cold, but these kind of set-ups are the longest wait for us. Well worth it though if potent enough Easterly flow. That sausage high is probably the best example I have yet seen of the murr legend.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Borrowed of the Model thread, will await the MO forecast

[mountain shadow]

Morning all,

 

So, for Xmas day, mainly dry and frosty with only the chance of a technical white Christmas if you live on top of the Mourne's.

 

The weekend wintry low pressure may provide snow for a short time in the North East and East of the island, but will be short lived as pressure builds in. Things then should be mainly cold and frosty and seasonal.

 

Looking ahead for a decent snow fall, if the cold high get sufficiently far North, then any low pressure coming into attack from the South West will produce heavy snow ahead of it, this of course is all conjecture at the moment.

 

The model thread is ticking along at a fast pace, I can therefore only assume that snow is predicted in the South East of England.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Indeed Mountain all good for the southeast of England, fair play to them. Our turn will come, I am hoping for battleground scenarios

[BornFromTheVoid]

The PGFS looking quite cold this morning with some great potential as we head toward the new year, Scandi/North Sea high pressure with easterly winds. It also has the added benefit of causing temps to plunge across Europe, which increases the potential for colder easterlies into January.

Synoptically, the best cold charts for the medium term since March 2013.

[stormforce 10]

at last the sun is shining in roscommon.

 

could I just wish all the Irish weather contingent... a very happy xmas and peacefull new year.

[ronan]

Happy Christmas to you all. Feeling very chilly out today but the sun is shining. Hopefully see some of the white stuff in the near future.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just had an unexpected sleet shower!

Have a good Christmas everyone!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Hmmm from the Met Office

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

And a warning, we shall see

[BornFromTheVoid]

Space station just passed by. Told the 6 year old foster sister it was Santa, she seemed a little sceptical though. So proud, I'll turn her into a scientist yet!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Seen it and had the weans out telling them the same Born. Had them scared stupid saying that Santa has forgot to stop in Ireland