September 2014 CET forecasts

[Don]

According to global warming on TWO he reckons the CET will be up to 15.54 by the 12th. Why couldn't we have had this weather last month?

 

Because it was the peak holiday period and Britain wouldn't be Britain if it were warm and settled lol!  However, although August 2014 was the coldest for 21 years, it was still far, far better than the likes of August 2008 which actually produced a CET of 16.2C, admittedly mainly due to mild nights.  That month was absolutely dreadful, particularly in the south west.

[Great Plum]

Late again! 14.3c please

[Roger J Smith]

Daily and cumulative normals for CET in September (1981-2010)

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ max __ min

 

01 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 _____ 21.8 __ 7.1

02 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 _____ 22.6 __ 7.6

03 ___ 15.3 __ 15.4 _____ 20.2 __ 8.2

04 ___ 14.7 __ 15.2 _____ 20.7 __ 7.7

05 ___ 15.2 __ 15.2 _____ 22.4 __ 8.1

06 ___ 15.1 __ 15.2 _____ 20.8 __ 8.5

07 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.1 __ 8.6

08 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.3 __ 8.9

09 ___ 14,7 __ 15,1 _____ 19.8 __ 9.2

10 ___ 14.7 __ 15.0 _____ 19.2 __ 8.6

 

11 ___ 14.8 __ 15.0 _____ 20.3 __ 8.1

12 ___ 14.4 __ 15.0 _____ 20.4 __ 8.1

13 ___ 13.9 __ 14.9 _____ 19.4 __ 6.7

14 ___ 13.7 __ 14.8 _____ 19.3 __ 6.7

15 ___ 13.6 __ 14.7 _____ 18.8 __ 7.9

16 ___ 13.7 __ 14.7 _____ 19.6 __ 8.1

17 ___ 13.8 __ 14.6 _____ 20.4 __ 8.1

18 ___ 13.9 __ 14.6 _____ 19.7 __ 6.9

19 ___ 13,6 __ 14,5 _____ 20.9 __ 7.4

20 ___ 14.0 __ 14.5 _____ 18.4 __ 6.8

 

21 ___ 13.7 __ 14.5 _____ 21.4 __ 6.5

22 ___ 13.8 __ 14.4 _____ 18.7 __ 6.3

23 ___ 13.5 __ 14.4 _____ 18.3 __ 6.0

24 ___ 12.8 __ 14.3 _____ 18.3 __ 6.7

25 ___ 12.7 __ 14.3 _____ 19.4 __ 7.4

26 ___ 12.8 __ 14.2 _____ 18.4 __ 6.0

27 ___ 12.9 __ 14.2 _____ 19.0 __ 6.1

28 ___ 13.2 __ 14.1 _____ 18.9 __ 4.9

29 ___ 13,1 __ 14,1 _____ 19.7 __ 5.5

30 ___ 12.8 __ 14.04 ____ 20.0 __ 6.3

 

(showed the second digit for 30th just to indicate it's almost 14.1 for a modern CET value)

 

this month I have included the records from my tables in the historical weather section. You can look there if you want to know what years they occurred in (1772 to 2013).

Edited November 5, 2014 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

15.1c to the 2nd

 

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[Milhouse]

The highest daily mean of 21.4c on the 21st really stands out. Bet that was recorded in 2006.

[reef]

The highest daily mean of 21.4c on the 21st really stands out. Bet that was recorded in 2006.

It was indeed 2006. Its probably about the maximum you can reach at that time of the year. 1st October 1985 (20.2C), 1st October 2011 (20.1C) and 3rd October (19.8C) were also very impressive.

 

In fact, the 2011 period from 29th September to 3rd October was exceptional:

 

29/09: 19.7C

30/09: 20.0C

01/10: 20.1C

02/10: 17.9C

03/10: 19.8C

 

Only around 7.5C - 8.0C above average!

[Summer Sun]

Up-to 15.8c to the 3rd

 

1.0c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

up-to 16.1c to the 4th

 

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average

[TonyH]

Off to a warm start!

[Summer Sun]

up-to 16.2c to the 5th

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

Edited September 6, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Don]

up-to 16.2c to the 5th

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

 

Back to the 2014 norm then after the cool August!

[Weather26]

So after the August blip it's a case of here we go again in terms of above average months.

[damianslaw]

Whilst the outlook is a warm one, with appreciably above average values, certainly no guarantee at this stage of an above average finish, minima over the coming week will keep overall values down, and a cool down from the north later in the month could easily hold temperatures closer to average, but yes there is a strong chance of another above average month.

[Summer Sun]

16.2c to the 6th

 

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

15.9c to the 7th

 

1.2c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

15.5c to the 8th

 

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average

[Summer Sun]

15.3c to the 9th

 

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[TonyH]

The cool nights having effect, should be on the up shortly again.

[Summer Sun]

15.3c to the 10th

 

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average

[summer blizzard]

GFS6z to me looks like producing a CET between 14 and 15C by the 20th.

[BlueHedgehog074]

I think had I remembered to make a guess before September started, probably would have gone for a CET estimation of 14.5*C.

[Dancerwithwings]

" CET estimation of 14.5*C.".............BANK!!!!

[Summer Sun]

15.2c to the 11th

 

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average

[TonyH]

Agree that a 14's finish looks likely.

[Summer Sun]

15.1c to the 12th

 

0.7c above the 61 to 90 average