Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat

[Winter Cold]

Thanks for the charts guys. Its looking good isnt it

 

When exactly is the PPN forecast? Is the snow Friday evening a bonus? I know there is talk of Saturday. Is Saturday another front?

[Cheese Rice]

EURO4 a horror show with the front barely scraping the midlands.

 

Fergie's post in the mod thread highlighted uncertainty amongst the models.

 

Fax charts show the middle ground solution.

[summer blizzard]

How are the mornings runs looking for tomorrow.

[Love Snow]

@fergieweather: W COUNTRY CONT'D Favoured track roughly mid-Wales across to Essex. Thus key snow threat will be across central England (Midlands n'ward)...

[The PIT]

Quick look at things using John Holmes guide and it's still marginal but a lot better than yesterday. Where I live still more likely wet and cold though may see some sleet.

[summer blizzard]

BBC has me at 2C with an easterly wind and light rain. Very marginal.

[The PIT]

For me it did say sleet earlier now says heavy rain.

[Mark Bayley]

Yes, a marginal situation. 6Z NMM has a period of heavy sleet for lower ground of our region, although a notable snow event for the Pennines. I still reckon (for my part of the region) that western Sheffield will do quite well. Its going to come down to forecasting on the day

[The PIT]

I think the warnings are getting some elsewhere on these forums over excited. I would think we're at the very southern most edge anybody further south is 100% rain. Any shift further south will of course leave us the dry zone. Could all be off by the evening update.

[Winter Cold]

Well the yellow warning is now much more extensive and covers all of Yorkshire, so im hopeful

 

It says a few cm for even low ground so i think we'll all see snow.

 

A Very Merry Christmas to my fellow weather friends :smiliz19:

[The PIT]

Well the yellow warning is now much more extensive and covers all of Yorkshire, so im hopeful

 

It says a few cm for even low ground so i think we'll all see snow.

 

A Very Merry Christmas to my fellow weather friends :smiliz19:

That's the met office being cautious. Same last winter with conditions even less favorable. Anyway lets see what the evening runs say.

[Mark Bayley]

Several cm's over high ground on the GEM, although again sleety away from higher regions. Will see where the 12z's leave us

 

[Harsh Climate]

Looks very good our snow chances on friday into saturday My only fear is though, that the low may take a more southerly track than expected and we miss the heaviest of the precipitation.....?

 

Do you believe the GFS (OP) or the GFS (Parallel), I'm hoping the parallel is closer to the mark ; ).

[Mark Bayley]

The ECM is the furthest south, with the heaviest precipitation in the south of our region (snow to the hills).

Edited December 25, 2014 by Mark Bayley

[Cheese Rice]

The EURO 4 has pushed the front further south, the latest run pushes it back a touch north so it just skirts this area.

 

We need the front further north asap so hopefully this small northward progression becomes a trend.

 

The current track isn't anything special for southern areas, the chart below screams wet snow.

 

[Harsh Climate]

The ECM is the furthest south, with the heaviest precipitation in the south of our region (snow to the hills).

 

I disagree, the ECM is good for our snow chances friday/saturday. Better than the GFS(O) and NAE precipitation maps.

Let's hope the bbc graphics aren't far off the mark, but wouldn't be suprised if this downgraded by tomorrow and we miss out all together..

 

 

(For some reason it doesn't let you copy properly, that big blob of snow is heading straight for our region though. )

Edited December 25, 2014 by Harsh Climate

[Cheese Rice]

I disagree, the ECM is good for our snow chances friday/saturday. Better than the GFS(O) and NAE precipitation maps.

 

Usually I'd say stick the higher resolution short range models at this stage but hopefully they are on to something.

[feb1991blizzard]

[Mark Bayley]

I meant the ECM is furtherest south with the precipitation, although yes it is one of the better projections for our snow chances. Although, as alluded to by CH, its maybe best to stick to higher resolution models

Edited December 25, 2014 by Mark Bayley

[Barry12]

Looking at the GFS snow charts things look good, Friday 9pm-12 looks like the most likely chance of snow.

[Harsh Climate]

Latest bbc forecast was poor recording tommorows snow chances, only south yorkshire really seeing any snow at all. Big 12z runs coming up, we really need a more northwards correction on this low.

[Craigers]

I'm off to the peakdistrict on Saturday so that should be interesting :-D

[The PIT]

Craigers you should be fine remember unlikely to be any gritting esp Derbyshire side to due to spending cuts so don't go to fast. Last year they weren't gritting the major routes so as soon as you went from Sheffield into Derbyshire it was mmmm yup this is dodgy I don't need people flashing me or the site of cars on the roofs to tell me that.

Okay tonight's run more positive. What I expect is away from high ground the prec will start as rain as the night goes on it will turn to more to snow before dying away. I slight covering away from the peak district in Sheffield  and nothing low down. However on high ground say 1000ft plus this likely to start as Snow giving a good covering.

Edited December 25, 2014 by The PIT

[summer blizzard]

Praise be to the BBC, widespread snow now forecast on the TV.

I'm assuming their own private models are telling them this because the one available to us barely gets this far north.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Looking at latest NMM the "sweet spot" (heaviest precip with colder uppers) for snow looks to be around the Derby/Stoke on trent area. Obviously the heavier the precip this will help the snow will fall to lower levels. North of here into our region the Peak District looks like a good bet for accumulating snowfall, more especially southern parts. Anywhere north of Sheffield the precip looks to be light/moderate meaning you may have to find elevation for snow cover. Unfortunately a big downgrade for my area however I may head south tomorrow to get my snowfix.