Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat

[feb1991blizzard]

Nope that would take south Yorkshire out of it.

 

 

How would it?, you would get battered, as long as the PPN intensity was there (which it would be), 600 ft Sheffield would get even more.

[Cheese Rice]

NMM has pushed the front further north on this run.

However intensity is key.

Hard one to call, all models are showing slight corrections northwards so we could do really well.

Definitely a now cast.

[Barry12]

Radar watching tomorrow...........

[feb1991blizzard]

NMM has pushed the front further north on this run.

nmm_uk1-42-33-0.png

However intensity is key.

Hard one to call, all models are showing slight corrections northwards so we could do really well.

Definitely a now cast.

 

 

Yes, that's why I say some areas North of me could actually do better than me, it sounds a silly statement but I am right on the Lancs / Yorks border and thus places like Huddersfield, Bradford and Leeds are further North but the key is that they are also further East, although i still think anyone South of the Snake Pass will struggle to get a really decent fall to be honest.

 

CAVEAT : that's up until 6am Saturday, after that who knows?

Edited December 25, 2014 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpFL7H_TTAU

[Barry12]

So many conflicting signals! :smiliz23:

[Winter Cold]

Its sounding like radar watch day rather than boxing day isnt it

 

I noticed the graphics show another front pushing down Saturday day time too so with the cold air in place by then this could mean us all seeing snow again as it pushes south?

[Cheese Rice]

Front hanging around till 5 am on latest forecasts..

Before heavy snow comes in from the west

[Winter Cold]

Good update Cheese Rice! Thats looking decent for many of us isnt it    Good to see that other front Saturday i was talking about above being shown too.

 

Best thing for me is, if you look at the Met Office/BBC weather sites, its going to be COLD next week with only 1-3c maxes for most and well below at night. CANT WAIT   Waited so long for this again :w00t: :w00t:

 

If we do get snow, its likely to stick around for a bit to enjoy :smiliz19:

[The PIT]

How would it?, you would get battered, as long as the PPN intensity was there (which it would be), 600 ft Sheffield would get even more.

A lot more factors than the intensity of the rain need to be considered. See John Holmes guide which was the reason why I was saying this was very marginal this morning. The shift slightly southwards helped as this allowed colder air further south. Even as it is it will start as rain here and will need cooling of the air for it too turn to snow. Shifting it north would just leave us wet and soggy.

[Mark Bayley]

GFS 18z shifts north, albeit slightly. Still looking marginal, however dewpoints fall away as the evening progresses. So a rain to snow event away from high ground seems probable, with some minor accumulations. Higher ground (the peak district) will do well from this!

[NorthYorksWeather]

Very slight northward shift on the 18z op

 

[The PIT]

A slight shift not to bad 50 or more miles will be the death knell for us.

[Will Padz]

GFS 18z shifts north, albeit slightly. Still looking marginal, however dewpoints fall away as the evening progresses. So a rain to snow event away from high ground seems probable, with some minor accumulations. Higher ground (the peak district) will do well from this!

Hope so.... Looking for something to enhance that festive feel...

[NorthYorksWeather]

A slight shift not to bad 50 or more miles will be the death knell for us.

 

A slight shift is fine, moves the heavier precip further North towards yourself which will drop the snow line anyway, obviously too far North will mess it up for you however at 24 hours I doubt we will see a big change, just subtle movements.

[feb1991blizzard]

A lot more factors than the intensity of the rain need to be considered. See John Holmes guide which was the reason why I was saying this was very marginal this morning. The shift slightly southwards helped as this allowed colder air further south. Even as it is it will start as rain here and will need cooling of the air for it too turn to snow. Shifting it north would just leave us wet and soggy.

 

I know but I honestly don't think marginality is any bigger issue for you than anyone further North, of course its an issue but its an issue for most of us, parts of the Midlands on Earlier forecasts were still going to get snow at a lot less Altitude than you, your not talking GFS here, marginality is properly calculated into these mesoscale models, always take the GFS PPN type charts with a pinch of salt as they have a known bias towards snow PPN type.

A slight shift is fine, moves the heavier precip further North towards yourself which will drop the snow line anyway, obviously too far North will mess it up for you however at 24 hours I doubt we will see a big change, just subtle movements.

 

Yes, I agree with this.

[Harsh Climate]

GFS 18z shifts north, albeit slightly. Still looking marginal, however dewpoints fall away as the evening progresses. So a rain to snow event away from high ground seems probable, with some minor accumulations. Higher ground (the peak district) will do well from this!

 

 

 

Brilliant, If by tomorrow the models continue with this northwards correction of the precipitation, many of us could well be in the sweet spot : )

Edited December 25, 2014 by Harsh Climate

[Craigers]

GFS 18z shifts north, albeit slightly. Still looking marginal, however dewpoints fall away as the evening progresses. So a rain to snow event away from high ground seems probable, with some minor accumulations. Higher ground (the peak district) will do well from this!

Hey Mark. I'm planning on snowboarding around the edale area on Saturday morning. Think it be good enough?

[Craigers]

According to metoffice it will be snowing heavy from 7 till 12am in the peakdistrict.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Not sure what the chances of snow over here in n.e lincs. would be great to see some snow on the ground again.

Edited December 25, 2014 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Mark Bayley]

Hey Mark. I'm planning on snowboarding around the edale area on Saturday morning. Think it be good enough?

 

Not sure how much snow you would need? I'd suggest several cm's for high ground around Edale (precipitation dependant)

[Craigers]

Not sure how much snow you would need? I'd suggest several cm's for high ground around Edale (precipitation dependant)

The place is east facing and is 300m asl. Need around 8cm+ so hoping that strong north east wind will drift it nicely. Looks like a slight upgrade tonight

[Mark Bayley]

The place is east facing and is 300m asl. Need around 8cm+ so hoping that strong north east wind will drift it nicely. Looks like a slight upgrade tonight

 

If the area of heavier precipitation reaches that area, then i think 8cm+ is achievable  

[Will Padz]

Edale is just south of me.... But not looking that good here.... Lampost watching and luck needed tomorrow.... Oh well turkey n ham pie n mash n gravy to make tomoz....

[Craigers]

If there's another correction north tomorrow during nowcasting phase we all be laughing :-)