Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat

[NorthYorksWeather]

Praise be to the BBC, widespread snow now forecast on the TV.

I'm assuming their own private models are telling them this because the one available to us barely gets this far north.

 

I am rather confused by the latest BBC forecast, it shows heavier precip reaching Leeds/York however this is what the MetO precip forecast looks like.

Edited December 25, 2014 by vizzy2004

[summer blizzard]

I can't copy and paste from my phone but somebody took screenshots from the BBC forecast and the precipitation is over Yorkshire and snow.

If somebody can look in the model thread on the last page or two and post it here that would be great.

 

I am rather confused by the latest BBC forecast, it shows heavier precip reaching Leeds/York however this is what the MetO precip forecast looks like.

Private models I guess. Will have to see what Fergie says.

There we go, excellent.

[NorthYorksWeather]

I can't copy and paste from my phone but somebody took screenshots from the BBC forecast and the precipitation is over Yorkshire and snow.

If somebody can look in the model thread on the last page or two and post it here that would be great.

Private models I guess. Will have to see what Fergie says.

There we go, excellent.

 

 

On the BBC precip chart above it looks like the centre of the low is over Portsmouth as shown by the arrows, however the precip seems quite far North, I would of thought it would be immediatley north of the centre of the low. Could be wrong...

[The PIT]

Doesn't look too bad for Sheffield

[Harsh Climate]

Here's a good precursor to how far north the precipitation will reach.

 

I'm keeping a close eye on whether or not northern ireland get any heavy precipitation, if they do the low has tracked far enough north and we are well in the game : )

[summer blizzard]

On the BBC precip chart above it looks like the centre of the low is over Portsmouth as shown by the arrows, however the precip seems quite far North, I would of thought it would be immediatley north of the centre of the low. Could be wrong...

Deepening low. Even if the low center is tracking ESE it may be deepening enough to force the front north.

[The PIT]

Deepening low. Even if the low center is tracking ESE it may be deepening enough to force the front north.

Well the more it deepens the further north it should go.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Well the more it deepens the further north it should go.

Lets hope it deepens then lads and might save me some fuel money 

[feb1991blizzard]

I can't copy and paste from my phone but somebody took screenshots from the BBC forecast and the precipitation is over Yorkshire and snow.

If somebody can look in the model thread on the last page or two and post it here that would be great.

Private models I guess. Will have to see what Fergie says.

There we go, excellent.

 

 

SB that forecast is out of date, that forecast by Phil Avery was based on Earlier runs, the graphic is still similar on Nina Ridge's forecast but I would expect the graphic to change based on the 12z runs and change again accordingly around 1am I would have thought based on the 18z's. looking further south to me now.

[Cheese Rice]

The graphics are the same on the latest forecasts for 12 at night tomorrow.

Edited December 25, 2014 by Cheese Rice

[NorthYorksWeather]

The graphics are the same on the latest forecasts

Screenshot_2014-12-25-18-58-38.jpg

 

 

Looks great for central/west/east Yorkshire, although I believe it will be a radar job tomorrow!

[feb1991blizzard]

The graphics are the same on the latest forecasts for 12 at night tomorrow.

Screenshot_2014-12-25-18-58-38.jpg

 

Yes but that could be because they haven't changed them yet, Normally they change by the 6.25 BBC forecast but could be different because its xmas, don't forget we only get 2 BBC website updates a day now wheras we used to have 4, BBC budget probably much lower these days, even when they don't expect a significant change, the graphics usually update to something slightly different as no 2 runs are ever going to be exactly the same, I would say a bit of snow possible but earlier it was looking like a really significant fall possible.

[Cheese Rice]

Yes but that could be because they haven't changed them yet, Normally they change by the 6.25 BBC forecast but could be different because its xmas, don't forget we only get 2 BBC website updates a day now wheras we used to have 4, BBC budget probably much lower these days, even when they don't expect a significant change, the graphics usually update to something slightly different as no 2 runs are ever going to be exactly the same, I would say a bit of snow possible but earlier it was looking like a really significant fall possible.

Did you not see the forecast yesterday? The front was no further north than Birmingham now it's up in Yorkshire.

There has been no downgrade as of yet from the BBC just upgrades so far.

[summer blizzard]

SB that forecast is out of date, that forecast by Phil Avery was based on Earlier runs, the graphic is still similar on Nina Ridge's forecast but I would expect the graphic to change based on the 12z runs and change again accordingly around 1am I would have thought based on the 18z's. looking further south to me now.

This mornings runs were also too far south. There clearly going with something we don't have access to.

[feb1991blizzard]

Did you not see the forecast yesterday? The front was no further north than Birmingham now it's up in Yorkshire.

There has been no downgrade as of yet from the BBC just upgrades so far.

 

 

Agreed but the NMM has slowly corrected southwards, we could still get something and what I would say is that the NAE used to over do the snow on the PPN type charts, the Euro4 is a better model overall but tends to under do but we could do with a hefty Northwards shift on the 18z.

This mornings runs were also too far south. There clearly going with something we don't have access to.

 

Could it be the UKV?

[summer blizzard]

They were also refusing to go past 12pm tomorrow well into the afternoon so its puzzling that they'd go for it unless they have confidence.

Agreed but the NMM has slowly corrected southwards, we could still get something and what I would say is that the NAE used to over do the snow on the PPN type charts, the Euro4 is a better model overall but tends to under do but we could do with a hefty Northwards shift on the 18z.

 

Could it be the UKV?

No idea about the UKV.

[Hurricane Andrew]

This mornings runs were also too far south. There clearly going with something we don't have access to.

 clearly the bbc weather are following there own models that they have i reckon it will be all down to reports and radar watching tomorrow

[feb1991blizzard]

They were also refusing to go past 12pm tomorrow well into the afternoon so its puzzling that they'd go for it unless they have confidence.

No idea about the UKV.

 

They have to go for it sometime so that's why Nina said they don't have much confidence on earlier forecasts, she's on again in 6 minutes so we get another look.

[feb1991blizzard]

Apologies for being wrong if this verifies but the caveat is, I don't know how recent it was made.

 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

No change on BBC but she still stressed uncertainty.

[cheese]

FWIW, here is the WeatherOnline forecast for Leeds:

 

 

This winter is already going to be better than last winter by a million miles and it's not even January.

 

Oh, and the BBC show light snow here on Saturday.

Edited December 25, 2014 by cheese

[feb1991blizzard]

FWIW, here is the WeatherOnline forecast for Leeds:

 

 

This winter is already going to be better than last winter by a million miles and it's not even January.

 

Oh, and the BBC show light snow here on Saturday.

 

 

FWIW I can see Bradford getting something (more than me) but later Saturday afternoon, not when the BBC map graphic shows it.

[Barry12]

Most models have it too far south for all apart from south yorkshire, but there will be changes tomorrow. A slight move north and where all in business.

[The PIT]

Most models have it too far south for all apart from south yorkshire, but there will be changes tomorrow. A slight move north and where all in business.

Nope that would take south Yorkshire out of it.

[Barry12]

The NMM12 on NW extra would have us all in it at 9pm-12 tomorrow.