Scotland - Weather Chat

[lorenzo]

Great to see the thread busier again and a warm welcome to our new posters today - nice to see more folks arriving on Netweather.

 

Join in, don't be scared to post or ask questions, also if the charts are confusing the Netweather Guides and Learning area is superb to get to grips with things, it doesn't take long to get a feel for what to look out for.

 

Great posts LS, you are all over this, those troughs in the meto fax charts are looking decent.

 

Things are looking up, and looking up a lot further up... 

 

Cold front from eumetsat carving down,expect to see more of this..

 

 

Couple of more charts from the 18z, icy looking thickness chart, the wonderfully cold looking 850 and 0 degree isotherm height, perfect recipe for Winter.

  

 

Time to check your local one of these devices is in order..

 

[edo]

Magic stuff lorenzo and LS...thankfully I still have a bright lamppost at my house despite many being changed to LED and dull ones at that elsewhere in the village

[Guest]

Cold and frosty at -2.5ºC when we got up at 3.40am, it was up to a balmy -0.5ºC an hour later.

 

I'm a little dubious as to how much precipitation will fall tomorrow, let alone whether it'll be snow or not. Any precip looks fairly light and patchy away from the north-west. Most places will not see any snow, HC you'll be lucky to get sleet let alone snow:

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=5

 

The latest GFS keeps next week's low quite far north, looks quite blowy but probs only cold enough for one of the most frustrating weather types, wintry showers (i.e. a bit of sleet and a single snowflake mixed in with the rain).

 

Latest UKMO 00z still hasn't developed the low much, it's all put back by 24 hours from yesterday.

 

ECM 00z takes the low on a similar track to the GFS, way, way north at +144hrs but big enough to still affect us. Uppers close to ok for snow to low levels, but still looking a bit iffy. Then to silence my rambling the low takes a sharp right at +168hrs and heads straight for us....

Edited December 4, 2014 by CatchMyDrift

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Aye, another winter tyre morn the morn. Currently -0.6 °C up from -1.2 °C when I got up. Gairden white and crisp.

 

Looking possible for a wee taste of some snaw for me on the horizon. Even if nothing particularly special at Fort SS, Soutra could be interesting in the weeks ahead.

[101_North]

Not quite as chilly this morning and no sign of a frost at +3c at 9am. Nice morning though. Looking at the forecasts etc. for the next wee while I'd be surprised to see even a single snow flake here. I'll still watch things unfold with interest and hope that some of you see someting interesting.

 

101

[Ravelin]

I see that Netweather is nature in reverse, as winter appears everyone comes out of hibernation.

 

It managed a low of -4.4C in my back garden last night and was still around -3C when I left the house just before 9am. A fair contrast in temperatures around even locally as it was +3C in Dyce when I got there 20mins later. As high as 5C around Stonehaven area one of my work colleagues mentioned, and he gets in early so that must have been at around 7am.

 

Can't claim my "not a cloud in the sky" again this morning, but it's not far off that. Misty in places, but light and only really sitting in the hollows. Personally I'm not expecting to see snow in the next few days, too many hills in the way when it's coming from the NW, unless it's a really big system. We do best for snow when it's coming from anywhere between NNW & E (possibly SE, but only if it's really cold). Then again, BBC weather website forecasts rain for us early hours of Friday when it's still very cool so maybe Cairn William (448m) & Bennachie (528m) just to our West will at least have a cap of snow when I get up tomorrow.

[snowy owl]

Another lovely day for a long walk. Wee bit cauld wind on the lugs though!

Much more cloud has rolled in and we've lost the lovely sun.

Still keeping the faith of seeing some snow soon.

[Ross B]

First snow warning of the winter out from the meto. 10-20cm above 200m and I'm just in the warning box don't think we'll get much but you never know with showers off a warm Atlantic!

Edited December 4, 2014 by Ross B

[Daniel*]

Some of you will like this

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1417910400®ionName=uk

"Showers will affect western Scotland on Sunday and into Monday morning. These showers will fall as snow, particularly above 200 m with a mixture of hail, sleet and snow to lower levels. Accumulating snow may lead to travel disruption through the region. Icy stretches are likely to form on surfaces, as well as strong winds leading to reduced visibilities and poor driving conditions.

The public should be aware of the potential for disruption to travel on Sunday and into Monday morning.

Cold air will move across the UK on Sunday following a frontal system on Saturday. Within the cold air frequent showers will form and push into western parts of Scotland in particular, these showers falling primarily as snow above around 200 m with a mixture of hail, sleet and snow to lower levels. Accumulations of 10-20 cm of snow are possible over above 200 m with some temporary slushy accumulations below this."

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looks again like the showers tomorrow morning will have at least a chance of being wintry:

  

It's showing up on the Fax charts now too:

 

I think the main difference between this and other 'close but no cigar' setups is the airmass is from a very cold source. If you look at the 500hpa temperatures they're borderline conducive to Polar Low formation. Now, that's unlikely to happen but it does show that, for Sunday into Monday at least, the airmass is very close to being Arctic rather than just standard Polar Maritime:

 

Met Office warning out for snow for Sunday (just yellow at the moment): 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=ta&from=rss&sn=F0C25B4D-538F-BEE7-E453-1509660B87A2_1_ST&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1417910400

[Ravelin]

Met Office warning out for snow for Sunday (just yellow at the moment):

 

"just yellow"...lol...some people on the MO thread would kill for a yellow weather warning of snow.

 

Thin cloud cover here in Dyce now with temp up to around 6C. Aboyne still just below freezing at last update. I'd guess at home in Kemnay it's closer to Aboye than Dyce in temperature as I can see from logging into my webcam that the grass in the back garden still appears to have a covering of frost (north facing so in shade of house at this time of the year and doesn't really see the sun).

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

As an aperitif, I'll take this.

 

Yellow warning of ice

 

A band of rain will move east across northwestern UK during Thursday evening and Friday morning. Clear skies will follow allowing surfaces to fall below freezing, giving a risk of ice on untreated surfaces.

 

 

 

 

EDIT, hold on, MetO have wee snaw symbols for me the nicht.

 

Edited December 4, 2014 by scottish skier

[Hairy Celt]

As an aperitif, I'll take this.

 

 

 

EDIT, hold on, MetO have wee snaw symbols for me the nicht.

 

Yeah it's starting to look like there'll be fun over the next week... 

[blitzen]

That's a nice ass you got there HC!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Yikes:

GFS 12Z wind gusts go a bit mental. Bearing in mind that's in knots, you'd be talking about 100mph widely across the central belt, up to 120mph at the coasts. Sustained winds don't look like a picnic either, hurricane force in places:

 

As a result of this deepening it develops a warm core, which mixes out the cold uppers after the initialy burst:

It then brings in a pretty chilly toppler northerly though:

UKMO looks a bit less extreme with the winds and consequently colder, which I'm assuming is what the Met Office are seeing RE the snow risk for next week:

 

edit: it does look as though the meteociel wind charts are, fortunately, mislabelled as 'noeuds' (knots) when it's actually km/h, so in fact gusts don't like quite so bad in reality:

Edited December 4, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[blitzen]

Those wind feathers on LS's chart. What's the ratio of knots - mph again? Anyone know?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Those wind feathers on LS's chart. What's the ratio of knots - mph again? Anyone know?

See my edited bit at the bottom - looks like it's actually km/h rather than knots. Good job too - a storm like that would rival and probably beat the worst storms of 2011/12. 1 Knot is slightly more than 1mph, so 90 knots would be roughly 100mph. The strongest wind gusts are around 65-70mph so not actually as bad as some previous recent storms when gusts of >100mph were recorded on the Tay Bridge.

Edited December 4, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[blitzen]

Thanks LS. Jeez, even although, that is quite severe and I hope it gets lost somewhere where it can't do any damage!

[lorenzo]

This December is starting well so much going on.

 

System begins with a severe gradient looks like around 930mb south of Greenland.

 

Anywhere between 945 and 955 on closer approach, will be interesting to see if it loses intensity or stays the course.

 

From netwx a good view of the wind profiles mid week, yellow warning for this at least.

 

Windstorm fits with the Winter forecast too so all good there !

 

Euro4 and NMM in house both show the trough passing in and the associated streamers in tow.

 

So we have successive cold fronts, decent thickness,  Ice warnings, a trough coming in on 'that' angle of attack, more streamers forecast over Sunday with further warnings and a yellow amber event for next week.

 

Boring Eh !

Edited December 4, 2014 by lorenzo

[LomondSnowstorm]

Look at the cold pool out in the Atlantic on Tuesday midday:

 

Before that, some nice cold incoming on westerly winds on Sunday:

 

 

 

All 3 major models now have the low maxing near or below 940mb central pressure (GFS goes to 931mb as per Lorenzo's post and nearly challenging the Braer low):

  

Rather chilly at +144, windchill must be through the floor:

 

Edited December 4, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[mardatha]

My hubby HAS TO get to the Borders hospital on Wed for a cardiology appt. I hope to god the weather holds off until night.

[blitzen]

My hubby HAS TO get to the Borders hospital on Wed for a cardiology appt. I hope to god the weather holds off until night.

It's horrible when there is a sign of bad weather incoming Mardatha. Hopefully it doesn't just hold off but does one altogether. You will just have to keep a close eye on it and if you have to, try and book in somewhere close to the hospital the night before?

[LomondSnowstorm]

My hubby HAS TO get to the Borders hospital on Wed for a cardiology appt. I hope to god the weather holds off until night.

I think it'll be fine for that - the wind doesn't look as bad as I thought, even on the GFS, and I reckon the Borders are far less likely to end up with either the worst of the winds or the precipitation than central areas as your location is much more sheltered from westerly winds

[Guest]

Latest ECM spits out another storm a couple of days after the one discussed above, so potentially a storm on the 10th into the 11th and then another one on the 13th.

 

UKMO looks to be on board with the first storm coming far enough south to affect us.

[LomondSnowstorm]

 

Normally pattern matching is pretty iffy, but some striking similarities with this one. The main difference is the strength of the vortex, which was much stronger in January 1984, which does mean that the progression is a bit different, but the upper air temperatures progged aren't actually much higher:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=1&ech=162&size=3 compared to:

Of course, conditions on the ground could be completely different, but certainly worth watching to see how it develops.

 

ECM Ensemble mean is toned down a bit but still pretty impressive for a mean chart at +144, uppers sub -4C at both +144 and +168:

   

Edited December 4, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm