Scotland - Weather Chat

[lorenzo]

Chart Geekery again.

 

In case you have never wandered into the stratosphere thread or wonder about the polar vortex and what it actually looks like, Recretos has delivered in spades.

 

It's one sorry looking bashed up vortex - which we should all be entirely happy about

 

Amazing imagery here  https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81567-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20142015/page-33?p=3082004#entry3082004

[101_North]

Temp up to 9c, raining, windy, miserable! Fingers crossed we can catch something tomorrow into Monday.

[Guest]

Both the ECM and UKMO 12z go for a cold north or north-westerly after the storm. Plenty going on

 

ECM sets up another mild toppler at the end of the run, if it ran a few more frames I think it would reload the pattern we're looking at currently. Not a bad pattern to be stuck in, given what may or may not be coming later in winter. As Atlantic driven patterns go it's hard to complain about it.

Edited December 6, 2014 by CatchMyDrift

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Hi Everyone

 

I just joined and would like to say hello out there to all the weather geeks (!). I didn't see an official intro thread so thought here was best as this is where I'll be spending most of my time.

 

Apologies if this is not in the correct place and for taking the topic slight off on a tangent. I'm from port Glasgow in Inverclyde and I think there's a Ross here who is also from the port!

 

Andrew (Grifter)

Another Port boy haha, good to see you. What area of the Port do you stay?? We might be neighbours!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Wow, EURO4 has Edinburgh the sweetspot tomorrow night (subject to change of course but somewhere is likely to end up getting some pretty hefty totals where the precipitation and the coldest air align):

 

Prior to that some interesting charts, particularly for the Borders which (strangely) could be well in the firing line tomorrow:

 

The problem for the west seems to be the thing that often gets us on the east coast thoroughly p*ssed off - coastal modification, with winds causing the 950hpa temperatures to sail too close to positive for comfort (although I suspect the intensity of the precipitation might manage to override at points, particularly with a bit of elevation):

Going to be touch and go for many I suspect, with precipitation changing from snow to rain to snow, but someone somewhere is in for a pasting over the next 26 hours.

 

ECM looks interesting again tonight, A sufficient looking cold pool remaining by Wednesday afternoon for at least some interest, given that the initial cold wave with some -6/-7C uppers moves in on Tuesday night:

 

 

 

Thursday, if it came off, would be something else for central Scotland, with straight westerly gales and -6C uppers:

 

and UKMO isn't far off it:

By Friday the northwesterly transition kicks in, but the uppers are still good enough for snow, especially given the increasingly northerly source for the air:

 

 

And then the run finishes off with a real flourish. A slack northwesterly with deep Arctic cold in situ and potential for shortwave development on Saturday:

 

 

and then on Sunday we see some shortwave popping up to deliver some more snow in the slow moving cold air:

 

 

 

 

Incredibly, things seem if anything to have upgraded in the past 24 hours, with cross model agreement on some of the best cold westerly synoptics seen in years. It may not come off quite as planned, but given that we're achieving this without any northerly blocking at the start of a winter which has been touted to start in late December/early January at the earliest, it's pretty good going. 

[snawbaw]

So will this snow event thingy be happening in the Highlands (Glengarry)? Or is the central belt going to be getting aw the snaw?  Please tell me that is not the case, I'm about 100m asl.

[Michael Kaii]

hey everybody back in after my summer away lol

 

whats the chances of snow in whitburn west lothian?

 

many thanks

[LomondSnowstorm]

So will this snow event thingy be happening in the Highlands (Glengarry)? Or is the central belt going to be getting aw the snaw?  Please tell me that is not the case, I'm about 100m asl.

I think you might do alright, temperatures are always going to be a bit iffy the further west you go but Glengarry (if it's the right one, the one on Loch Oich? I think there are multiple ones so possibly not) is far enough inland that what falls is likely to be mostly wintry, particularly by evening.

It's difficult to pin down the details but there also looks to be fairy intense precipitation at times for much of the Highlands, and it actually looks reasonably favourable for it to be snow for all of tomorrow away from low ground on the north and west coasts:

A look at the accumulated PPN chart shows that Lochaber could actually be a hotspot for precipitation at least, and while snow might not lie initially I wouldn't be too surprised if you ended up with a few inches by Monday morning:

 

[LomondSnowstorm]

hey everybody back in after my summer away lol

 

whats the chances of snow in whitburn west lothian?

 

many thanks

Hey, it looks pretty decent, not sure it'll stick through the day (though probably at least some wintriness from 6am onwards) but the most interesting time is tomorrow evening when the heavier stuff moves in. On the MO hi-res chart West Lothian (which often hogs the central belt snow!) ends up with around 4 inches by Monday morning, which is maybe a bit optimistic, but I think you've got a better than 50% chance of seeing a covering of at least a cm tomorrow night.

[GulberwickWeather]

Temp dropping up here now (at a rate of about 0.7C/hr) was 8.4C at 1704 now 5.3C. Quite breezy, gusting over 30kts at the mo.

[snawbaw]

That sounds just about perfect.  Distinct lack of lamp posts round here so I'll just have to shine a torch for maximum flake detection. Thank you LS, I would love a snow day sometime soon. It's been tantalising the last couple of days with the snow on the tops, just wishing it to lower levels.

[edo]

Magic to see new faces.... Welcome and must be a good chance of wed storm happening if burntfish troosers appearing oot to play

Was up to 9 here and now down to 6c with a distinctly chillier feel

[dragan]

Think there could be many attacks from north west, and in betweens not that mild. 

[101_North]

Magic to see new faces.... Welcome and must be a good chance of wed storm happening if burntfish troosers appearing oot to play

Was up to 9 here and now down to 6c with a distinctly chillier feel

Just hit bl**dy double figures here at 10c lol

[A Winter's Tale]

I really have no idea what to expect tomorrow. I suspect that being not too far away from the west Coast some milder air off the sea could be mixed in so the precipitation should switch between sleet, rain and snow. I could really do with being a good 50m or so higher. Another factor in these set ups is how showers/features in a westerly/north westerly flow interacts with the topography so through past experience, there is a risk that there could be an unfavourable track of showers moving through or bypassing the central belt. Looking at the charts it is also difficult to judge how much shower activity there will be and the key times for snow chances regarding favourable uppers/dew points and when convection will be at its highest. I don't have high expectations for settling snow - although in theory a straight westerly flow with sub -5c uppers is a pretty favourable set up - but nevertheless it will be interesting to see what comes our way tomorrow and it looks like there's going to be at least a few more opportunities for potential wintry weather over the next couple of weeks.

[Gogoslo]

Evening all.

Just back from dropping off relatives and couldn't believe how mild it is. 11 degrees in car.

Looking forward to reading all the reports of snow in the next few days. Don't think it will reach this Far East but I'm sure our time will come. Good luck and keep safe !!

Edited December 6, 2014 by Gogoslo

[Polar Side]

Some great analysis LS, a touch of the January 84s about the synoptics !

Could get quite interesting tomorrow evening.

Edited December 6, 2014 by Polar Side

[Guest]

I really have no idea what to expect tomorrow. I suspect that being not too far away from the west Coast some milder air off the sea could be mixed in so the precipitation should switch between sleet, rain and snow. I could really do with being a good 50m or so higher. Another factor in these set ups is how showers/features in a westerly/north westerly flow interacts with the topography so through past experience, there is a risk that there could be an unfavourable track of showers moving through or bypassing the central belt. Looking at the charts it is also difficult to judge how much shower activity there will be and the key times for snow chances regarding favourable uppers/dew points and when convection will be at its highest. I don't have high expectations for settling snow - although in theory a straight westerly flow with sub -5c uppers is a pretty favourable set up - but nevertheless it will be interesting to see what comes our way tomorrow and it looks like there's going to be at least a few more opportunities for potential wintry weather over the next couple of weeks.

 

It's tough to call, I certainly wouldn't be getting my hopes built up to a high level if I was back in Kilmacolm. Having said that I've suffered too many false hope - let down cycles over snow in the past to have forced myself to take a step back from it as much as possible and take it as it comes (to a point). I think the best starting point is to expect to see at least a snow shower and hope that it is one of many. Unless you live up a hill then prepare not to have much (if any) accumulated snow. Then if you do get lucky it's a bonus.

[edo]

Yup I am right now just hoping to see a few flakes blowing around and look to next weekend for a proper event but gonna be good to be radar and lamp watching again....and I am desperate for lying snow for Xmas.....the kids keep asking questions like does the snow stay longer than just Xmas day.....they look confused when I say stained glass windowed if I know ask Lorenzo or LS

[edo]

Hopefully that 10c started to drop now 101 although I share your feelings that this will be a non event for us for lying snow but should see some wet snow falling hopefully then again seems to be all upgrades last few days

[grifter]

Another Port boy haha, good to see you. What area of the Port do you stay?? We might be neighbours!!

 

Hello Ross yes another port Onion here I'm in the Posh West of the town up behind the big Tesco. Really I'm about 60 meters up but tomorrow just might take a walk up the golf course to get some elevation if you know what I mean! Get away from all that pesky Clyde coast rain/sleet mix!

 

Where abouts are you in the port?

 

Andrew

Edited December 6, 2014 by grifter

[Ravelin]

One way or another it looks like a very interesting week coming up weather wise. It hit a high of 9.3C here today and felt quite mild in an at times bright afternoon. Temperature is now sitting at 7.9/3.2C so not dropped much yet. Not expecting to see any real snow this side of the Cairngorm unless the flow turns more northerly or any showers get pushed through rapidly. I'll be watching on here for pictures and on the traffic cams!

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Hello Ross yes another port Onion here I'm in the Posh West of the town up behind the big Tesco. Really I'm about 60 meters up but tomorrow just might take a walk up the golf course to get some elevation if you know what I mean! Get away from all that pesky Clyde coast rain/sleet mix!

 

Where abouts are you in the port?

 

Andrew

Since when was there a posh part of the Port!!   I stay in the upper part of the town, right beside Oronsay. Hopefully the wee bit of elevation gives me a good covering of snow, we do well occasionally.

[Frozen Britain]

Still raining pretty heavily out there and has been raining non-stop since first light today. I wonder when the wintriness arrives?

[grifter]

Since when was there a posh part of the Port!!   I stay in the upper part of the town, right beside Oronsay. Hopefully the wee bit of elevation gives me a good covering of snow, we do well occasionally.

 Aye you'll get a good covering up there, I usually here from people up in Devol while it's snowing there I'm getting rain here - oh well wait and see time I suppose!

 

Andrew