Scotland - Weather Chat

[Zenarcher]

Some of the hills in the distance have a covering of snow on them nice to see. Sunday and Monday still look good for Scotland very cold temperatures along with wintry showers.

[Hairy Celt]

Maxed at 4C, now dropped to about 2C. One shower sneaked over the hills this far - it was rain...

[edo]

nowt special to report here just wanted to keep the thread ticking over..looking forward to seeing the updated fax charts later....although more for others than particularly expecting too much in this area...still you never know 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Had a sleety shower when I was in school in the morning, everyone was going mad just because they seen the flakes!! Currently 2.6C with clear skies.

[Allyw12]

nowt special to report here just wanted to keep the thread ticking over..looking forward to seeing the updated fax charts later....although more for others than particularly expecting too much in this area...still you never know

I'm not expecting much for us to be honest edodfc

[cscrim]

Keep positive Ally and Edo, just have a feeling this next week may prove interesting for many in here, us included.

[LomondSnowstorm]

A nice chart to start Sunday with, freezing levels getting nicely into snow range of <600m

with enough precipitation to keep us interested:

The FAX chart shows a few troughs embedded in the flow crossing Scotland, and with -5C uppers and sub 528 dam air in place all day and into Monday:

 

EURO4 has some interest from 6am-12pm Sunday with some accumulations flagged up - up to an inch for Fife, the Borders and higher bits of the Central Belt and 2-4 inches for the Highlands (just south of Inverness on this run is a hotspot) and into Perthshire. Lack of accumulations further south looks down to lack of precipitation intensity rather than lack of cold, but from the GFS precip and FAX charts I suspect this will be rectified later in the day:

   

 

After that, cross model agreement on a more northerly flow for Monday, although troughing features and precipitation amounts still to be decided when it gets into mesoscale range, and then the storm:

 

Again, a bit of disagreement here regarding the position of the low, the depth and extent of the coldest upper air temperatures and whether we get a full on cold northerly with the GFS in the aftermath or another low phasing to prolong the westerly flow with the ECM, but every run gives at least the potential for some snowy periods. The closest to a 'nailded on' part of its track is the initial warm sector (maybe with the frontal rain preceded by snow and freezing rain early Tuesday) followed by the cold front and rain to snow event on Tuesday night. After that, the initial cold pool looks likely to wane, but a second one is likely to arrive, whether directly from the west or in a similar vain to the early January '84 charts where the flow shifts from westerly to northwesterly to northerly as the cold air rattles through. The latter might be better in the long term, as the mid Atlantic ridging required to give a northerly would send some much needed WAA into Greenland and also divert the next low on the same NW-SE trajectory, but the straight westerly cold could turn out to be pretty snowy. All in all, lots of interest in the forecast and the potential for falling snow almost anywhere in the next week.

[Hairy Celt]

0C now and a slight frost on cars etc. Gonna be a yo-yo affair the next few days I feel.

[edo]

Hi ally good to see you back.....after seeing LS latest charts and motivating words from cscrim I do feel freshly motivated... I do love how LS picks all the charts out you would want to go and dig out yourself....topman!!

I was certainly not complaining as loving the interest the next period of weather is unfolding...some great weather watching coming up

[NorthernRab]

Widespread frost here, on all the roofs, cars, grass and pavements. Surprisingly not that cold in terms of air temp here at -0.9'C but there's a steady wind of around 8mph with slight gusts making it feel -6.C.

A nice winter's evening, I'm happy. Now bring on the snow over the next 72 hrs!

Edited December 5, 2014 by NorthernRab

[Sraigcaife]

Evening all, been too long..........

It's amazing where we are now in terms of the weather, it was only a couple of weeks ago that we were having above average temps mixed with dull and damp conditions.

How quick the tables have turned ;-)

[Sraigcaife]

Hopefully see aerial images like this soon !!

[Northernlights]

Well our wandering black cat has returned after a week away visiting the neighbours and is currently hugging the rayburn with all four paws. The other cats are all lapping  up the heat as well . Cat models say yes to snow coming.

 

Young Mr. Northernlights was working on another farm today where there are a lot of liveried horses.They were all galloping around the paddocks nearly all day ,most unusual behaviour and concern was growing that they might slip on the frosty grass and injure themselves. Horses say yes too.Currently 0.5c

[LomondSnowstorm]

Pub run amplifies the first low a bit more (consequently giving very marginally less cold uppers through Sunday but not notably so), forcing the following storm a bit further north, which keeps the stream of -5C uppers over central Scotland instead of northern England, as it was in the 12Z, although then fails to give such an intense northerly as early. We get the equivalent of striking gold though in managing to keep an almost continuous sub 528 dam, sub -5C upper setup in place from Tuesday night through to Friday:   

The real reward comes on Thursday night on this run, when a 'kink' in the flow delivers some very intense snow:

 

The tradeoff is that we then get an initially 'warm' northerly instead of the Arctic blast in FI of the 12Z, but fortunately the wishbone effect comes into play and, aside from the poor folk Inverness northwards who manage to both miss out on the snowfall and end up with warm air when the northerly finally kicks in, we stay mostly dry and cool at the surface:

and it does get there in the end:

 

Again, all open to change, but interesting that there's sufficient wintry interest that downgrades to some pieces of the puzzle appear to lead to upgrades to others. 

I think that's worthy of a nice steady ramp, with safety railings attached  :

Edited December 5, 2014 by LomondSnowstorm

[Guest]

Not long in from work, I think LS has covered all bases. A lovely cold -3ºC in my back garden. All we need is half an inch of snow at some point in the next four months and this winter will surpass last winter.

[NUT]

The cold last few days has probably been a lot more interesting than the whole of last winter. Was a cracking day which has ultimately lead to a cold night but the cloud should start rolling in soon which will give us a brief milder blip before sunday

[Benvironment]

Wahey!  First subzero temp since Spring here just now.  Dipped to -0.8C.  Not cold by Central Belt standards but up here it never gets REALLY cold at night.

 

I was up on Meall nan Tarmachan today and it gave good views over to Beinn Ghlas.  Not much more than a dusting but it certainly looked suitably wintry today   Really enjoying this seasonal weather, and good to see everyone on here again

 

[Guest]

Here's this morning's latest FAX charts for the next 48hrs, plenty of interest:

 

 

Edit: The +60hrs FAX chart is out, it shows an occluded front moving south across the country. This may raise the temps a bit but could spit out some precipitation, it would an 'oribble old 'wintry mix'.

 

 

-3.4ºC when I got up about an hour ago, the temperature has now climbed to -2.5ºC. We'll get the first of two mild blips in the next week or so later today, the other one on Tuesday into Wednesday. I'm sure we'll cope with this given the potential in the charts for some very interesting weather to be served up soon.

 

Watch out for a wee bit of ice forming if you're out west, it's been cold overnight (down to -4ºC at Glasgow Airport at one point) and the light rain moving in may leave some ice on surfaces. Not proper freezing rain as per my hoose on Xmas Day 2010, but worth being careful.

 

This morning's ECM is now rolling out, this could be pretty epic for parts of the west, particularly for areas north of Loch Lomond:

 

 

Still going 24 hours later:

 

 

Strong wind, frequent very heavy snow showers. There would be a lot of snow...huge amounts with only moderate altitude. It's quite unusual to have a cold westerly wind running for such a distance over what will be a relatively warm sea at this time of year. Plenty of chance to pick up some moisture to dump on land.

 

More editing (but it's snow charts so it's worth it ):

 

This morning's 00z Euro4 precipitation type charts from +24hrs to +48hrs show snow for a good chunk of the country, including some intense snowfall for parts of the south which came as a wee bit of a surprise. I was expecting the action to be in the north and west, although as LS pointed out the other day unexpected small features can and do pop up on the short-range models all the time.

 

 

 

Edited December 6, 2014 by CatchMyDrift

[101_North]

Not even a trace of a frost with a temp of +3c. Did get down below freezing yesterday evening with a nice early frost though. Interesting few days ahead but I suspect any snow interest for me will be reading reports from elsewhere. Met forecast does show snow showers at stages tomorrow though so maybe, just maybe....

[skyeblue]

Drew a set of massive boobies on the wife's car at 6.30 when oot with the dog

back out at 7 for a smoke

boobies gone

[mistyqueen]

Well, what a change from yesterday! Temp barely scraped above 3c yesterday along with some sleet showers and snow on the hills behind our house. This morning it's 9c with horizontal rain. Sheesh! Midweek looks interesting, eh? I'd best stock up the fridge and start charging some batteries! Those charts are great Catch!

[Guest]

Drew a set of massive boobies on the wife's car at 6.30 when oot with the dog

back out at 7 for a smoke

boobies gone

 

Nigel Farage will be glad that they've gone.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Here's this morning's latest FAX charts for the next 48hrs, plenty of interest:

 

6th Dec FAX +24hrs.gif6th Dec FAX +36hrs.gif6th Dec FAX +48hrs.gif

 

Edit: The +60hrs FAX chart is out, it shows an occluded front moving south across the country. This may raise the temps a bit but could spit out some precipitation, it would an 'oribble old 'wintry mix'.

 

6th Dec FAX +60hrs.gif

 

-3.4ºC when I got up about an hour ago, the temperature has now climbed to -2.5ºC. We'll get the first of two mild blips in the next week or so later today, the other one on Tuesday into Wednesday. I'm sure we'll cope with this given the potential in the charts for some very interesting weather to be served up soon.

 

Watch out for a wee bit of ice forming if you're out west, it's been cold overnight (down to -4ºC at Glasgow Airport at one point) and the light rain moving in may leave some ice on surfaces. Not proper freezing rain as per my hoose on Xmas Day 2010, but worth being careful.

 

This morning's ECM is now rolling out, this could be pretty epic for parts of the west, particularly for areas north of Loch Lomond:

 

6th Dec ECM 00z +96hrs.gif6th Dec ECM 00z +96hrs 850s.gif

 

Still going 24 hours later:

 

6th Dec ECM 00z +120hrs.gif6th Dec ECM 00z +120hrs 850.gif

 

Strong wind, frequent very heavy snow showers. There would be a lot of snow...huge amounts with only moderate altitude. It's quite unusual to have a cold westerly wind running for such a distance over what will be a relatively warm sea at this time of year. Plenty of chance to pick up some moisture to dump on land.

 

More editing (but it's snow charts so it's worth it ):

 

This morning's 00z Euro4 precipitation type charts from +24hrs to +48hrs show snow for a good chunk of the country, including some intense snowfall for parts of the south which came as a wee bit of a surprise. I was expecting the action to be in the north and west, although as LS pointed out the other day unexpected small features can and do pop up on the short-range models all the time.

 

6th Dec Euro4 +24hrs.gif6th Dec Euro4 +30hrs.gif6th Dec Euro4 +36hrs.gif6th Dec Euro4 +42hrs.gif6th Dec Euro4 +48hrs.gif

 

Yep, looks tough to pin down precipitation other than that somewhere inland with a little bit of altitude is likely to see a very decent chunk of snow. Not clear to me why the main band has shifted from central belt northwards to the Borders (although there's still plenty of opportunities for snow in the central belt on this run too) but not that surprising to be honest, GFS has had the main snow risk a bit further south and west than the EURO4 too, although still snow chances for most away from the far NE. The snow markings on the EURO4 are more intensity than temperature dependent once conditions are favourable for snow but temperatures are still progged at around or above 0C, so I'd expect some of the blue could perhaps end up pink, or at least sleety, and vice versa, but then again the best chance of lying low ground snow through the day Sunday is if you do get sufficiently heavy ppn to push temperatures down to near 0C.

Critically for me is that the cold on the EURO4 hasn't downgraded while the best case scenario for Tuesday through Friday looks a lot closer to reality. Bound to be some changes but the model consensus at the moment has at least some part of Scotland keeping cold air in place for long enough to bring significant snowfalls into play.

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

First air frost of the season for me last night with the temp down to -1.4c. Keeping in mind the min for all of winter 2013/14 was -1.9c!

Regular readers will know my location is probably the least prone to wintry weather among members on this thread (though misty queen may want to debate that!) so if I see any snow this coming week everyone else will be buried ;-) My hopes for this winter are quite modest, I'd like to see a cm or two of snow on the ground for a day or so (last occurred here in Dec 2010).

Great to see the thread busy again,

[NUT]

Mild sector (think you can call it that) is here. Should be brief before the fun and games of later tonight/tomorrow