Scotland - Weather Chat

[Ravelin]

Quick check before bed shows a current temp outside of -1.9C, which I think is the lowest I've seen this year yet. Dewpoint was below zero when I got home at 6pm with the air temp at 3C so could be quite low by now.

[Guest]

A very frosty start to the day here, currently -1.7ºC with frost on every surface

 

I'm assuming that the "Visibility" chart on the WRF NMM on Meteociel is down to fog, otherwise I'm posting up a load of charts for nothing. If these are right then some of us are in for a foggy 36 hours:

 

 

With some fairly chilly daytime temperatures:

 

 

Some precip arrives on Friday, looks very messy on the way through but a reasonable chance to see a few flakes of snow:

 

 

The latest GFS spins next week's storm harmlessly out in the Atlantic, we'll see what the ECM does with it on the 00z soon.

 

The ECM-GFS 8 to 10 day chart shows potential for a fairly zonal westerly flow, but the focus of the high pressure does seem to be tilted slightly north of west which should help to draw on some colder air from the north at times, rather than a completely flat flow which would leave us in milder westerlies:

 

 

Edit: Latest ECM still keen on a direct hit from the storm and also a good slap from a secondary low.

 

2nd Edit: The 00z ECM would be very interesting, snow and wind for many. The storm is now into UKMO range, it'll be interesting to see how that looks in the next frame or two (metaphorically since it only runs to +144hrs). Sub 940mb low but will it head our way?

 

 

There are some excellent, exciting and downright dangerous charts out there. I no longer buy into the whole "oooo, let's hope that doesn't happen" stuff. The weather will do whatever it does and no amount of gnashing of teeth or wailing will change it. The best we can do is keep an eye on it all

Edited December 3, 2014 by CatchMyDrift

[lorenzo]

A few more charts to illustrate the fun and games for next week, ECM this morning draining the vortex and the UK is the sinkhole.

 

Round the North Hemisphere the jet is really fuelled, there is a roaring pacific jet and also across the Atlantic we have our divebombing profile, just need it a little more meridional to aid a block establishing, this is however the 03 December and plenty of time for that yet.

 

Wind speeds on the netwx suite are useful as in mph vs. knots as per other places, this is a healthy system with currently no sign of abatement on the modelling.

 

Our thickness and temp values, descent has no problem whatsoever ushering cold upper air. -7 or so from an already modified westerly flow is impressive.

 

And the result, satellite streamers and pepperpot convection, blizzard conditions here and there locally dependent on strength of cells.

 

Almost like the pause button has come off, Autumn remembered it had to send in a noteworthy windstorm and obliged by adding in some real winter cold. Game on.

[blitzen]

Thanks for your reply last night LS.   Very interesting.

Great post this morning Catch.   As you say, the weather will do as it wants.   As I was saying/thinking earlier, when these lows appear on GFS. you can almost guarantee that they vastly downgrade as T.0 approaches.   Interesting though that all models at the moment have the same system on approach.

Well it only got down to 1c here overnight but everything white with frost which is nice to see.

 

Hi again HC! I see all us sheep are starting to fill the Netweather winter pen again!   Erm....who's Mr. Brock?

BUS?

Edited December 3, 2014 by Blitzen

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

Min of + 0.5c last night so didn't quite manage my first air frost of the season. Hope to bag that by the weekend, looking at the models.

Currently 1c under clear skies.

[Guest]

Thanks for your reply last night LS.   Very interesting.

Great post this morning Catch.   As you say, the weather will do as it wants.   As I was saying/thinking earlier, when these lows appear on GFS. you can almost guarantee that they vastly downgrade as T.0 approaches.   Interesting though that all models at the moment have the same system on approach.

Well it only got down to 1c here overnight but everything white with frost which is nice to see.

 

Hi again HC! I see all us sheep are starting to fill the Netweather winter pen again!   Erm....who's Mr. Brock?

 

We'll be a wee bit clearer tonight and into tomorrow on the system when it starts to unfurl on the UKMO and the FAX charts. I'm going to stick strongly to the shorter range models before getting worked up this year. I barely bother looking at the GFS past 240hrs now, and even the ECM at more than 168hrs I don't take too seriously.

[Northernlights]

Breezy and currently 7c so no frost here. If next weeks storm comes off we may experience what I call old fashioned west wind snow as we are well away from the influence of the sea.    Seem to remember quite a lot of this type of weather in the early winter during the sixties.

[mistyqueen]

Morning Peeps! Well, it's a not so cool morning up here at 9c with light cloud. Yesterday was a stoatir o' a day, bright sunshine and wait for it.......white stuff on the mainland hills! Not a lot, but it's a start. I see some models are forecasting white stuff over the weekend, we shall see what we shall see, eh?

[Santi]

Interesting temperature changes as I drove this morning in the Edinburgh bypass. Zero degrees when i took the car at 6.30 this morning in Portobello. As i drove in the Edinburgh bypass (expecting the temperature to drop further) the temperature kept increasing to reach 5 degrees in the Dreghorn exit. Just when i was thinking there was something wrong with the thermometer the temperature start dropping again as i drove down to South Gyle. In South Gyle at 7:00 there was 2 degrees.

[Guest]

Interesting temperature changes as I drove this morning in the Edinburgh bypass. Zero degrees when i took the car at 6.30 this morning in Portobello. As i drove in the Edinburgh bypass (expecting the temperature to drop further) the temperature kept increasing to reach 5 degrees in the Dreghorn exit. Just when i was thinking there was something wrong with the thermometer the temperature start dropping again as i drove down to South Gyle. In South Gyle at 7:00 there was 2 degrees.

 

Morning Santi, welcome to Net-Weather That does seem a wee bit of a weird temperature change, I'd love to try and explain it but I'd only be guessing.

[Ravelin]

Two mornings in a row now without a cloud in the sky. I could get a nosebleed if this continues.

 

Overnight low hit -3.2C and it still wasn't much warmer than this at 9am, resulting in a good frost on the cars & grass. Not as much obvious evidence of a frost nearer the coast in Dyce but some on the car windscreens of those that have been in the car park overnight.

 

Forecast high of 3C inland, followed by fog this evening and overnight, it's starting to feel like winter.

[over_the_rainbow]

2nd frosty morning on the trot here. It does feel like winter is here, when you have that fond favourite of skating the kids to school 

 

Currently still -1, here and was down to nearly -3/4 in the night. 

 

So after reading the above posts are you telling me it is safe to enter the model thread? 

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Morning Santi, welcome to Net-Weather That does seem a wee bit of a weird temperature change, I'd love to try and explain it but I'd only be guessing.

 

Likely a bit of an inversion. Was -1.5 C and frosty the morn in the leader valley. In contrast, at ~360 m asl up Soutra, was a couple of degrees above and any frost gone.

 

Winter tyre morning anyway <nods to HC>, lovely frost covered back roads with a few decent wee sheet ice patches.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Interesting test of the NMM last night which it failed completely - minima were progged, by it, at around 2-3C here (Freuchie), but in fact it hit 0.2C here and it's still just 2.1C. The GFS (P), which the NMM models will be based off soon, was a bit better, but even it clearly had a bit of difficulty modelling the low temperatures:

Perhaps time to just accept the supremacy of the MO's Euro4:

 

 

I'd put the explanation down partly to the old GFS' propensity to give east coasters inexplicably modified temperatures off the North Sea, even in setups last night where there was basically no wind and it was coming from the west, and partly down to the the models mixing in the milder upper air temperatures too easily when in fact it was only really noticeable at higher levels.

With that in mind, Sunday could be quite interesting:

 

 

Both the UKMO and ECM look pretty much onboard now as well, although unfortunately the interesting timeframes through the day on Sunday aren't included. On the GFS(P) the coldest uppers hit around midday, with -5C uppers just heading in on Saturday night and still lurking over us on Sunday night.

ECM looks similar:

 

 

 

UKMO has very marginally warmer uppers but I suspect it might, if anything, be snowier, as the low pressure manages to dig further south for longer:

 

 

And this is reflected in the MO forecast: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gfj8p1wmj#?fcTime=1417910400

I think we really want as westerly a flow as possible, which will drive showers much further inland and keep showers feeding in behind for longer.

From then on, after a milder lull through Tuesday, the GFS (P) is potentially very snowy. At the moment Tuesday morning looks the most snowy, as what looks like a pretty hefty cold front brings a big rain to snow event:

 

 

The ECM agrees, although, having a deeper, more southerly tracking low, inevitably mixes slightly less cold air in after that, although still pretty cold:

 

 

However, looking at the depth of the low pressure thickness values are still borderline ok, so perhaps some marginal rain/snow setups on it:

 

 

 

GFS (P) is almost perfect in terms of snowfall, with the only slight warmer sector coming when a secondary low forms over us:

 

 

 

 

After that, lots of fun and games, with the low struggling to clear, cold air heading south on the low's westward flank and hints of amplification in the mid Atlantic giving at least a toppler northerly to finish. And that's without even mentioning the wind:

I think the above looks tame compared to some of the storms of recent years to be fair (remember the above is in km/h), but the ECM does have sustained winds pushing 40+ in some places (the below is in, inexplicably, metres per second):

 

Longer term, signs that we could end up getting some proper northerly blocking going into Christmas:

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/540075794903859200

A great start to winter!

[Ravelin]

So after reading the above posts are you telling me it is safe to enter the model thread? 

 

Never without a full Hazmat suit! Actually it's not too bad in there at the moment.

[snowidea]

Hi - first post

 

I'm not at all knowledgable regarding charts etc (I tend to use the met office ap) but I like a bit of snow so am eagerly following this thread.

 

Incidentally my met office ap is showing its first snowflake of the year for Falkirk on Sunday. Sadly there's a raindrop next to it, but here's hoping.

[Ravelin]

Hi - first post

 

I'm not at all knowledgable regarding charts etc (I tend to use the met office ap) but I like a bit of snow so am eagerly following this thread.

 

 

Welcome. Hang around a bit an before you know it you'll be reading charts like the pros. Well maybe not, but after a few months you'll at least know what to be looking for. The likes of the Model Output thread, a thing of legend, can get a bit 'fraught' but in here it tends to be quite chilled so don't be afraid to ask any questions.

[snowy owl]

Absolutely gorgeous sunny day here. Great crisp frosty start to the day.

Wish I could post pics - let's see if it works from my phone! Dog had a ball this morning jumping over the icy puddles.

Still riveting chart viewing. Feel like I'm on the edge of my seat with anticipation looks like some lovely snow possibities v soon too. Fab start to winter

[LomondSnowstorm]

Interesting possibility of snow showers on Friday morning on the Euro4. 950hpa temperatures below 0C, check:

 

Precipitation, check:

 

Air temperature in the right ballpark:

 

[Guest]

Brrrrr, it's a nice 0.0ºC with more frost forming. Last night's frost didn't melt in the shade. Plenty of model watching to come tonight, I have to admit I'm quite excited :D

[Guest]

If there are any more new members reading the thread, don't be shy. Start posting; anything and everything weather related (or vaguely weather related) goes in this thread. I didn't get to 10,000+ posts by not spamming complete nonsense for years on end

 

Any technical questions should be directed to Lorenzo or LomondSnowstorm. Defo don't be a lurker, a good bit of chat and banter makes it all the better, that's what this thread is for :D

[Ravelin]

Got home at 6pm and it was already -1.0C. Since then it dropped and is sitting around -1.6 to -1.8C. No sign of any of the forecast mist or fog yet though.

[edo]

Crewecold has wrote off December and January in the nuthouse even prompting an off topic post from johnholmes to say are you serious.....therefore nothing has changed but a lot of good analysis inbetween the nonsense....sense this thread about to get a lot longer in next few days....if my memory serves me correctly I think we do ok from NW setups sometimes as avoids the mountains that steal all our snow in a northerly...

Edited December 3, 2014 by edodfc

[Norrance]

Last nights frost remained here in the shade also. Currently 1.0C which has risen a little in the last hour. Last night was in fact my first air frost so even later than last year.

[Norrance]

Crewecold has wrote off December and January in the nuthouse even prompting an off topic post from johnholmes to say are you serious.....therefore nothing has changed but a lot of good analysis inbetween the nonsense....sense this thread about to get a lot longer in next few days....if my memory serves me correctly I think we do ok from NW setups sometimes as avoids the mountains that steal all our snow in a northerly...

Probably better for you if the wind stays more Westerly. Once it goes round to North West the showers tend to die out around Highland Perthsire. Aberdeenshire at least Aberdeen northwards often does well though once it gets Past NW.